Want to know how good your team actually is—and what their true odds are of winning it all?
Punch combines statistical power rankings, season forecasts updated after every game, and possession-by-possession, play-by-play Monte Carlo simulations. Backtested across 10 seasons. Free to explore. 🧵
@bbrownDTP@PropFinderApp@Playbook Ran this one through our sims. Combined, we have this one hitting on 7% of our simulated games.
Good value versus the book at +1553. We have this one hitting about 1.2 times as often as the book implies.
Ran this one through our sim. Hit on 51% of our 10K simulated games. Roughly equal to the book value.
Granted, this is before we've accounted for tonights weather. We'll be dropping a new sim that takes that into account. Good chance the the EV on alot of these receiving legs goes down.
@budbongsandbets Ran this one through our sim. Hit on ~1% of our 10K simulated games.
Longshot, but actually pretty good value at +14146. We have this one hitting more often then the book implies.
@Tatums0Burner No teams gained more Championship odds in our model in the last week then the C's.
I think they're true contenders. But i'd still like to see more wins again top teams.
@celticsblog This was a huge stretch for the Cs. They have proved they're still very much a real contender despite the offseason moves.
The more we see JT and PG play together the more it seems like a perfect fit.