QuantMario

#Bitcoin | Quant | Ex-Glassnode

[QuantMario @QuantMario]

Why not measure Bitcoin in Big Macs instead of USD? 🍔💡 The USD is like a ruler that stretches and shrinks over time 📏🔄, making it tough to grasp the actual purchasing power of #Bitcoin.

With the "Bit Mac Index," we unlock a tasty new perspective on #Bitcoin 's real worth. Say hello to BTC/MAC! 🎉

The Big Mac 🍔 offers a juicy, consistent benchmark 🎯 across years. It's a more solid reference because it's tied to real goods and services, reflecting actual purchasing power. 🌍💸

Yet, it's important to note we have not yet hit a new ATH in BTC/MAC. 😱

Data sources: @glassnode @TheEconomist (https://t.co/m3N0h1OSUa)

[QuantMario @QuantMario]

@LynAldenContact Interesting. Do you have the first plot in a log scale, though?

[QuantMario @QuantMario]

Excited to share some new research we’ve been working on at @glassnode!

#Bitcoin spending isn’t random—it actually follows a fascinating and predictable pattern. As coins age, their likelihood of being spent drops in a smooth, measurable way. This power-law decay gives us new insights into holder behavior, from short-term holders to long-term HODLers—and even those ultra-long-term whose coins rarely, if ever, move.

Check out the full research below 👇

[glassnode @glassnode]

The investors’ spending behaviour in the #Bitcoin ecosystem, is far from random - it follows a predictable power-law decay. Our latest research uncovers how the age of coins directly influences their likelihood of being spent. 🧵

[QuantMario @QuantMario]

Daniel, your journey is truly inspiring! It's amazing to see how your dedication and intuition have led to such impactful work in the Bitcoin and environmental space. I'm grateful for our meeting a few months back, and I admire your relentless pursuit of knowledge and positive change. Keep up the fantastic work!

[QuantMario @QuantMario]

The ETF Flippening.
#Bitcoin #Blackrock #Grayscale

[QuantMario @QuantMario]

@CedYoungelman https://t.co/8giO7rJgxR

[QuantMario @QuantMario]

Why not measure Bitcoin in Big Macs instead of USD? 🍔💡 The USD is like a ruler that stretches and shrinks over time 📏🔄, making it tough to grasp the actual purchasing power of #Bitcoin.

With the "Bit Mac Index," we unlock a tasty new perspective on #Bitcoin 's real worth. Say hello to BTC/MAC! 🎉

The Big Mac 🍔 offers a juicy, consistent benchmark 🎯 across years. It's a more solid reference because it's tied to real goods and services, reflecting actual purchasing power. 🌍💸

Yet, it's important to note we have not yet hit a new ATH in BTC/MAC. 😱

Data sources: @glassnode @TheEconomist (https://t.co/m3N0h1OSUa)

[QuantMario @QuantMario]

@willywoo Everyone in Tradfi can engage in basis trades with ETFs and futures.

[QuantMario @QuantMario]

@moneyordebt Comparing flops with hashes doesn't make any sense.

[QuantMario @QuantMario]

Apparently, the only thing more limited than the world’s resources is your capacity to understand the nuance of economic models, Fred. Dismissing potential flaws in Giovanni’s model without any constructive criticism isn’t just lazy—it’s intellectually dishonest. Your tweet is exactly what I’d expect from Giovanni’s #1 fan boy, not from someone committed to serious financial discourse. Next time, try to engage with the argument instead of flaunting your biases. Verify that!

[QuantMario @QuantMario]

TL;DR: 🚫 The #Bitcoin Power Law's future price predictions are flawed for two reasons (@Giovann35084111 @dotkrueger ): 1) They ignore USD's future value. 2) Adding a quadratic term fits the data just as well!📈

The #Bitcoin Power Law's attempt at predicting future BTC prices is like measuring a tree's future height without knowing the future length of your ruler. 🌳➡️📏Even worse: it's trying to predict to variables at the same time. A better approach? Use BTC/MAC, anchoring #Bitcoin's value to the purchasing power of a Big Mac, à la the Big Mac Index by The Economist. 🍔 (see my pinned tweet for details.) This adjustment allows for predictions in terms of tangible purchasing power. The model’s steep prediction: 77 years post-Genesis block, a single satoshi should buy you a Big Mac 🔄🔮

Most importantly, a limited-growth polynomial fits the data just as well as a power law (linear fit).🚨 Adding a higher-order polynomial, like a quadratic term, actually improves the fit but significantly alters the timeline for achieving Big Mac sat parity—pushing it out to 200 years. 📊 Remember, the real world's resources aren't infinite; #Bitcoin's purchasing power can't be either. 🌍💡

(Don't trust; verify: I’ve used @glassnode 's full history of daily price data up to today. See my pinned post for a link to the Big Mac index data.) 🔍✅

[QuantMario @QuantMario]

@joshprf @Giovann35084111 You’re a genius. Good luck!

