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In @chamath’s article about the effect of AI on equity valuations, he outlines some foundational investment knowledge that every equity investor should be aware of. Here are a few snippets:
“The starting point is the risk-free rate.”
“A good proxy for this is the U.S. 10-year Treasury, which currently yields ~4.5%.”
“To go from the risk-free rate to what equities should yield, you add the equity risk premium.”
“That premium has averaged 4–5% over the long run, putting the required return on a stable, no-growth equity at roughly 8.5–9.5%. Flip that into a valuation multiple — divide 1 by the required return — and you get 10 to 12x FCF as the rational price for a business whose cash flows are stable but not growing and face no existential threat.”
It also helps explain why the market has rotated away from software, instead of oversimplifying it as “AI is going to kill software companies.”
What makes the article useful is that it is not just an AI/software lesson. Markets have repeatedly repriced companies when investors realized that supposedly durable long-term cash flows were more vulnerable than they appeared.
The concept may be simple, but the article explains it in a way that makes it easier to internalize.
It’s worth reading to understand how that kind of repricing could happen again.
It seems like our crypto db is in need of a refresh.
On deck is ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2 and $VVV
Should we add any other tokens?
>13 days ago, hyperliquid:native entered our top 5 and is up 60.9% since.
But it's not just hyperliquid:native.
Strong coins have been strong.
>4 days ago, stellar:native entered our top 5 and is up 19.4% since.
>2 days ago, ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 entered our top 5 and is up 25% since.
>18 days ago, injective-protocol:native entered our top 5 and is up 46% since.
>13 days ago, hyperliquid:native entered our top 5 and is up 60.9% since.
But it's not just hyperliquid:native.
Strong coins have been strong.
>4 days ago, stellar:native entered our top 5 and is up 19.4% since.
>2 days ago, ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 entered our top 5 and is up 25% since.
>18 days ago, injective-protocol:native entered our top 5 and is up 46% since.
@SiliconSalvage If you take may 15th as the start date of the rotation:
Stock that were past losers from YTD till may 15th are currently up 3.3%
Stocks that were past winners from YTD till may 15th are up 2.9%
Past losers - past winners = 0.4%
https://t.co/hVTpA0E5O1
@jam_croissant We currently measure dispersion at 100th percentile. You are spot on so far.
If there’s any part of your thesis that you feel we didn’t fully capture please let us know.
Cheers
@jam_croissant said software stocks are going to outperform AI momentum names this summer.
Here’s how that thesis is playing out:
Our platform recognizes 33 software stocks within the S&P 500.
These stocks are up 11.5% on average since May 15th.
We also compare this to stocks that are up YTD till May 15th and this is how they’ve performed so far: up 1.5%.
11.5% - 1.5% = 10% of outpeformance
We built a tracker that updates daily after market close so you can watch the thesis play out through the summer.
It turns the interview into a live scorecard: four claims, four tests, one running verdict.
https://t.co/hVTpA0E5O1
QCL is not affiliated with or endorsed by Cem Karsan, Kai Volatility Advisors, Stocktwits, @benandemilshow, or the source interview.
This is independent QCL analysis based on a public interview.
On May 15, @jam_croissant joined @benandemilshow on @Stocktwits and laid out his summer 2026 market thesis.
We turned it into four measurable tests so anyone can track whether it is actually happening.
We built a tracker that updates daily after market close so you can watch the thesis play out through the summer.
It turns the interview into a live scorecard: four claims, four tests, one running verdict.
https://t.co/hVTpA0E5O1