Chamberlain's Ghost

History, geopolitics, social issues. Peels apples with scalpels. Quiet civil conversations. Mostly somewhere in the moderate middle. Aspie. Mute button user.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

Some of you may wonder about the name of this profile - Chamberlain's Ghost. Just briefly, when this war started in early 2022, I strongly expressed the view that Ukraine should seek a settlement with Russia as soon as possible. This was long before we all learned about the abortive Istanbul negotiations. For this I was pilloried by friend, family, acquaintance and stranger alike. I was labelled 'Putin's shill', 'Munich appeaser', 'Neville Chamberlain' and and many other things besides. But I was right then and I am still right now. The only solution to this war for Ukraine was and still is a negotiated peace. The only difference now from then is that now the terms will be worse, many people have died and a great deal of destruction has been done. This was, in the greater sense of matters, an avoidable war. People did not need to die and a country did not need to be wrecked. But in substance ideology preceded pragmatism.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

Well, I suppose it's no worse really than Annalena Baerbock having been president.

[Elliot Kaufman @ElliotKaufman6]

New: Sources from three countries confirm that the Trump Administration has advocated Viktor Orbán for UN Secretary-General.

The US has encouraged Orbán to enter the race, even bringing him the initial idea of a joint U.S.-Russia-China candidacy.

WSJ:
https://t.co/y98HWICnwd

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

Very significant. Mecca Pact parties discussing regional security with Iran. Working around the US by the look of it.

[Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران @ariel_oseran]

Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistan’s Army chief Asim Munir, and Turkey’s Intelligence head Ibrahim Kalin, will hold a joint meeting with Iranian officials in Tehran today. According to Iran’s National Security Council, the sides will discuss joint regional security.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

Major tension between the IDF Chief of Staff and Netanyahu around the Iran issue. 🔽 Read the comments too.

[David Makovsky @DavidMakovsky]

Israel's Channel 12 Reporting (English translation of their report:)

Breaking news in this edition

An unprecedented confrontation between the Chief of Staff and the Prime Minister has reached a critical—or perhaps disastrous—turning point over the last 24 hours.

At the heart of the matter: the Iranian issue.

There is concern on the part of [Chief of Staff] Zamir that Netanyahu and the political leadership might trigger a scenario of miscalculation vis-à-vis Iran, just ahead of the elections.

A defense official states that the action in question could lead to a rapid confrontation with Iran at a highly sensitive and dramatic moment, potentially resulting in a miscalculation.

Sources familiar with the details indicate that the military leadership fears an attempt to exploit the Iranian issue for political gain—a claim that political figures deny, labeling it an outright lie.

Regardless, two sources tell me that the situation has escalated to the point where, during a visit to the Palmachim Airbase today, the atmosphere in the discussion was extremely tense.

In recent days, Zamir received a directive from the political leadership but requested an in-depth discussion before taking any action.

He also demanded formal, signed legal authorization from the political echelon for the proposed move.

A senior defense official remarked: "History will not forget the role Zamir has played here over the last few days."

In short: an exceptionally intense confrontation between Zamir and Netanyahu regarding the Iranian issue, occurring just before the elections.

It should be noted: all details in this report have been approved by the Military Censor.
Yaron Avraham

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

🔽

[Yanir Cozin - יניר קוזין @yanircozin]

הסיפור פשוט,
או שנתניהו משקר ביודעין עכשיו לציבור, זורע בהלה בחסות קמפיין הבחירות ��לעזאזל כל השא.
או
שהוא שיקר לציבור פעמיים לאחר שני מבצעים צבאיים שערכה ישראל נגד איראן.

למה?

כי אי אפשר לפרסם היום 48 שעות לפני הבחירות תמונה עם פצצת אטום על ת"א ולכתוב שאנחנו בסכנה קיומית
ולפני שנה וחצי (!) לטעון בקולו שהסרנו את הסכנה הקיומית.

כלומר אפשר, אבל צריך להיות בטוח שכווווווולם ממש ממש מטומטמים.

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

“In 2025, before the large-scale winter attacks, local generation played a key role in supplying electricity to the city. According to sources at one of the energy companies who spoke to Ekonomichna Pravda, it may have accounted for as much as 1.3 GW. This came primarily from Kyiv CHP-5, CHP-6 and Darnytsia CHP (CHP-4) – combined heat and power plants (CHP plants) that produce both electricity and heat for the city's district heating network.

