Gil

Politics, EA, Constitutional Design

Alt: @BFishRedFish. Also follow me over there:

[Gil @RFishBlueFish]

My constitutional design series is complete! If you've ever wondered anything like "which is the best voting system, taking into account practical concerns?", read it! 20 posts, most 10-15 min read

Here is a thread with all the posts here, starting from highlights

[Gil @RFishBlueFish]

The South Carolina senate race feels like a window back in time. The candidate issue stances, the fundraising, the media coverage, it all reads as a race straight out of 2018. Bizarre.

[Gil @RFishBlueFish]

@monkey_reg @SemioticRivalry (Econ bc undrafted Haredim also receive benefits)

[Gil @RFishBlueFish]

@monkey_reg @SemioticRivalry Basically there are two main axes of Israeli politics (security/palestine and religion). Bibi’s govt is unpopular on both axes but especially the latter. Half what these opposition ppl talk about is the haredi military exceptions bc it blends both axes nicely (also kinda Econ)

[Gil @RFishBlueFish]

@LeroyTheElk @ArmandDoma The annoying thing is most markets in any given election cycle are pretty heavily correlated.

[Gil @RFishBlueFish]

@SemioticRivalry I think markets are also considering Bennett or whoever else baling him out again? Don’t think that’s particularly likely but they seem to really hate the Arabs

[Gil @RFishBlueFish]

@lennybronner Yeah the entire "no parties" thing fell apart immediately and extremely predictably. And mind you this is the thing our whole constitution is based around.

[Gil @RFishBlueFish]

@flaminhottweets @acalce1000 @MakeUSAVAT It's not just immigration though. He would make these comments about how ACA was a DISASTER and how Hillary was the worst candidate in the history of the world and lots of things like that and it just wasn't perceived as the positions of an extremist

[Gil @RFishBlueFish]

@flaminhottweets @acalce1000 @MakeUSAVAT Side note but I read poli sci research suggesting that the reason anti-immigration parties didn't do well pre-2015 is because they weren't perceived as "legitimate" and I'm like ok but trump didn't act in any way legitimizing himself. A bunch of BS IMO.

[Gil @RFishBlueFish]

@flaminhottweets @acalce1000 @MakeUSAVAT Yeah I continue to believe that Trump bends all the rules of political gravity. Like if anyone on the left acted any way remotely resembling him they would lose badly.

[Gil @RFishBlueFish]

@flaminhottweets @acalce1000 @MakeUSAVAT I don't see how you could think these things and not be an extremist. (And indeed Trump is an extremist). But somehow the public didn't catch on.

[Gil @RFishBlueFish]

@flaminhottweets @acalce1000 @MakeUSAVAT It's not just immigration though. He would make these comments about how ACA was a DISASTER and how Hillary was the worst candidate in the history of the world and lots of things like that and it just wasn't perceived as the positions of an extremist

[Gil @RFishBlueFish]

@flaminhottweets @acalce1000 @MakeUSAVAT I also found it quite annoying that Trump was rewarded for the few moderate things he'd say but then be an extremist most of the time only for it to go unnoticed.

[Gil @RFishBlueFish]

@flaminhottweets @acalce1000 @MakeUSAVAT One of the most frustrating things for me personally was to sit through term 1 with Trump saying insanely horrible shit all the time and everyone saying “don’t worry it won’t happen”, and they were in fact right about term 1, but then it all happened (and worse) term 2

[Gil @RFishBlueFish]

@GjMcGowan @AndyMasley (Usually I share the premises at least a bit)

[Gil @RFishBlueFish]

@GjMcGowan @AndyMasley I will say I often will read comedy I disagree with and still find it funny because I can see the premises they’re operating under even if I don’t share them, though not sure how common that is

[Gil @RFishBlueFish]

@GjMcGowan @AndyMasley I will say that watching a ton of political comedy made me well equipped to realize what types of rhetorical devices people turn to and how you can frame things to show the other side as funny.

But yes it’s horrible epistemics

[Sam Stein @samstein]

And the efforts by Trump to stop certification of election results they don't like has begun. DOJ now seeking to block Alaska Senate results if Peltola wins and the other Dan Sullivan gets votes

https://t.co/58VnW83M44

[Gil @RFishBlueFish]

This is the message you put out when you want people to bet on their preferred candidate

[Kalshi @Kalshi]

For too long, polls, pundits, and experts have told us what America thinks.

Prediction markets change that, putting power back in the hands of the people.

No gatekeepers. No handpicked voices.

Just millions of people putting conviction behind their beliefs.

[Gil @RFishBlueFish]

@AlexGodofsky Oh I should also say, there’s a third option (c) of doing nothing because you‘ve been reading people like Nate going on about how systemic error is random and we shouldn’t expect it to persist

[Gil @RFishBlueFish]

To the people saying “its just a coin toss”: you do realize this isn’t just random sampling error, right? Like it’s way too broad an effect and too high sample sizes to be that. So everyone acknowledges there’s systemic error, the only question is if we’d expect it to go away

[Gil @RFishBlueFish]

@AlexGodofsky I think it’s a lot easier to stomach mentally adjusting a D+10 Ohio sample to D+5 rather than EVEN