RacingPicks365

Handicapping & race horse analysis for the average player. My picks are a collection of my own race analysis from years of experience at tracks across America

[RacingPicks365 @RacingPicks365]

Sooo I played one maiden race this morning @GulfstreamPark then walked out the door to go crabbing at the beach…. Came home to this:
$57 pays $1469!!!
Oh and I caught 4 dungies! 🦀

#HorseRacingTips #HorseRacing #Handicapping #RacingPicks #POTD #RP365 #LetsGo #RacingPicks365

[RacingPicks365 @RacingPicks365]

Mountaineer Race 8…. Favorite handily out in front, drops himself out and a 55-1 horse takes it as others never tried????

They call these jockey races

[RacingPicks365 @RacingPicks365]

This is how you use your FanDuel Free $10 Bet! Thanks @FanDuel_Racing

[Dave Portnoy @stoolpresidente]

As a reminder the people who own the track (Stronach) own one of the largest CAW’s. No other industry in the world would this type of insider trading be allowed. And all we the gambler ask for is shut em off 5 minutes before post so we can lose our money fair and square

[Tinky @Tinky47flat]

If you aren't familiar with the name Bill Benter, and/or are interested in CAWs in American racing, this relatively brief video overview may prove interesting.

Benter's computer driven approach to betting on horses was the genesis of the type of modeling that is used widely today in betting markets, and not just in racing. Interestingly, unlike CAWs, he didn't require any takeout edge (i.e. rebates) in Hong Kong in order to succeed, and eventually thrive.

[RacingPicks365 @RacingPicks365]

Hoping to get this home for a little extra Derby day fire power tomorrow 🔥 💰

[RacingPicks365 @RacingPicks365]

Todays Pick Of The Day is R13 @ChurchillDowns #KentuckyOaks

We’re going to take #5 MEANING & #10 PROM QUEEN over the 2-9-11-15

EXACTA 5-10 / 2-5-9-10-11-15

Sorry @stoolpresidente

#HorseRacingTips #HorseRacing #Handicapping #RacingPicks #POTD #RP365 #LetsGo #RacingPicks365

[Brivael Le Pogam @brivael]

Elon Musk avait dit un truc qui m'avait marqué sur l'allocation de ressources. En substance : passé un certain niveau de richesse, l'argent n'est plus de la consommation, c'est de l'allocation de capital.

Cette phrase change tout.

L'économie, dans le fond, c'est juste un problème d'allocation. Tu as des ressources finies et des usages infinis. Qui décide où va quoi ?

Imagine une cour de récré. 100 enfants, des paquets de cartes Pokémon distribués au hasard. Tu laisses faire. Très vite, un ordre émerge. Les bons joueurs accumulent les cartes rares, les collectionneurs trient, les négociateurs trouvent des deals. Personne n'a planifié. Et pourtant chaque carte finit dans les mains de celui qui en tire le plus de valeur. Le système maximise le bonheur total de la cour. C'est ça, la main invisible.

Maintenant fais entrer la maîtresse. Elle trouve ça injuste. Léo a 50 cartes, Tom en a 3. Elle confisque, redistribue, impose l'égalité. Trois effets immédiats. Les bons joueurs arrêtent de jouer, à quoi bon. Les mauvais n'ont plus de raison de progresser, ils auront leur part. Les échanges s'effondrent. La cour est égale, et morte. Elle a maximisé l'égalité, elle a détruit le bonheur.

Le problème de la maîtresse, c'est qu'elle ne peut pas avoir l'information que la cour avait collectivement. C'est le problème du calcul économique de Mises, formulé en 1920. L'URSS a essayé de le résoudre pendant 70 ans avec le Gosplan. Résultat : pénuries, queues, effondrement. Pas parce que les Soviétiques étaient bêtes, parce que le problème est mathématiquement insoluble en mode centralisé.

Quand Musk a 200 milliards, il ne les consomme pas, il les alloue. SpaceX, Starlink, Neuralink, xAI. Chaque dollar est un pari sur le futur. Et lui a un track record. PayPal, Tesla, SpaceX. Il a démontré qu'il sait identifier des problèmes immenses et y allouer des ressources avec un rendement spectaculaire.

L'État aussi a un track record. Hôpitaux qui s'effondrent, éducation qui décline, dette qui explose, services publics qui se dégradent malgré des budgets en hausse constante. Le marché identifie les bons allocateurs, la politique identifie les bons communicants.

