Revenant

Economist & Speculator

[Revenant @Quantdom1]

1/n Lessons from the book Super Forecasting by Phillip Tetlock a top researcher from Wharton School. This book was recommended by @GiganticRebirth one of the best traders/thinkers in #CT.

https://t.co/z0Rhx9YsWh

[Revenant @Quantdom1]

@diamondhandjs BCN

[Revenant @Quantdom1]

@0xaporia This means that the "best" use case for crypto is to be a lottery ticket... which means that memes have the potential to do well in a new cycle... and then die like everything else.

This is the fate of 100% of assets w/o fundamental value.

[Revenant @Quantdom1]

Stopping for the day is a simple rule that has saved me tons of money.

Losses create a massive emotional response that turns into bad trades that turns into further losses.

This was specially true when catching knives or shorting rockets.

[Riz Iqbal @Wordsofrizdom]

The trade was never the problem. Breaking your own rule was. Take one loss, then another, and suddenly the setup that didn't look good enough ten minutes ago looks perfect. You size up. You ignore the plan. And the damage from that one trade ends up bigger than every loss before it. Discipline is easy after a winning streak. The real test starts after three losses in a row when the biggest threat isn't the market. It's you.

[Revenant @Quantdom1]

$BTC retraced pretty much the whole "war is over" headline. Not great.

[Revenant @Quantdom1]

Wise advise as always @markminervini

[Mark Minervini Quotes @MinerviniQuote]

"By pyramiding up when you're trading well and tapering off when you're trading poorly, you trade your largest when trading your best and trade your smallest when trading your worst. This is how you make big money as well as protect yourself from disaster."

[Revenant @Quantdom1]

@smileycapital https://t.co/viWEDEU4HI

[Revenant @Quantdom1]

$BTC price went up from 59.9k to 82.8k (+38%) from February 5 to May 6 (3 months).

Then, it went from 82.8k to 65.4k, in less than a month.

Stairs up and elevator down.

If stocks correct → we will lose 60k.

If they remain strong and war is over → we run a bit

[Revenant @Quantdom1]

Excellent video by @TheFlowHorse

Main message: many losses are self-inflicted.

It is our job to stop doing stupid things, and act like professionals.

[Horse @TheFlowHorse]

Good morning! Newest upload out. Theme? "Don't die"

Risk management advice you won't commonly hear when the most common advise is "Just risk 1% per trade bro"

[Revenant @Quantdom1]

$BTC price went up from 59.9k to 82.8k (+38%) from February 5 to May 6 (3 months).

Then, it went from 82.8k to 65.4k, in less than a month.

Stairs up and elevator down.

If stocks correct → we will lose 60k.

If they remain strong and war is over → we run a bit

[Revenant @Quantdom1]

@R89Capital Hi,

The thing is that lack of interest is correlated with lack of liquidity and it is precisely in illiquid markets where massive pumps appear. Some existing alts will come back, some new ones will pump hard, some old ones will die.

[Revenant @Quantdom1]

$BTC is looking strong and 90k seems likely. The main threat to this is tomorrow´s inflation number.

If inflation runs hot then the market will most likely experience a pullback.

On the other hand, if it comes below expectation, both $SPY and $BTC are going to fly.

[Revenant @Quantdom1]

If the S&P500 ($SPY) keeps grinding up, we are having a bull market.

Then, after we have our fun, once the $QQQ bubble burst we are royally fucked.

[Doc @docXBT]

There’s only one question that remains…

[Revenant @Quantdom1]

My $BTC long just printed

I was lucky as I did not expected that green candle. I am now taking a stab on the short side:

Entry: $81,674 (slightly lower than the previous high)
SL: 83030
TP: 81.913

Lets see if BTC goes to my entry.

[Revenant @Quantdom1]

@smileycapital 🤣🤣 then, you used the money from selling weed to 1. Buy small caps during the near and 2. Trade.

Which of those two made the largest chunk of your results

Thanks sir

[Revenant @Quantdom1]

Hi, in 2008 the banking crisis was driven by banks holding mortgage back securities (MBSs), which decreases its value dramatically starting in 2007.

This drop in price literally shrank Banks assets making them contract the supply of credit and hence affecting the economy through the banking channel. This has been widely documented in the academic literature.

This time around, the situation is dire but banks are liquid and well capitalized. Hence I do not think we will see levels even close to -54% on $SPY.

[Revenant @Quantdom1]

@FinanceLancelot @BryanLe82407387 This time we will not have a banking crisis. Hence, the impact on markets (-54% $SPY) will also be muted.

I mean, the forces you described are there and are important but back in 2008, the Global Financial Crisis was, for the most part,…. Financial.

[Revenant @Quantdom1]

@0xaporia A push back against this posture is that open trades during decisions like the ones of the FED should be treated carefully given the volatility associated with the news.

[Revenant @Quantdom1]

@worldlibertyfi Only bots are in favor of this proposal... bots that are paid by the team... SAD!

[Revenant @Quantdom1]

@Wordsofrizdom Hell yes

[Revenant @Quantdom1]

So far, so good.