Chamberlain's Ghost

History, geopolitics, social issues. Peels apples with scalpels. Quiet civil conversations. Mostly somewhere in the moderate middle. Mute button enthusiast.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

Some of you may wonder about the name of this profile - Chamberlain's Ghost. Just briefly, when this war started in early 2022, I strongly expressed the view that Ukraine should seek a settlement with Russia as soon as possible. This was long before we all learned about the abortive Istanbul negotiations. For this I was pilloried by friend, family, acquaintance and stranger alike. I was labelled 'Putin's shill', 'Munich appeaser', 'Neville Chamberlain' and and many other things besides. But I was right then and I am still right now. The only solution to this war for Ukraine was and still is a negotiated peace. The only difference now from then is that now the terms will be worse, many people have died and a great deal of destruction has been done. This was, in the greater sense of matters, an avoidable war. People did not need to die and a country did not need to be wrecked. But in substance ideology preceded pragmatism.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

@SKG01245 Yes, the entire thing is shot through with unconcern.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

The Henry Nowak thing. If you watch the video, before Nowak complains of being unable to breathe and having been stabbed, the one police officer notes that "he has a mouthful of blood". Now when a person with a mouthful of blood starts complaining that they can't breathe and that they have been stabbed, alarm bells should be starting to go off. Then, a few moments later a policewoman requests an ambulance saying "His pupils aren't even reacting". By that point anyone with any bit of sense would surely have realised that there was a very serious problem. Now these same officers, apparently having been bereft of anything approaching basic common sense, are blaming their DEI training.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

@goodboyplongy I read that they were 2 to 3 minutes away from the nearest hospital. Instead of cuffing him they could simply have put him in the patrol car on an extreme urgency basis and driven him to the hospital. The odds are good he'd still be alive.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

Smotrich: "[Let's] kill the idea of a Palestinian state." Well, the Israeli state - at least in the form of Netanyahu - is apparently opposed to a two state solution, as is Smotrich. But you can take poison on the fact that they're also not exactly inviting the Palestinians to join them in a unitary state. The implication is obvious to anyone who isn't a complete and utter idiot.

[Clash Report @clashreport]

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich:

I say to the people of Israel: come live in the West Bank. There are many reasons to live in the West Bank.

I hope that this incentive will help us bring one million settlers and kill the idea of a Palestinian state.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

😂

[Treasurer Michael Frerichs @ILTreasurer]

His bank may have hung up on Pope Leo last month, but no phone was needed today at the Vatican. Treasurer Frerichs presented Pope Leo with an I-Cash claim for $8.65, proceeds from an abandoned PayPal account the Pope left in Illinois.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

NATO players: Ukraine has achieved drone superiority over Russia. It's drone wall has the effect that Russia is losing 35,000 irreplaceable men every month. Russia's economy is about to collapse. It will forced to seek a ceasefire.
Also NATO players ⬇️: Russia will soon attack and has great superiority in numbers of drones.
🤷🏻‍♂️

[Giorgi Revishvili @revishvilig]

General Kaspars Pudāns, Commander of Latvia’s Armed Forces:

Moscow has gained technological advantage that it may use to attack NATO by end 2028. 1/9

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

@ggreenwald Okay, so Steven Spielberg, Louis B Mayer and Harvey Weinstein are all fictitious?

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

You're forgetting how much difficulty Trump had getting Iran to agree to this ceasefire in the first place. Getting back onto the escalation ladder will result in far more damage and injuries inflicted by Iran. And it's already shown that the US cannot bomb Iran into submission. So what do you expect Trump to do? Get into another round of violence for no effective strategic outcome?

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

Quiet a compelling argument. ⬇️ And as noted, the police could simply have rapidly taken him to the nearest hospital. It appears then both police and police inaction may be argued to have contributed to Nowak's death.

