Matt Daniels

Aspiring Comprehensivist | Habitual Line-Stepper

[Matt Daniels @R1sky_Biz]

@mansourtarek_ I actually did think you were smart. But it’s clear I was wrong, you’re just like the rest, fed by greed with enough ignorance to see that this choice isn’t great for anyone but you and your investors. ♟️

[Matt Daniels @R1sky_Biz]

Codex is fucking amazing.
5 days ago I switched from Claude to Codex to continue building my personal OS. Now it’s actually up and running with Gmail triage, calendar, priorities, daily briefs + finance signals just to name a few. 1 manager + 5 agents running concurrently. 17,300 lines across 79 code/test files. I’ve never felt more enabled. @OpenAI

[Matt Daniels @R1sky_Biz]

@arthurkatcher Codex has been a game changer after I switched over. 10/10 would recommend.

[Matt Daniels @R1sky_Biz]

@spencerpratt This can't be real. Right..?

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Kimi K3 may be an important inflection point for AI. Potentially negative for Anthropic and OpenAI while being net positive for essentially every other company in the world. I mean that very literally. Although the real “Sputnik moment” would be an open-source frontier model that was also token efficient unlike Kimi K3 which is 50-70% more expensive to run than GPT 5.6 per Artificial Analysis.

Rationale:

A world where there are only 2-3 dominant frontier labs with 90% inference margins is net negative for every other layer while being awesome for those 2-3 labs. Those labs would become monopsonies for power, data centers, semiconductors and hyperscalers and would obviously vertically integrate over time into all those layers while also completely subsuming the application/software layers. 

Anything that lowers margins and increases competition at the model layer is good for every other AI layer: power, semiconductors, hyperscalers, neoclouds and yes even software.

This is why Jensen is so supportive of open-source. An open-source model requires the *exact* same amount of compute to run as a closed frontier model of similar size and architecture. Kimi K3 is roughly the same price as GPT 5.6 Terra on a per token basis, which actually suggests that it is less computationally efficient as I am sure that GPT 5.6 is priced to a higher margin than K3. And given that K3 is a token wastrel, i.e. token inefficient, it is significantly more expensive per task than GPT 5.6 and Grok 4.5, which are much more token efficient. Cost per token and token efficiency (i.e. intelligence density per token) are the drivers of intelligence per unit of cost. The winning AI companies will be those that offer the most intelligence per $ over time.

Lower margin % at the model layer = more margin $ at every part of the infrastructure layer and is a godsend for software. This can happen either through open-source models like K3 at the frontier *or* having a vertically integrated model company like Meta, SpaceX or Google at the frontier. Both outcomes result in a lower margin % at the model layer as vertically integrated model companies don’t really care where the margin $ come from. This is why it was so painful for OpenAI and Anthropic when Google was right there with them from a model competitiveness perspective and why Grok 4.5 and Muse 1.1 were just as important as Kimi K3.

The reason Kimi K3 is only *potentially* negative for Anthropic and OpenAI is 1) the @ericvishria point that the Claude and ChatGPT products and harnesses may be more important than their models today and 2) the hypothesis that they have much more advanced model checkpoints internally that are already being used for RSI. In the latter scenario, reaching RSI even a few months ahead of other labs might be enough to cement a permanent lead.

Time will tell on both points. And likely fairly quickly.

Caveat would be that since Kimi K3 is not token efficient and thereby actually more expensive than ChatGPT 5.6, we may need to see a more token efficient open-source model at the frontier or see Grok 5/Composer 4/Muse 2 at multiple points on the Pareto frontier for this potential risk to Anthropic and OpenAI to play out. And I am sure they will both vertically integrate as quickly as possible while continuing the product/harness strength they have shown over the last 8 months.

[Matt Daniels @R1sky_Biz]

I have never seen a team GIVE UP field position more effectively than the @USMNT . It’s textbook every fucking time a little pressure is applied. #USMNT #JV #poorplanning #wtf

[Matt Daniels @R1sky_Biz]

@gregisenberg I feel seen Hahaha! I go back to some but definitely not all unfortunately.

[Matt Daniels @R1sky_Biz]

@elonmusk @konstructivizm Impossible task without @elonmusk and @SpaceX

[Matt Daniels @R1sky_Biz]

@itsolelehmann Cowork

[Matt Daniels @R1sky_Biz]

@AlfieJCarter CODE

[Matt Daniels @R1sky_Biz]

@flagellan @MarioNawfal @IfindRetards Found another one.

[Matt Daniels @R1sky_Biz]

@gregisenberg Pumped to watch this one! Thanks Greg

[Matt Daniels @R1sky_Biz]

@saylor @DIVIDIND Quantum compute is also a risk.

[Matt Daniels @R1sky_Biz]

@OmarOsman96 @TGTM_Official You’re an idiot

[Matt Daniels @R1sky_Biz]

@AutismCapital This is incredible

[Matt Daniels @R1sky_Biz]

@Shahin_XTechAI Steal

[Matt Daniels @R1sky_Biz]

@CMEGroup This is complete bullshit

[Matt Daniels @R1sky_Biz]

@realdogeusa @elonmusk 12/10

[Matt Daniels @R1sky_Biz]

@WHLeavitt G