[QuantMario @QuantMario]

@jjcmoreno @Giovann35084111 @cryptoquant_com @jjcmoreno is right. I’m a Physicist and I confirm that Kepler’s law is not a time series!

[QuantMario @QuantMario]

@jjcmoreno @cryptoquant_com Thanks for your analysis!
I came to to the same conclusion that the model is flawed, but from an economic POV

https://t.co/bbWkEKFiQc

[QuantMario @QuantMario]

TL;DR: 🚫 The #Bitcoin Power Law's future price predictions are flawed for two reasons (@Giovann35084111 @dotkrueger ): 1) They ignore USD's future value. 2) Adding a quadratic term fits the data just as well!📈

The #Bitcoin Power Law's attempt at predicting future BTC prices is like measuring a tree's future height without knowing the future length of your ruler. 🌳➡️📏Even worse: it's trying to predict to variables at the same time. A better approach? Use BTC/MAC, anchoring #Bitcoin's value to the purchasing power of a Big Mac, à la the Big Mac Index by The Economist. 🍔 (see my pinned tweet for details.) This adjustment allows for predictions in terms of tangible purchasing power. The model’s steep prediction: 77 years post-Genesis block, a single satoshi should buy you a Big Mac 🔄🔮

Most importantly, a limited-growth polynomial fits the data just as well as a power law (linear fit).🚨 Adding a higher-order polynomial, like a quadratic term, actually improves the fit but significantly alters the timeline for achieving Big Mac sat parity—pushing it out to 200 years. 📊 Remember, the real world's resources aren't infinite; #Bitcoin's purchasing power can't be either. 🌍💡

(Don't trust; verify: I’ve used @glassnode 's full history of daily price data up to today. See my pinned post for a link to the Big Mac index data.) 🔍✅

[QuantMario @QuantMario]

@BritishHodl The power law model will be invalidated because it must break to the bottom after inflation adjustment. Without that adjustment, it’s relying on the USD to go to zero.

https://t.co/bbWkEKFiQc

[QuantMario @QuantMario]

TL;DR: 🚫 The #Bitcoin Power Law's future price predictions are flawed for two reasons (@Giovann35084111 @dotkrueger ): 1) They ignore USD's future value. 2) Adding a quadratic term fits the data just as well!📈

The #Bitcoin Power Law's attempt at predicting future BTC prices is like measuring a tree's future height without knowing the future length of your ruler. 🌳➡️📏Even worse: it's trying to predict to variables at the same time. A better approach? Use BTC/MAC, anchoring #Bitcoin's value to the purchasing power of a Big Mac, à la the Big Mac Index by The Economist. 🍔 (see my pinned tweet for details.) This adjustment allows for predictions in terms of tangible purchasing power. The model’s steep prediction: 77 years post-Genesis block, a single satoshi should buy you a Big Mac 🔄🔮

Most importantly, a limited-growth polynomial fits the data just as well as a power law (linear fit).🚨 Adding a higher-order polynomial, like a quadratic term, actually improves the fit but significantly alters the timeline for achieving Big Mac sat parity—pushing it out to 200 years. 📊 Remember, the real world's resources aren't infinite; #Bitcoin's purchasing power can't be either. 🌍💡

(Don't trust; verify: I’ve used @glassnode 's full history of daily price data up to today. See my pinned post for a link to the Big Mac index data.) 🔍✅

[QuantMario @QuantMario]

@paulewaulpaul @Giovann35084111 @100trillionUSD "All models are wrong, but some are useful".

[QuantMario @QuantMario]

@Umbisam @Giovann35084111 @dotkrueger It is! But it is not if you try to model BTC in terms of USD, which is subject to inflation, of course.

[QuantMario @QuantMario]

@Giovann35084111 @dotkrueger Alright then. Good luck with your "theory". Let me know when you've received that Nobel prize. 😆