Le profit n'est pas une finalité, c'est un signal. Il dit : tu as alloué des ressources rares vers un usage que les gens valorisent suffisamment pour payer. Plus le profit est gros, plus la création de valeur est grande. Quand Starlink est rentable, ça veut dire que des millions de gens dans des zones rurales ont enfin internet. Quand un ministère est en déficit, ça veut dire qu'il consomme plus qu'il ne produit. L'un crée, l'autre détruit, et on appelle ça redistribution.

Dans nos sociétés il y a deux catégories d'acteurs. Les entrepreneurs et les bureaucrates. L'entrepreneur prend un risque personnel pour identifier un problème, mobiliser des ressources, créer une solution. S'il se trompe il perd. S'il a raison, ses clients gagnent, ses employés gagnent, ses fournisseurs gagnent, l'État collecte des impôts. Il est la cellule de base du progrès humain.

Le bureaucrate ne prend aucun risque personnel. Son salaire est garanti. Au mieux il maintient une rente existante. Au pire il la détruit par excès de réglementation, mauvaise allocation forcée, incitations perverses qui découragent ceux qui produisent. Mais dans aucun cas il ne crée.

Regarde les 50 dernières années. iPhone, internet civil, SpaceX, Tesla, Google, Amazon, Stripe, mRNA, ChatGPT. Toutes des inventions privées, portées par des entrepreneurs, financées par du capital risque. Pas un seul ministère n'a inventé quoi que ce soit qui ait changé ta vie au quotidien.

La France est devenue le laboratoire mondial de la dérive bureaucratique. 57% du PIB en dépenses publiques, record absolu. Une administration tentaculaire, une fiscalité qui pénalise la création de richesse. Résultat : décrochage face aux États-Unis, à l'Allemagne, à la Suisse. Fuite des cerveaux. Désindustrialisation. Dette qui explose.

Et le pire c'est que la mauvaise allocation s'auto-renforce. Plus l'État prélève, moins les entrepreneurs créent. Moins ils créent, moins il y a de base fiscale. Plus l'État s'endette et taxe. Boucle de rétroaction négative parfaite. La maîtresse pense qu'elle aide, et chaque année la cour produit moins.

Dans nos sociétés, ce sont les entrepreneurs, toujours, qui font avancer la civilisation. Les bureaucrates au mieux maintiennent une rente, au pire la détruisent. Aucune société n'a jamais progressé en taxant ses créateurs pour subventionner ses gestionnaires.

La question n'est jamais qui a combien. C'est qui alloue le mieux la prochaine unité de ressource pour maximiser le futur de l'humanité. La réponse depuis 200 ans n'a jamais changé. Ce ne sont pas les fonctionnaires.

[Dan Wolken @DanWolken]

Gambling syndicates are causing mayhem in horse racing by using algorithms to make huge, last-second bets that crush odds for regular players.

Inside the world of Computer Assisted Wagering and why racetracks can’t (won’t) stop it. For @yahoosports https://t.co/3yqDjrLouf

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: Just five minutes before Trump's announcement to halt the attacks on Iran, massive trades reportedly hit the market.

In one move, $1.5 billion in S&P 500 (ES) futures was bought while $192 million in oil (CL) futures was sold.

These orders were 4–6x larger than anything else at the time.

The trader seemingly made huge gains.

Unusual.

[FanDuel Sportsbook @FDSportsbook]

Me putting a 4-leg parlay together 💀

[Griffin Johnson @lmgriffjohnson]

Kentucky Derby > Super Bowl

[RacingPicks365 @RacingPicks365]

@ohheyitsnance @TheMichelleYu @KentuckyDerby $700 for SRO!!

[RacingPicks365 @RacingPicks365]

@_Investinq “If you can’t pay for it, don’t buy it!”

[Dave Portnoy @stoolpresidente]

I have pretty much quit betting on horse racing. And race 2 at Gulfstream is a reminder why this sport sucks now. #caws #crime #jail

[RacingPicks365 @RacingPicks365]

@joecgray Nice start!

[RacingPicks365 @RacingPicks365]

Happy new year! @santaanitapark

[Cynical Publius @CynicalPublius]

RE: Fraud in Minnesota

I’m not sure that most Americans understand that in large swathes of humanity, there is no actual concept of “fraud,” particularly fraud against the government. Instead, there is a belief in the virtue of getting away with what you can to help yourself and your tribe.

I spent a lot of my life in the Middle East and Central Asia, working closely with foreign contractors and foreign governments to provide support to American military operations. As a US Army officer with a big checkbook courtesy of Uncle Sam, I can’t really count the sheer number of times I was offered bribes to award a contract, or falsify records to do things like create larger (fake) headcounts at places like dining facilities, or to just simply be on the take for future illegal requests.

