When you see headlines, tweets, etc. in the coming hours regarding mortgage rates moving up to 7.37% today, that will be because I'm about to update our rate index to 7.37%.
Yes, Freddie Mac released their number today as well, and it's 7.03%, but may as well be gif of Steven Tyler belting out "dream on!"
Freddie's weekly survey is a Wednesday through Wednesday 5-day average of rates that's reported on Thursday. It also doesn't account for the prevalence of upfront points/buydowns (which are increasingly prevalent in this market).
Our rate index accounts for points and is immune from some of the pitfalls that plague other rate metrics.
(If you're typing an angry reply about rates being lower than I say, read this paragraph twice): This DOES NOT mean you couldn't see a rate quote in the high 6% range today. Many lenders will find ways to quote something under 7% today, but in those cases, it will involve more upfront cost than the apples-to-apples vanilla rate quote for a top-tier 30yr fixed scenario over the years.
What is that scenario? It's basically ideal: 25% down, 780+ FICO, owner occupied, purchase, single-family residence. Anything else would be higher. You can read as much as we're willing to share about our methodology here: https://t.co/OWigL8L6mI
You can see a chart of how our daily index compares to Freddie and MBA over the years here:
https://t.co/pcjWEhdxxg (note: depending on when you click this, today's entry may not be reflected yet as I'm writing this tweet before updating the index).
No one does the work we do to nail this math every single day and no one has done anything remotely comparable for remotely as long. Those who know me know I rarely toot my own horn, and that's not even the goal here as I would be sharing this info whether I was the guy in charge or just a mortgage pro who knows what's up (incidentally, if you're one of those mortgage pros, jump in the comments and hit me up if you managed to read this far).
I'm sharing this because we're about to see the mortgage rate conversation explode even more than it has in recent days, and before everyone starts arguing about what rates really are or quoting my work without attribution, I figured I'd give myself a quick shout out to get ahead of it and to make sure everyone knows to point an laugh if anyone tries to tell you "rates are almost up to 7%" because the last day that was true was September 9th.
Best you prepare now. I have been following Armstrong for over a decade and he has been accurate for 40 years or more. His track records speaks for itself.
My own data is showing the same. It's not hard to foresee given what's happening now in the USA.
Ben Thompson argues Meta's ad business is good for society and is frustrated Mark Zuckerberg doesn't defend it
"I think a big problem Meta has is they don't tell this story. It's weird, but Mark Zuckerberg has the same problem Sam Altman does. He doesn't love ads."
"They have the best ad business in the world. They have an ad business that I think is a societal positive."
"Like you and I have set up these little content businesses that make great money, but content is kind of, you get a ride on social media, right? I grew up on Twitter, people sharing my links. It was amazing."
"If you're selling some product, the beauty of the internet is there is a niche out there that wants that product. The question is how do you find the niche?"
"Facebook advertising. That's what it does. It helps products find the people who didn't even know they wanted that product, but when they get it, they're so happy they got it."
"And that is a huge societal positive."
"You have new business from a new entrepreneur making a new product. You have customers who are happy they got something that they didn't know they would get otherwise."
"Those customers, by the way, got lots of free entertainment, and they didn't have to pay for it along the way."
"And Meta made a bunch of money for themselves and their shareholders, which is basically everyone in the world."
"This is why advertising is great. And Meta's advertising in particular is awesome. And I get frustrated that Meta doesn't talk about that."
"Mark Zuckerberg has never really talked about the societal benefits of advertising except in passing."
Gary Vaynerchuk says the best thing to do right now is make fake AI influencers to promote your brand
The proper name of this method is called "Scaling an AI Influencer Army."
ai has disrupted the space like crazy. Because of ai the bar has become so much lower,
since you don’t need to be an 18+ USA adult with 1k+ followers to be an affiliate..
with ai there are regular ladies in Spain making 15k+ monthly profit building ai influencers on Instagram 🤯
Sending the traffic to American Amazon listings and collecting 300% commission for an 8 figure supplement brand based in San Diego
No sending samples
No upfront retainers for creators
No phone farm (this method is 100% compliant and legal in my state of Texas)
no delays (no shipping samples, content can go live same day)
Full breakdown is in the article below:
ranking every type of ecom ad creative format:
F TIER:
> AI UGC
> street interviews
> creator clearly reading script
C TIER:
> lifestyle b-roll with a voiceover
> meme ads
>tiktoks re-purposed
B TIER:
> founder ads
> testimonial compilations
> listicle statics
A TIER:
> before & after statics
> podcast-style ads
> green screen reactions over a proven winner
S TIER:
> yappers
> AI animation
SONG ADS MASTERCLASS:
> Choose a controversial narrative (example: caught husband cheating)
> Tailor song genre to demographic (blacks = rap/trap, whites = pop/country)
> Make sure to make the song conversational
> Always keep opening loops throughout the script
> Never introduce product in the opening sections
BREAKING: Trump has abruptly cut short his Camp David weekend and will return to the White House tonight instead of tomorrow, citing the potential for significant escalation in the region, per the White House press pool.
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 All U.S. embassies in the Middle East have issued security alerts for their citizens, including Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, Iraq, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman
President Trump is urgently departing from Camp David to the White House, arriving tonight instead of tomorrow.
Everything Seinfeld says is 100% true. it reveals that the concept of risk we were sold was a lie (to reject the traditional lameness of family for self-discovery thru indulgence). Turns out the thing that billions have done, is actually the only true risk that matters. wished I'd learned that sooner, but glad I learned it at all.
Just launched a new product a few nights ago and been happy with the results.
I am testing a streamlined version of the current desire testing strategy and campaign setup as follows.
CBO Campaign
1x Ad Set per CONCEPT
1 Ad per DESIRE
(you can also flip this, and do 1 ad set per desire, then 1 ad per concept, doesn't matter, as long as if you're testing desires, it's being tested across the same concepts, this eliminates the concept as a variable)
I've gotten rid of the LF8 roots entirely.
They are still being leveraged in the copy, but I am not writing ads for specific LF8 roots. Instead, I am focusing on the distinction between copy being the desires themselves and showing what happens after people get results. Different desires lead to different "transformations" in the copy, but 90%+ of it remains largely the same.
The thought process behind getting rid of LF8 roots is just eliminating variables and simplifying the machine. This keeps the focus on testing net new concepts for desires. This also allows AI to take over the entire workflow.
With the LF8 roots gone, it has streamlined the entire process dramatically. Launching this product took about 2 hours tops, from website / pdp to research, and finally writing the ads.
Once the research docs are done, all it took was 15-20 minutes of ad research for a winning MSL in my market, writing it for my brand across 3 different desires, then launching.
This new setup allows me to get a really clean read on the DESIRE which is the most important part IN desire testing after all. Since all variables have been eliminated.
This setup also allows me to run several high quality product tests at once across multiple stores, or within one store in the same niche.