$SPX tailwind for the bulls over 6945, watch for resistance into yesterday's close 65/70. 7000 session cap likely. Floor @ 6920, lose it and expect 6900/VIL. Tomorrow+ outlook on VIX looks, bullish for short term. Could make a base today, avoid 0dte.
$VIX pivots 17, 18.5, 19
$SPX Wow. Some days you end up taking an L; today was that day. We could've flipped over 6875 long but with key levels @ 6900 & implied high @ 6890. I felt compelled that we would cap on the session and it wouldn't be worth it. Instead, it squeezed to the weekly mean! 👀🚀
$SPX (02/06, early-session breakout continuation)
Bias: Bullish continuation (gamma-supported upside)
Gamma regime: Call-dominated (dealers long gamma → controlled upside, buy-the-dip behavior)
Spot: ~6875–6880
Pin zone: 6850–6875 (prior dealer balance / launch zone)
Upside cap: 6900–6940 (call wall + expected move ceiling)
Key support: 6850 → 6835 → 6800 (loss flips structure back to balance)
What to expect
Price broke cleanly above the prior balance range
Dealers are long gamma above 6850 and hedging to the upside
Pullbacks into 6870–6850 are supported, not sold
Momentum stays steady rather than explosive due to long gamma
Trend persists unless spot loses the gamma floor
Bull case
Acceptance and hold above 6875
Continuation toward 6900
Extension into 6925–6940 if calls stay ITM
Upside remains orderly and stair-stepped
Pullbacks remain shallow and bid
Bear case
Failure back below 6850
Rotation toward 6835
Deeper retrace to 6800 if call gamma weakens
Momentum only accelerates lower if gamma flips or dealers unwind
Key takeaway
👉 This is a textbook call-dominated expansion day. The breakout from 6850 occurred with dealers long gamma, forcing hedging flows to support price. As long as SPX holds above the 6850–6875 zone, dips are corrective and trend continuation favors higher prices. True downside risk only appears if spot loses the gamma floor and re-enters the prior balance.
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