[Adam Gwiazda @delestoile]

🟥 Czy Henry Nowak mógł przeżyć?
Dr Krzysztof Magier @DrMagier , lekarz pediatra i były konsul honorowy RP w Cowes, przeanalizował nagrania z policyjnej kamery nasobnej pokazujące śmierć Henry'ego Nowaka.
Dr Magier jest lekarzem prowadzącym oddział intensywnej terapii dziecięcej, z doświadczeniem w szkoleniach z medycyny pola walki oraz po specjalistycznym kursie leczenia ciężkich urazów (w tym ran postrzałowych i kłutych).
Nie zgadza się z opinią patologa i sędziego, że Henry Nowak nie miał żadnych szans na przeżycie i ze skucie go w kajdanki nic w zasadzie nie zmieniło. Wręcz przeciwnie – istnieje duże prawdopodobieństwo, że to interwencja policji przyczyniła się do jego śmierci.
Przeanalizował on raport z sekcji, który wskazuje na uszkodzenie żyły podobojczykowej jako główne źródło krwawienia i tłumaczy, gdzie leży problem.
U zdrowej osoby krwawienie żylne odbywa się pod niskim ciśnieniem i często samoogranicza się dzięki powstającemu naturalnie skrzepowi, a samo zbliżenie krawędzi rany i ucisk otaczających tkanek domyka żyłę na tyle, że spowalnia albo nawet zatrzymuje krwawienie.
Z nagrania z policyjnej kamery nasobnej wynika, że gdy policja przybyła na miejsce (prawdopodobnie 5-10 minut po zranieniu), Henry był na tyle przytomny, że mówił dość głośno. Nie był zatem jeszcze w stanie terminalnym. Po wykręceniu rąk do tyłu i skuciu za plecami najprawdopodobniej doszło do rozciągnięcia żyły, rozerwania skrzepu i gwałtownego nasilenia krwawienia. W ciągu zaledwie ok. trzech minut stracił przytomność i zmarł.
Osoby z podejrzeniem urazów wewnętrznych nigdy nie powinny być gwałtownie przemieszczane ani szarpane – takie działanie może zniszczyć naturalny skrzep i doprowadzić do masywnego krwotoku wewnętrznego.
Zamiast natychmiastowego wezwania zespołu ratownictwa medycznego i przekazania pacjenta w ręce ratowników, policja go skuła. Gdyby na miejscu jako pierwsi pojawili się paramedycy, szanse Henry’ego na przeżycie byłyby znacznie większe. "50%" - pisze dr Magier.
Ratownicy mogliby szybko założyć kroplówk��, podać płyny zwiększające objętość krwi krążącej oraz kwas traneksamowy stabilizujący skrzep, a w razie potrzeby wykonać dekompresję igłową (wkłucie grubej i długiej igły w płuco), bo problemem nie był tyle brak funkcji płuca, ale ucisk zalanego krwią płuca na serce i śródpiersie, który blokuje krążenie.
Co gorsza, incydent miał miejsce zaledwie kilka minut jazdy samochodem (2–3 minuty karetką na sygnale) od Southampton University Hospital – regionalnego Major Trauma Centre dysponującego pełnym zapleczem specjalistów, procedur i sprzętu. "Jestem przekonany, że gdyby Henry dotarł tam żywy, lekarze nie pozwoliliby mu umrzeć" - pisze dr Magier.
Podsumowując: agresywna interwencja policji, zamiast ratować życie, doprowadziła do śmierci przez nieodpowiednie postępowanie z ciężko ranionym człowiekiem, mimo że najwyższej klasy opieka była w zasięgu kilku minut. "Obawiam się, że Sędzia i patolog byli zbyt łaskawi dla policji" - pisze dr Magier.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

@JTAlexander I know a whole lot of women who can comfortably handle 12 guage with slugs.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

Well, Trump has had the good sense not to step onto the escalation ladder with Iran. Possibly a case of 'been there, done that, didn't work'. But the House has handed him a poisoned chalice in his negotiations with Iran. Possibly Senate will too. The resolution is purely advisory. But as some have noted, the intention may be to set him up for impeachment post-midterm. This time though it wouldn't be for 'personal shenanigans' but for flouting the Constitution, and thus of an altogether different character.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

@quicklime696969 Interesting idea.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

⬇️ I wonder if they have really thought this through? They are trying to demoralise the Russians but there's a real risk that they end up igniting Russian nationalism instead. There are already many Russians who view Putin as far too liberal and as not prosecuting the war with sufficient determination.

