RAND Forecasting Initiative

RFI enhances RAND's ability to understand complex global challenges through advanced forecasting capabilities.

[RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting]

INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI)

RFI harnesses crowdsourced forecasting to enhance RAND analyst and decision-makers' toolkits.

Learn more: https://t.co/MG1p7KeYnd

[RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting]

Forecast with us on governance & stability in #Africa and African diaspora countries to inform RAND analysts and U.S. policymakers.

Learn more and contribute to this research by forecasting on our latest questions >>
https://t.co/DscSxRPFqS

#AfricanSecurity #RANDForecasting

[RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting]

Then, see perspectives from our crowd and share your own forecast >> https://t.co/rT7lJZVrWe

[RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting]

Since @RANDCorporation's article was published, INFER's crowd forecast has nearly doubled, now saying there's a 43% chance that #Israel will declare war on #Hezbollah in the next year.

Read RAND's article to learn how they’re using crowd forecasting >> https://t.co/mzdJUB9Aao

[RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting]

Could Russia's rising #inflation rates (as reported @Reuters) impact Putin's leadership?

INFER is forecasting whether #Putin will cease to be the President of #Russia by July 2025.

Tell us what you think >> https://t.co/An0BvVSL5t

[Reuters @Reuters]

Russia's central bank governor Nabiullina on rates, economy and banks https://t.co/tRcoHnOXug

[Adam Alonzi @Adam_Alonzi]

@INFERpub will challenge your brain, teach you about the world, and connect you with other curious people!

This was my favorite question of this month:

On 31 May 2025, will NVIDIA be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

https://t.co/gPA3ZXf1J7

[RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting]

📱From smartphones to military systems, #semiconductors power our digital world.

We're asking: What % of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas in 2024?

Forecast now >> https://t.co/5j83DM6uVy

[RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting]

Pro forecaster @DippySkippy, works in high-value philanthropy investing in London, and shares why participating on INFER is important to him.

See forecasting lessons from him and other top forecasters >> https://t.co/5CS14iP3nS

[RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting]

📊 NEW snapshot reports on #Iran's agenda for #nuclear weapons and #proxies are now available for download.

By 31 May, several crowd forecast signals pointed to Iran's regional influence remaining at status quo or slightly deescalating.

See more >> https://t.co/1QmIqM6Af3

[RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting]

Amid #election legitimacy concerns and alleged human rights violations in #Venezuela, we are seeking forecasts on this critical question >>

https://t.co/Jjwp98Vmbs

[RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting]

Notable update from our mid-month forecast snapshot report:

The INFER crowd is currently forecasting a 53% chance (+23% in just the last 3 weeks) that #Russia will attack #Kharkiv, #Ukraine before Jan 2025.

Read more from our latest snapshot report >> https://t.co/1QmIqM62pv

[RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting]

We just launched a new strategic topic to understand the future of Open Radio Access Network.

An #OpenRAN ecosystem would allow companies like Verizon and AT&T to use vendor-neutral hardware and software, avoiding reliance on one provider.

Read more >> https://t.co/8qrCHB7A4Z

[RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting]

We asked INFER Pro Forecaster and geopolitical consultant ScottEastman:

What have you learned from working with top level forecasters both in your field and in the INFER Pro program?

Hear from several top forecasters >> https://t.co/5CS14iP3nS

#crowdforecasting

[RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting]

Our newly released #Russia-#Ukraine report spotlighted a notable forecast shift – our crowd now says there's a 21% chance that #Russia will invade #Moldova before April 2027.

Read more from our forecasters on this issue and others >> https://t.co/1QmIqM62pv

[RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting]

📊NEW snapshot reports on the #RussiaUkraineWar and #Iran's #nuclear and regional agenda are now available for download.

These include a spotlight on the signal with a notable forecast shift over the past month.

See our latest forecast reports >> https://t.co/1QmIqM62pv

[RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting]

📈 In the past two weeks, INFER's forecast for #Israel declaring war on #Hezbollah in the next year has jumped to a 24% chance.

What do you think? >> https://t.co/aj5nxyGXTT

[RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting]

INFER currently predicts a 14% chance that #Israel will declare war on #Hezbollah in the next year.

Our forecasters are citing...
🔹Israel's resource constraints
🔹Hezbollah's current focus on #Syria
🔹International pressure

Forecast now >> https://t.co/aj5nxyGXTT

[RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting]

Critical #UkraineRussiaWar forecast questions just launched. Here's one:

Will the U.S. #Congress pass a military aid package supporting #Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024?

Forecast now >> https://t.co/T1wZX0REHj

[RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting]

Our March snapshot reports highlight crowd forecast trends related to #Iran's #nuclear progress and influence on proxies in the region.

Read our latest release >> https://t.co/1QmIqM62pv

[RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting]

Learn more about motivation and techniques from several of our top forecasters from last season >> https://t.co/5CS14iP3nS

[RAND Forecasting Initiative @RANDforecasting]

"I want to impact policy decisions in areas that I think are critical to hopefully avoiding #war, ending wars more quickly, or improving people's lives."

- Pro Forecaster @ ScottEastman, geopolitical consultant from the US now based in Romania, on why he forecasts with INFER