Quincas Borba

Economist working in finance & energy for 20+ years

[Quincas Borba @Quincanomics]

QE doesnt directly increase the money supply, as it expands the monetary base through bank reserves that remain in the banking system. However, there is a relationship between QE/QT and a rise/decrease in the policy rate, likely driven by the asset inflation/disinflation channel

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

Bessent just said on CNBC that the dollar invoicing of oil was a factor in Venezuela, Iran, and Ukraine/Russia policy decisions.

Such wrongthink was previously considered solely the purview of “conspiracy theorists.” 🤔

[John Mihaljevic @mihaljevic]

The clearest 11 minutes I have heard on why the AI capex boom may not pay off. @ChrisBloomstran at the Zurich Project on the depreciation wall, ~$650B of off-balance-sheet SPV debt, and the circular financing between Nvidia, OpenAI, and the hyperscalers.

[Quincas Borba @Quincanomics]

@clashreport Full panic and hostility mode

[Sulaiman Ahmed @ShaykhSulaiman]

JUST IN: IRAN’S WORLD CUP TEAM ARRIVED IN MEXICO WEARING PINS WITH THE NUMBER 168 REMEMBERING THE 168 SCHOOL CHILDREN KlLLED BY US STRIKE

[Dawisson Belém Lopes @dbelemlopes]

Faroeste chinês: Xinjiang e Tibete crescem mais do que a média do país e despontam como polos de desenvolvimento social.

[Jason Smith - 上官杰文 @ShangguanJiewen]

@FT "FT analysis" is stupid and groundless.

Their language is EVERYWHERE and on EVERYTHING.

China has a weird way of oppression if their strategy is to put Uygur language on EVERY public sign in Uygur rich areas of the country.
👇

[Trita Parsi @tparsi]

This will ruin your day, perhaps your summer, or even the rest of your life.

But you need to listen to it. You need to know the crimes that are done in your name and with your tax money.

A British surgeon in Gaza testifies that Israeli soldiers used Palestinian children as target practice. One day, they would shoot the children in the testicles, and on other days, in their necks.

They were practicing their shooting on children.

[Quincas Borba @Quincanomics]

@adam_tooze @BrankoMilan Boom-time Japan was driven by a foreign hegemonic power

[Adam Tooze @adam_tooze]

In his latest @BrankoMilan calculates that, measured in terms of population-weighted-growth points, China’s growth was 20 times larger than that of boom-time Japan and more than 290 times larger than the growth of gilded age America.

[João Amoêdo @joaodamoedo]

O NOVO mostra mais uma vez que, com a atual gestão, se tornou um partido desnecessário.

A maioria dos seus políticos gostaria mesmo de estar no PL.

Os dirigentes têm como prioridade a remuneração que recebem. Apesar de defenderem o livre mercado, vivem do dinheiro público.

Agora estão desesperados para que o partido alcance a Cláusula de Barreira. Afinal, os R$ 100 milhões deixados pela gestão anterior no caixa, oriundos do Fundo Partidário, estão acabando.

O candidato à Presidência, assim como em 2022, é apenas figurativo.

Caso fossem pessoas sérias, os políticos tentariam um lugar no PL, o candidato à Presidência desistiria da “candidatura”, os dirigentes iriam procurar um emprego na iniciativa privada e devolveriam o partido para os fundadores.

[Israel Exposed @xIsraelExposedx]

President Truman explains that Zionists wanted the whole of Palestine and that the peace deal was a scam to take the land in small doses. May 14, 1948.

[Brian Berletic @BrianJBerletic]

US-Iran "Negotiations"

I warned that the US objective is not necessarily toppling Iran immediately, and certainly not stopping "nuclear weapons" that don't even exist - but to cut China and the rest of Asia off from not just Iranian oil, but all energy exports from the Middle East.

To maintain the slow but sure strangulation of energy exports from the entire region, the US has triggered a war damaging energy production and export infrastructure across the whole region, then placed its own blockade on Iranian ports and any other shipping it decides to interdict, as well as carrying out sporadic attacks even while "negotiating" with Iran.

The goal is to maintain this strangle hold, increase it when necessary, perform political circus when it needs to cool markets - all while creating the economic crisis it requires to isolate China and force Asian states under a greater degree of US energy dependence.

This is exactly what the US just spent the last 12 years doing with Russia regarding Ukraine - pretending to "negotiate" while constantly escalating.

This is exactly what the US has spent the last 47 years doing with China regarding Taiwan - pretending to "negotiate" while constantly escalating.

[Vladimir Aras 🇧🇷 @VladimirAras]

HÁ 78 ANOS: Muitas pessoas nunca leram esta carta aberta, publicada no NYT em dezembro de 1948.

Hannah Arendt e Albert Einstein encabeçam a lista de signatários.