[Clash Report @clashreport]

Ukraine's Budanov:

The Russians were not mentally prepared for the possibility of drones—and sometimes missiles—arriving on a massive scale.

For them, this is a shock. Their society is neither prepared nor willing to accept it.

They believed this could never happen because they are very strong, very powerful, and everyone is afraid of them. It turns out that's not the case.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

@MikeV_is_free @AGHamilton29 And if you look back, Trump initially had some difficulties getting Iran to agree to a ceasefire. They were quite reluctant at first.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

@075Henry This now a video of an interview with Netanyahu in which he also says it happened. I can't tell you more than what I read - I'm not omniscient. And if I am to disbelieve every single iota of what I read, then it becomes totally nihilistic and everything falls apart.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

⬇️ Looks like the Axios report was accurate then.

[Annmarie Hordern @annmarie]

NY Post: President Trump confirmed that he called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “f–king crazy” during a Monday phone call, but insisted they have “worked very well together.”

“I was a little bit perturbed at his constantly fighting with Lebanon."

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

It's accurate. I was thinking of this last night. The US is still - psychologically and geopolitically - operating within a framework derived from the Cold War, at least to a large degree.

But the world has changed so fundamentally in so many ways that the framework they use is just totally inappropriate. For one thing it simply doesn't allow for the sheer complexity of the how the environment now operates. For another it still has an excessive underlying assumption of US economic and military primacy. These are only a few factors.

But most importantly I think the real issue is that it's still very much a post WW2 and Soviet collapse 'I win, you lose' way of thinking about things. That though really belongs to a past era. Despite all the current issues humanity is more connected and cooperative than at any other time in history - and that's only going to accelerate as we move forward. You can see this in a whole range of new and emerging dynamics. The US leadership just isn't reading the global room anymore. The US has to choose between being part of the story or withholding itself, at least to some degree. There's some irony, because as China comes increasingly out of isolation into deeper engagement with the world, the US is doing the opposite and to a certain extent disengaging. It's almost a form of self sabotage. Let me try and explain a complex set of dynamics simply: Humanity is in the process of increasingly shifting from an "us and you" dynamic to a "we" dynamic. It's been the case at least since the founding of the UN but it's now really starting to take form. China seems to get it, the US not so much.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

@Tracking_Power Well, the Axios could be inaccurate. Or it could be accurate but Netanyahu is trying to blunt the humiliation of it. Both are possible.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

@GiuseppeMe13526 @ArmchairW Yes, that's likely correct.

I have repeatedly pointed out that China is working hard to reduce its dependency on oil and energy imports. Renewables, energy storage (batteries) and nuclear fusion are all part of a bigger stategic plan.

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

Rosemary repeats an important point that is often overlooked:

"the United States faces a worse situation than peer countries because the US economy is highly oil intensive — it consumes significantly more oil to produce each unit of GDP than Russia, China and the EU. There are two reasons why. First, transportation in the US has always relied more heavily on cars than in other countries, and second, the US has been slow to transition away from oil-burning cars to electric vehicles (EVs). "

Unexpectedly, Goldman Sachs estimates that Chinese oil consumption has dropped by 20% year-on-year in April- which they attribute to a major shift to public transport and EV use. (via @JavierBlas )

[Rosemary Kelanic @RKelanic]

Check out my thoughts on why the Strait of Hormuz standoff hurts the U.S. economy *worse* than it hurts the EU or China.
@defpriorities
What Does the Iran War Mean for the Global Economy? https://t.co/g1PlY0GhmN

[Chamberlain's Ghost @RSA_Observer]

@GasBuddyGuy Perhaps, but right now what real alternatives are there?