These plants are now no longer able to generate electricity…

In a relatively favourable scenario, energy workers will repair damaged equipment and new strikes will not cause critical losses. In that case, restrictions may be moderate, although avoiding power cuts altogether will be difficult. For consumers, this would mean 8-10 hours without electricity per day.

If the attacks continue and some equipment remains damaged, Kyiv could face longer power cuts during moderately cold spells. Under this scenario, outages could last 12-16 hours per day.

The worst-case scenario involves regular large-scale strikes on key substations and other elements of the power system amid severe frosts. In that case, restrictions could last up to 20 hours per day. However, sources in the energy sector interviewed by Ekonomichna Pravda do not believe in a scenario in which the Russians would manage to destroy everything and ‘plunge Kyiv into darkness’.”
https://t.co/ElkU3MBKTd

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

@puppy_kirk https://t.co/AVoh3ZsSfw

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

@YH62284741 My screenshots from some time ago.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

🔽 One thing here. Musk says offensive drone use is prohibited. But when I read this article, I am left with the question of exactly where the line is drawn between offensive and defensive use. Is midrange drone battlefield use offensive or defensive? It seems to be a matter of colouring.

Elon Musk Says Ukraine Violated Starlink’s Rules https://t.co/AoqBT9Hrsq

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

🔽 Everything we are seeing points in this direction.

[Alex Santic @TopofMurrayHill]

Interesting take from Ukrainian Telegram channel "Woman with a Braid" on recent diplomatic developments:

According to rumors circulating behind the scenes, the primary objective of Witkoff’s talks with Putin is not, in fact, the prospect of ending the war in Ukraine. Instead, the U.S. and Russia have begun discussing what kind of relationship they might build with one another, independent of any settlement regarding Ukraine.

The economic interests of Washington and Moscow have not vanished because of the war. Both sides are finding opportunities for cooperation even now, and the Ukrainian issue is no longer the sole condition for their dialogue.

Far more significant than the compliments exchanged during the meeting is the mention of peace proposals that could be reviewed at a later stage. Proposals put forward by Kyiv and various European capitals play no role in shaping the substance of the current negotiations; they are, at best, peripheral—and this is not simply due to skepticism on the part of the Russian Federation.

Acting in their own interests, the U.S. has concluded that there is little point in engaging through Zelensky—who remains firmly entrenched in power—and that Trump is far more interested in trade and economic cooperation. The U.S. has signaled its intent to develop relations with Russia; the diesel deal is merely the beginning. Trump is attempting to convey a similar message to Zelensky: agree to peace, and Ukraine will see investment. Zelensky, however, is unwilling to end the war, as his own grip on power depends upon its continuation.

The visit of a Chinese representative to Moscow, occurring immediately after the meeting with Witkoff, adds another dimension. It is likely that a potential summit between the leaders of the U.S., Russia, and China was discussed. The very prospect of addressing Ukraine alongside issues like Iran and other international concerns shifts the scale of the diplomatic agenda.

For Kyiv, this presents a fundamental problem: the principle of "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine" is little more than a pleasant-sounding phrase. High-level politics is not built on promises. While Zelensky seeks a central seat at the negotiating table, Washington and Moscow are gradually expanding the table itself—incorporating issues of trade, security, and mutual interests. In this context, a deal involving diesel fuel could prove more significant than yet another diplomatic statement: it would demonstrate that the U.S.-Russia relationship is capable of evolving even before the war has ended.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

@HelloMrBond @KofmanMichael Okay. Musk has been explicit that the Starlink restrictions were bypassed. One theory is the GPS hacking one. Provide other realistic theories as to how this was done.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

@i_sundog Well, is it an electric lamp?

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

@jtfoo68 I suspect that is the line of reasoning here. Musk's comments though make me think that Ukraine had maybe started to (try to) use it extra-territorially into Russia itself - not sure. I am not clear on exactly what the SpaceX thinking is.

[נדב איל Nadav Eyal @Nadav_Eyal]

1/ Benjamin Netanyahu got the last set of polls last night. They argue Likud and his block are eroding fast.
Then, came his remarks on Israel's economy. These are among the most extraordinary he has made in a long political career. Whatever their intent, they carry real weight for the Israeli economy – before Tuesday's election, and regardless of who forms the next government.

