Raivat Shah

hacking | alum @NUSComputing @nuscollege | Previously @garena @paypal

[Raivat Shah @RaivatShah]

working at startups is asking urself everyday: what's the most high-leverage thing i can do?

[Raivat Shah @RaivatShah]

excited for this @rajnishkumar 🙌🏼 can't wait to read

[rajnishkumar @rajnishkumar]

Tomorrow's the day! I am hosting a closed-door reading & conversation in Gurugram with @agarwal_gaurav for my book Made in Fire.
If you’re an early-stage founder? Request an invite, we have five open slots: https://t.co/AixkgUaXsi
You'll meet ixigo leadership plus a few investors joining for the evening.
We'll follow up with shortlisted founders over email.

[Raivat Shah @RaivatShah]

@dabit3 so cute!!

[Alok Jain ⚡ @WeekendInvestng]

My morning walking partner today was a Dubai NRI who lives here for few months of the year.

He said over last decade he invested large amounts in stocks and real estate in India and has got decent returns in INR

But he add as soon as I start seeing post tax dollar returns for me as a global investor my India investments do not stand out

He added that while India is great for living and spending and being with family etc but he does not feel confident for the future here for investing. Says innovation is all hapenning in USA and China.

How will the FM break this perception and change the course!?? Need some big bang out of box thinking and execution.

The low hanging fruit is easier taxation for residents and non residents perhaps

@nsitharaman

[Ricardo @Ric_RTP]

Mark Zuckerberg is bankrupting a $22 billion startup because they refused to sell to him.

The company is Kalshi.

They run the largest prediction market in the US. Users bet real money on real-world outcomes.

Last year, prediction markets did $28 billion in monthly volume across the industry.

This month, they did $220 BILLION.

The sector literally 8x'd in a single year.

Bernstein now projects the entire prediction market industry will hit $1 TRILLION by 2030.

Zuckerberg saw the growth curve coming. Last year, when Kalshi was valued at only $2 billion, he sat down with founder and CEO Tarek Mansour to discuss buying the entire company.

Mansour said no.

Kalshi went on to raise at $11 billion in December. Then $22 billion in March. It is now pursuing a $40 billion round and openly weighing an IPO.

Zuckerberg's response:

He walked back to Meta headquarters, took every piece of information he learned in that meeting, and directed a small internal team to build a Kalshi clone from the ground up.

Meta's version is called Arena. It uses Llama to generate the questions. Every one of Meta's 3.5 billion daily users will get access.

And here's where the plan gets ruthless...

Meta is deliberately launching with play money. That single decision lets Zuckerberg dodge every gambling regulator on Earth while he trains billions of users to bet on prediction markets.

Meanwhile Kalshi is spending millions fighting state gambling laws, the CFTC, an Illinois sports tax, a Minnesota felony statute, and the Department of Justice.

Kalshi is the crash test dummy. Meta is the getaway driver.

The moment the regulatory war is settled, Zuckerberg flips the switch. Arena becomes a real-money market, and 3.5 billion users are already trained to use it. Kalshi's user base of a few million cannot compete.

This is the exact playbook Meta ran on Snapchat in 2016 when Instagram Stories launched. It is the exact playbook they ran on TikTok in 2020 when Reels launched. It is the exact playbook they ran on Twitter in 2023 when Threads launched.

The FTC took Meta to court over this pattern last year and called it "buy or bury." The judge sided with Meta. So the playbook is legally protected.

Tarek Mansour walked into a meeting with the most predatory copycat in tech history and gave him the entire pitch deck for the fastest growing product in Silicon Valley.

Six months later, Zuckerberg is executing on that intel while Mansour is stuck defending his company in courts across America.

Kalshi survived Zuckerberg's offer. But it probably will not survive Zuckerberg's clone.

Meta ended Q1 with $81 billion in cash. That is enough to buy every prediction market company on Earth six times over. Zuckerberg is choosing to STEAL them instead because he can, and because the courts already gave him permission.

The next 12 months will decide whether Kalshi becomes a $50 billion IPO or a cautionary tale about what happens when a founder says no to Meta.

What do you think?

[Raivat Shah @RaivatShah]

@bcherny thanks this helps a lot! i'd argue #1 will be needed at any stage to keep growing

[Raivat Shah @RaivatShah]

@jeffzwang So cool to see this - and value prop is v v clear 🫡

[Raivat Shah @RaivatShah]

@ChatGPTapp @OpenAI @sama @gabrielchua cc @thsottiaux

[Raivat Shah @RaivatShah]

@ChatGPTapp @OpenAI really neat onboarding experience for codex!

@sama @gabrielchua 🙌🏼

[Raivat Shah @RaivatShah]

@OfficialLoganK super cool!

[Raivat Shah @RaivatShah]

@alokebajpai so cool!

[Raivat Shah @RaivatShah]

@alokebajpai Love this! DMed you

[Raivat Shah @RaivatShah]

@ChitrakShivalik Really like the analogy! Looking forward to this

[OpenAI @OpenAI]

Introducing ChatGPT Images 2.0

A state-of-the-art image model that can take on complex visual tasks and produce precise, immediately usable visuals, with sharper editing, richer layouts, and thinking-level intelligence.

Video made with ChatGPT Images

[Raivat Shah @RaivatShah]

@DivesTech Welcome to 🇸🇬! would love to meet if you're free anytime or attend any sessions you're leading!

[Raivat Shah @RaivatShah]

@aroraharshita33 Congrats 🙌🏼

[Raivat Shah @RaivatShah]

@mattbergland Congratulations!! Love the pie date!

[Raivat Shah @RaivatShah]

@eglyman love this "would take dinner with Elon over $100k" 😂 I would def take dinner with @elonmusk

[Raivat Shah @RaivatShah]

@tonybruess @JoinArden hey @tonybruess super cool! Does arden work across the world or only in North America / US?

[Raivat Shah @RaivatShah]

@AnthropicAI @bcherny small request -> pls show time limits in user's local timezone (with parenthesis to clarify utc time) or am I missing something?

[Raivat Shah @RaivatShah]

@ManusAI launched exactly 1 year ago today at 10 pm Singapore time! Anniversary celebration and meet up today in 🇸🇬

What an absolute journey 👏👏