Nic

Founder @coinbureau | Ex @GoldmanSachs | Mensa | Posts not financial advice |

[Nic @puckrin]

Everyone's focused on diesel - but the price of motor oil is also skyrocketing!

The price of base oil has increased more than 300% since the Iran war.

Shortages are so bad, that Costco is capping purchases at one per customer.

Walmart this week reported low stocks for several brands.

Motorists are getting squeezed from every direction.

[Nic @puckrin]

@Kryptofonk Bloomberg reporting it mate.

https://t.co/cQjBVdAWz9

[Nic @puckrin]

That didn't take long.

How long until the UK moves onto it's next Prime Minister?

[GB Politics @GBPolitcs]

🚨NEW: Andy Burnham will shift his messaging away from "hope" to preparing the public for "challenging times" and "difficult decisions" with Labour officials increasingly concerned the budget will be gloomier than expected

[@BloombergUK]

[Nic @puckrin]

@RobRastapop Why wouldn't he just wait till after though?

[Nic @puckrin]

The fact that Trump is considering escalating in Iran proves that he doesn't give a damn about the midterms.

[Nic @puckrin]

@xDisarmYoux I dunno mate. I think more people in the US care about gas prices than crypto legislation.

[Nic @puckrin]

Michael Burry just made Oracle one of his biggest shorts on the back of this news.

Banks struggled to sell the $18B in debt because of concerns around Oracle’s massive borrowing and declining creditworthiness.

Hundreds of billions of pending lease agreements is something Oracle will struggle to overcome.

Larry may want to refile those stock sales.

[Nic @puckrin]

Oracle's $300 Billion bet on OpenAI is starting to crack.

About $18B of loans tied to a data centre leased to Oracle in New Mexico just slid into stressed territory.

The banks can't find buyers for the debt, & phase one is already 7+ months behind schedule.

OpenAI has deferred its IPO & projects a $280B cash burn by 2030.

Last week Larry Ellison abruptly cancelled a $7.5B share plan, no explanation given.

Draw your own conclusions....

[Nic @puckrin]

@pauljun94 Yeah - it's a plausible theory

[Nic @puckrin]

@TheDenvershow Yeah one has to think. Maybe he thinks this time it will work

[Nic @puckrin]

The agreement between Russia & Ukraine to stop attacking refineries lasted less than a week.

Over the past few days we've had full scale bombardment including one of the biggest drone attacks overnight.

Diesel prices are about to go vertical.

[Nic @puckrin]

US diesel just hit a record $6.45.

The reason isn't oil, it's refineries.

The West hasn't built a new refinery in nearly 30 YEARS!

Over a dozen have shut since 2015.

The only regions that invested: the Middle East & Russia.

Both are now at war.

This isn't just an oil crisis.

It's a fuel crisis.

[Nic @puckrin]

People said that the Saudi East-West pipeline would take a "few days" to fix.

New estimates have it taking up to a MONTH or more.

That's a 5% cut to global oil supplies.

It may not sound like a lot until you realise it's equivalent % shock to the 1973 or 1979 shock.

Saudi Arabia will run out of oil stocks for exports ‌if it doesn't restart this pipeline soon.

[OilPrice.com @OilandEnergy]

Damage to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is worse than first reported, with three pumping stations hit. Repairs could take 5-6 weeks, threatening a route that had been moving 4-5M bpd around Hormuz. #Oil #SaudiArabia #Hormuz #EnergySecurity

https://t.co/tU1bL3Jgbp

[Nic @puckrin]

This is a generational ponzi scheme.

The share of people older than 65 now outnumber those younger than 5 - and it's projected to get far worse.

How can the world afford to age like this?

[Nic @puckrin]

As if the oil situation couldn't get any worse - it has.

The world is running short of supertankers.

And, it's driving up the price of transporting oil.

Moving crude from Houston to Asia now adds ~$26/bbl, roughly a quarter of the price of WTI.

[Nic @puckrin]

@jpnewell81 Really hard to avoid politics - especially now when it has such an outsized impact on the world

[Nic @puckrin]

"I am the house now, I have pretty good insight... you can bet against me if you want."

That was Bessent 2 weeks ago with the Yen at ¥153 & 10yr at 4.8%.

Yen broke ¥158 & 10yr broke 5%.

Seems the "house" he is referring to is probably a Trump casino.

[Nic @puckrin]

@jpnewell81 Fair criticism.

We were rugged pulled & fooled.

The moment that memecoin launched, the veil was lifted.

[Nic @puckrin]

The US Treasury is about to sell $354 Billion of debt in 4 days.

1. Mon: $92bn 3-month bills + $79bn 6-month bills
2. Tue: $69bn 2-year notes
3. Wed: $70bn 5-year notes
4. Thu: $44bn 7-year notes

But the size isn't what's important.

Watch the demand.

These auctions will give us a fresh read on investor appetite for US government debt across the curve.

Weak demand could mean higher yields, greater borrowing costs & renewed pressure across financial markets.

It could be an important test for the Treasury market.

[Nic @puckrin]

Oracle's $300 Billion bet on OpenAI is starting to crack.

About $18B of loans tied to a data centre leased to Oracle in New Mexico just slid into stressed territory.

The banks can't find buyers for the debt, & phase one is already 7+ months behind schedule.

OpenAI has deferred its IPO & projects a $280B cash burn by 2030.

Last week Larry Ellison abruptly cancelled a $7.5B share plan, no explanation given.

Draw your own conclusions....

[Nic @puckrin]

The chances of a rate hike in October just hit a record high.

Just one month ago, it was 6.6%.

Today, 57%.

The Fed's Hawkish hike this week coupled with surging diesel prices are driving this.

PCE inflation numbers in 2 weeks will be key.

[Nic @puckrin]

@FinanceLancelot Finish building the ballroom.