In an interview with journalist Roy Katz, aired Friday, the prime minister said American military aid to Israel is coming to an end. "It's over. It's only a question of time," he said. Israelis should get used to no longer receiving tens of billions of dollars in U.S. defense assistance, he added, "because America has changed."

That alone is remarkable. There is a growing recognition in Israel that U.S. military aid in its current form will have to change, and might end, as bipartisan support for Israel erodes in Washington. Netanyahu himself has spoken before about wanting to wean Israel off the aid.

But there is a distance between that recognition and a sitting prime minister effectively announcing the end of one of the pillars of the U.S.–Israel strategic relationship. The current Memorandum of Understanding – $38 billion over ten years – runs through September 2028. It is embedded in a web of interests that includes the American defense industry, and Israel's diplomats in Washington work hard to sustain it. Israel's friends in Congress, operating in an increasingly difficult political environment, are still fighting to preserve the special relationship. When the prime minister himself says "it's over," that is a hard message for Israel's defense establishment, and for those in Washington still trying to help.

And that was only the opening.

"There could be sanctions, including banking sanctions," Netanyahu said. Israel, he explained, must prepare an economy capable of bypassing them.

This is a different order of magnitude entirely.

Some background is needed. In the world of international sanctions, comprehensive banking sanctions against a country are among the most powerful tools available to major powers. They are not import restrictions, consumer boycotts, or even arms embargoes. Broad financial sanctions go after an economy's circulatory system.

Israel's banks depend on the global financial system: correspondent banks, clearing, credit lines, the ability to move money across borders. Without access to banks abroad, the Israeli economy stops functioning. And such sanctions don't hit only the banks. They hit everyone who banks with them – companies, exporters, importers, investors, employers. When foreign banks become nervous about a country's financial institutions, they tend to cut ties well beyond what the law strictly requires.

In other words, a sweeping financial sanctions regime would push Israel toward the category of Iran or Russia.

It would be worse. Iran and Russia sit on vast oil and gas reserves. Even under sanctions, they keep selling – mainly in Asia and parts of the Global South. Israel's economy is not built on commodities. Its strength comes from integration into the global economy: human capital, technology, research, advanced services.

According to the Israel Innovation Authority, Israeli high-tech exported roughly $85 billion in goods and services in 2025 – 58 percent of all Israeli exports – and accounted for about half of the economy's growth. It is the engine of the economy, and it depends on foreign markets, foreign capital, and the free movement of money.

Netanyahu did not say who might impose banking sanctions. A prime minister raising this possibility, in the same breath as forecasting the end of U.S. aid, should prompt immediate questions. Is he referring to European sanctions? American ones? above all: how did Israel get to the point where this is being discussed at all?

There was more - and much worse.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

@YH62284741 My screenshots from some time ago.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

@YH62284741 I've never been able to find evidence of any such agreement - only the standard terms of service and acceptable use policy - which clearly imposes various restrictions (I read it and screenshotted some parts).

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

@policytensor The whole story in one quadrant.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

🔽 Overview of the current situation.

A New Level of Threat and Fear Risks Pushing the U.S. and Iran Back to Full War https://t.co/PIXGm7O4U7

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

Pretty far reaching. 🔽

"The Russian president said Witkoff also stressed that discussions had to extend to "the architecture of European security as a whole. And I agree with that too. Well, let's see how things develop in the coming days." "

https://t.co/m0pWYGqH2r

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

And fair enough.

But it does fit quite well with several other things:

We know that the Russians were at one time doing pretty much this or something quite similar with Starlink until it was stopped by technical means.

We know that in a NYTimes article the Ukrainians have said that the system was formally limited to 160km/h although they were exceeding it.

The foregoing fits with the Starlink published terms of service.

We know that if the 160km/h speed limit is exceeded, the Starlink system responds with a warning and then drops the link. This clearly implies that something has to be done by way of a workaround to prevent it from detecting the true speed and dropping the link.

We know that the Ukrainians are highly, highly innovative.

The sudden changes in Ukraine's ability to go beyond 160km/h implies a technical change rollout of some kind.

We know that after the changes, 160km/h was the limit.

None of the above precludes the possibility of a policy decision to enforce the 160km/h limit. But the bits fit together too cleanly for the theory to simply be dismissed out of hand. It justifies in depth investigation.