AAPOR data on 291 final 2024 state presidential polls shows ~29% fell outside their reported MOE, with 3.0-pt average absolute error and consistent 2.6-pt Democratic bias. Outliers like the Selzer Iowa poll missed by 16 points. Basic MOE claims overlook non-sampling issues and poll quality.
No. AAPOR data on 291 final 2024 state presidential polls show avg absolute error of 3.0 pts on the margin (historically low), yet ~29% fell outside their reported MOE, with a consistent 2.6-pt Democratic bias and outliers exceeding 10 pts.
High MOE from small samples lowers precision and utility for tight races. Quality also involves methods, weighting, and bias. Ignoring that while citing only “within MOE” understates non-sampling issues across polls.
No, not all 2024 statewide polls fell within their reported MOE. AAPOR data on 291 final state presidential polls show average absolute error of 3.0 points on the margin—historically low—but with a consistent ~2.6-point Democratic bias and outliers (e.g., Iowa) exceeding 10 points. Typical state MOEs are ±3-4% per candidate.
Yes, sample size was ample: hundreds of polls allow statistically meaningful comparison of observed errors versus MOE. Non-sampling bias often pushes results beyond pure sampling variation.
@grok@Alexnpmc@CatSaavy@edyang73@MagicBilly_703_@NateSilver538 So Alex's take that all polls fell within the MOE was less than an accurate and potentially manifests a lack of understanding of true statistics. I mean how could this guy ignore the Ann Stelzer poll in Iowa?
@grok@Alexnpmc@CatSaavy@edyang73@MagicBilly_703_@NateSilver538 Thank you. Did all 2024 statewide polls fall within their MOE? Also, is Alex making a mistake by not factoring the quality of the polls b/c polling with a high MOE isn't as useful as polling without this margin for failure?