The Random Walk Promotional ensemble helps detect inflection such as the ones recently seen in $LULU $RH, $CAVA $CBRL $WING $AEO when brands start spamming their customers and leads with emails.
$VSXY Our promotional ensemble detected the inflection in Victoria's Secret from dramatically reduced email campaigns and discounts. Both VS and Pink reduced steep discounts. When organic demand explodes brands do not need to push promotions to the inbox!
$WING US consumers are getting squeezed. Wingstop comps sink 9%. The fast casual restaurants have been firing off discounts at an unprecedented rate. Wingstop resorted to new discount campaigns our system captured.
$CMG Has its new marketing strategy driven engagement? Our new campaign search feature allows direct investigation, we paired this with Claude to assess the impact of recent marketing. https://t.co/2AgskWOYBb
$LULU Shares making 6 year lows, we uploaded the Random Walk indices to Claude here's what it said: "The promotional volume (especially desperation) prefectly coincided with comps and shares turning negative, its a textbook case of the market catching up to what the promotional volume showed"
$RH Another dud. As demand has faded our promotional ensemble picked up the massive ramp in steep discount campaigns. Excessive spring clearance, extended sales, more 70% off language. The first thing a struggling brand does is throttle up campaigns.
$ASO earnings call narrative typically is unhelpful for investors and disconnected from reality. After comps and traffic flipped negative management sent 90% off email campaigns. What do they call these on the call? "promotional optimization"
$TPR Incredible turnaround for Coach continues. The Random Walk promotional ensemble has tracked this now 25% growth. From having to constantly blast out significant and steep discount in prior years to having now nearly eliminated email discounts campaigns!
$AEO Promotional ensemble. Inflection in Aerie , with negative comps just a few Qs ago to 20%+. When organic demand turns on- email discounts turn off!
@BenSasse Bless you Ben . You have inspired me greatly with your work and I hope to continue to learn from your example of grace, gratitude and strength to question convention wisdom.