HOLD MORE CASH - says legendary tech investor
@DanielTNiles in this week’s episode of The Master Investor Podcast, just six weeks after he correctly called for a more aggressive risk-on approach at the end of March, since when Nasdaq has surged 25%.
SEMIS: “So in the short term, are semis at the most overbought they've been since 2000 or 1995 before they had horrific corrections? Absolutely.”
IRAN WAR: “If it going to take a lot longer for this situation at the Strait of Hormuz to get sorted out, then you're going to see stock prices collapse to catch up with where bond yields & oil prices are. I don't think that's the case. But, I'm viewing things as you should be sitting with a lot of cash.”
MEGA CAP WINNER: “It's obviously Google. They have the full stack & they're the ones you should bet on...they've got everything & they've got the massive cashflow to fund it.”
However, the shift to Agentic AI should sustain earnings upgrades this year, making today more like 1998 than 99/00, but be prepared for 30-50% AI trade pull-back in early 2027.
We also discussed what the shift to Agentic AI means for $NVDA (not ideal), Intel $INTC (great) and $AMD (good); why concerns over $META are NOT overdone; why $AAPL fortunes should improve; why $AMZN & $MSFT are struggling short term, & why $GOOGL shines bright.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
02:39 Why today feels like 1998, NOT 1999/2000
05:25 Agentic AI suggests more upside to bull market
07:52 But Iran War could derail things
11:18 Agentic AI means CPU’s over GPU’s
13:35 Semis are overbought
17:51 Is shift to CPUs bad for Nvidia?
19:13 Google the standout performer
21:15 Apple leadership transition
23:45 Meta concerns not overdone
25:37 Google best placed
27:36 30-50% AI crash by early 2027
30:01 Concerns about OpenAI
34:27 Upcoming IPOs, oil, bonds signal problems
36:16 Hold more cash
37:48 Kevin Warsh a positive, but watch bonds
45:44 Conclusion: 1998 or 1999?
🚨 MINNESOTA DAYCARE FRAUD IS EVEN WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT!
Daycare owner texting a friend:
“How much longer are you gonna do the daycares game?”
Reply:
“Another year or two, then I’ll buy some nice homes.”
While on public assistance… vacationing in Dubai.
Blatant as hell. Walz did nothing for years. Ignored whistleblowers. Raised taxes.
Tim Walz knew what was happening and should be held accountable.
@fitgirltruth Copy the link and go to The Wayback machine and enter it. You will need to go back a few years before you find it. https://t.co/w8by0yeVE9
You’re shown carefully selected images, same clouds, same angle, supposedly 12 hours apart, and no one stops to think. A skydiver can film everything in high quality, but somehow a multi-billion dollar mission gives you blurry, choppy footage, and people just accept it. They show you fragments, they distract you when it matters, and as long as no one questions it, the illusion holds https://t.co/VvDf4qOAlb
🚨 Dr. John Eastman just dropped a TRUTH BOMB outside SCOTUS
“The 14th Amendment has been COMPLETELY MISREAD!”
It was for former slaves, NOT automatic citizenship for everyone born here.
“This misinterpretation is DETRIMENTAL to our nation’s future.”
Somehow John Cornyn is narrowly leading Ken Paxton in the GOP Senate Race in Texas
Texas needs to vote for Ken Paxton for America First
Charlie Kirk warned us about John Cornyn
“He doesn't care about you. He doesn't care about his voters. Any decent person that gets booed by their voters — would stop and say, maybe I'm heading in the wrong direction, and they'd back off. Instead, John Cornyn gets in front of the entire Texas Republican Convention and gets booed, and then he goes back to D.C and says, I'm gonna show those people. I'm gonna show the deplorables I'm in charge.”