No documento – que hoje soa como um alerta histórico diante das atrocidades de Netanyahu e seu gabinete –, eles dois e outros intelectuais judeus puseram em destaque o Massacre de Deir Yassin, ocorrido em abril de 1948.

O violento ataque àquele vilarejo palestino nas cercanias de Jerusalém foi cometido pelas organizações terroristas Irgun e Lehi, esta também conhecida por Stern Gang.

O Irgun era liderado por Menachem Begin. Alguns anos depois Begin se tornou primeiro-ministro de Israel.

Ele é o principal personagem da carta aberta de 1948.

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

This is pretty insane: the U.S. just tried to literally re-colonize part of the Philippines.

They did so under the so-called "Pax Silica" initiative, the brainchild of - surprise, surprise - an ex-Palantir guy named Jacob Helberg who now runs U.S. economic "diplomacy" from the State Department.

It's causing a big outcry in the Philippines, which is quite a feat given this is by far the most US-friendly country in Southeast Asia.

If you're the US and you're getting the Marcos administration - of all governments - to push back on sovereignty, you've really overplayed your hand.

What is the "Pax Silica" initiative? In a nutshell it's about the US getting other countries to commit to restructuring their AI tech infrastructure around a US-led stack. It's basically vendor lock-in: you hand over your critical minerals, align your export controls with Washington's, regulate AI the way America wants, and in return you get to be a US "trusted partner," whatever that means these days.

In essence, let's not kid ourselves, it's all about China: this is the US's initiative to "win the AI race" by getting other countries to contractually commit to keeping China out of their tech supply chains. When you can't preserve your lead through innovation, you seek to lock countries in contractually.

For instance as a country, this would mean telling Huawei they can't sell you AI chips, and telling Chinese firms they can't invest in your data centers - even if they're better and cheaper. It's not about choosing the best technology, it's about choosing the right flag.

But in this instance, the US went much further still: they literally tried to carve out 4,000 acres of Philippine territory (in New Clark City, 60 miles north of Manila) to be governed under US common law with diplomatic immunity - the first arrangement of its kind anywhere in the modern world.

This is according to the WSJ who ran the story last month (https://t.co/kydhIQfo2A) as if it was a done deal (it wasn't).

Heard about the "French concession" or "British concession" in China during the century of humiliation? Same thing: the US basically asked for an "American concession" in the Philippines.

Unsurprisingly, there was quite a bit of backlash in the country with for instance the Peasant Movement of the Philippines (KMP) calling it a “massive sellout” of the country’s land, minerals, and sovereignty (https://t.co/nkXSajH2Q7).

So much so that the Philippines' government - namely Joshua Bingcang, president and chief executive of the Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA) - issued a statement saying that the Philippines had rejected US proposals that would place the project beyond local jurisdiction (https://t.co/ZmNWJB03eH).

Note, by the way, this delicious irony: the BCDA is the government agency that was created in 1992 specifically to convert former US military bases at Clark and Subic Bay after the Philippines spent decades negotiating their closure. New Clark City - where the Pax Silica's hub would go - is built on the old Clark Air Base.

So the agency whose entire reason for existing is to turn former American colonial territory (i.e. US military bases) into sovereign Philippine land is the one now being asked to hand part of that very same land back under US jurisdiction (and, apparently, declined).

Of course though, blocking this specific jurisdiction grab doesn't change the bigger picture. The Philippines is still a Pax Silica signatory, and Pax Silica itself is structurally neocolonial: you supply the cheap labor and raw materials, align your export controls and regulations with Washington's, cut yourself off from the world's rising technological powerhouse - and in exchange you get assembly jobs and the privilege of getting a pat on the head and being called a "trusted partner."

They dropped the most cartoonishly colonial demand - governing Philippine soil under US law - but the underlying architecture is the same: you serve America's supply chain, on America's terms, and you relinquish your sovereign right to trade with whoever offers the best deal.

[Quincas Borba @Quincanomics]

@republiqueBRA Eterno dia da marmota

[Quincas Borba @Quincanomics]

@ACGeoEcon While in the US, the cryptofools were convinced that a stablecoin standard separates money from (and is not monitored by) the State, when in reality it is much more state-centric than a private banking system elastically creating credit money, since stablecoins dont extend credit

[Financial Times @FT]

Saudi Arabia floats Middle Eastern non-aggression pact with Iran https://t.co/9o3PMxoxJe

[Quincas Borba @Quincanomics]

@onechancefreedm Nice post. People have a tendency to repeat dumb interpretations just because they're appealing

[Hasan alrabay @HasanEssam29636]

One of the most terrifying images in history: a transformation from life to death.

Gaza in 2023 and 2026!

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

"It's fine - we'll just shift issuance to the front end, have Warsh cut rates & flood the world with T-Bill backed stablecoins to finance US deficits..."