📊 Google: P/E ~16x (el más barato de los tres, vs. promedio de ~22-25x)
El mercado la castigo por el cash flow negativo y capex agresivo.🩸
Cómo reaccionará el mercado? 🧐
Microsoft, y Meta reportan earnings 29 de julio. Ambas cotizan con descuento frente a su propio promedio histórico:
📊 Microsoft: P/E ~23x (vs. promedio 10 años de ~31x)
📊 Meta: P/E ~23x (vs. promedio de ~26x, el que menos descuento tiene)
Alphabet just lost 6% in a day. Not because of earnings. Because one person quit.
John Jumper, the DeepMind scientist who co-built AlphaFold and won a Nobel Prize for it, is leaving for Anthropic. And the same week, the co-lead of Google's Gemini models left for OpenAI.
Two of the most important minds in AI, gone from one company, in one week. The market wiped tens of billions off Alphabet over it.
Sit with what that means. In most industries, no single employee moves the stock. Here, one researcher walking out the door is a market event.
That's the tell about where the real moat in AI actually sits. Not in the chips. Not in the data centers. In a few hundred irreplaceable human beings, and the fierce, expensive war to keep them.
Markets are still pricing AI like an infrastructure race. Whoever spends the most on compute wins. But infrastructure can be bought. A Nobel laureate cannot.
The scarcest asset in the most important technology of our time isn't silicon.
It's the people who know what to build with it.