Of course I had enough sense to never comply with such requests. Moreover, they were never explicitly structured as “bribes”; instead it was usually along the lines of “Here I have these Rolexes as gifts for you and your wife to show our friendship.” (Unfortunately, too many US officers and NCOs succumbed to this siren song and ended up breaking rocks in Leavenworth.)

The weird thing about this to me was that whenever I turned down such an offering, it was treated as a grave insult. I was the one in the wrong, and not the fraudster trying to bribe me. They considered it rude that I was in their country and refused to accept how things got done. After all, why did I not want to help my tribe by helping their tribe?

Let me repeat: in these cultures, FRAUD IS NOT EVEN A CONCEPT. There is only what helps your tribe.

Such thought processes are so alien to Americans and much of the West. We are raised on the presumption that our institutions are valid, that the rule of law always prevails, and that integrity is universal. We need these presumptions to have working governments and economies, and without those presumptions—without the mental barrier that causes us not to accept outright fraud—our nation would quickly descend into the economic and social hellscape of countries like…. ummm… you know…. SOMALIA!

So when we import people en masse from cultures that accept bribery and fraud as routine, acceptable ways to advance one’s tribe, we should not be surprised that things like the $8 BILLION fraud schemes of the Somali population in Minnesota happen so easily.

Introducing a fraud-based culture based on tribalism into America is like introducing some sort of lethal virus into a population that has no natural immunity. The virus will spread and grow, unchecked, because it is so alien to the host. Similarly, a culture of fraud is anathema to American thinking, and it must be cut out before it consumes the host.

So when you see and hear patriotic Americans decrying what is happening in Minnesota or elsewhere, and when they seek deportation of the offenders, it is not “racism,” it is not “bigotry,” it is not “xenophobia”; instead, it is preserving the American tradition of responsible institutions and national integrity.

[Gulf-SchemePark(Decoupling soon) @Jackpotkimm]

The odds go up about 40% on the 8 horse after the jockey falls off. 🤤

[Matt Miller @xmattmillerx]

PERSONAL OPINION - NOT CRITICIZING ANYONE ELSE'S CHOICES

After discussions with a few friends this week and being asked what I think about the current state of things (largely around CAW activity and the impending change in the way gambling is taxed), I've made a few decisions regarding betting on sports and the horses.

1 - Until the repeal/amendment of the Federal law regarding the taxation of gambling winnings taking effect next year (essentially allowing only 90% of losses to be deducted), I'm done with SPORTS betting effective immediately. Next year it's going to be too expensive after taking the tax hit into account and I'm just not profitable enough to overcome the effects of the new tax law. To make sure I'll be ready when the time comes, I've quit almost entirely already - not a bad idea to do right now when you realize how much it will cost you next year if you can't figure out a way to stop. I'd test the brakes before you need them.

2 - With respect to horseracing CASH betting, effective the day after the Breeders' Cup (because I believe CAWs will be allowed to have their usual way with those pools), I'm done with all betting into pools not adequately protected from CAWs. That will end up excluding certain racetracks and bet types entirely. I see zero reason to call out any particular racetrack management team for making the same deal with the devil that others made, and I recognize that in many respects things have been this way for a while. At some point, enough is enough. When winning doesn't feel like winning any more, it's clear that point has arrived. I expect my non-tournament handle next year to be somewhere in the range of 10% of what it was in the last few years. (Also keep in mind - this form of gambling income is subject to the same tax problem facing sports bettors next year.)

3 - With respect to horseracing TOURNAMENT betting, it's going to take more than the ongoing CAW catastrophe to make me go away, and thankfully I can absorb the tax hit next year given my level of profitability. The "prize pool" portion of tournament winnings not being subject to pilfering by the CAWs with the permission of the racetracks still makes this a super fun/worthwhile activity for me.

I don't mean to make any enemies with this post - especially the terrific people working in horseracing who I genuinely appreciate, like and respect. Nothing here is meant to call out any particular person or organization. It's just a statement of my personal views/intentions. Everyone is welcome to decide for themselves what is best for them.

I sure hope the situation improves. I'm being awfully careful here to avoid saying something that I might want to take back in the future if there is some change (or if my understanding of things is wrong in any way).

[Ray Paulick @raypaulick]

When the advocate/influencer horse racing was banking on discovers what’s really going on in betting pools with computer assisted wagering.