ray chinedu

Geologist | Retired| Living

[Prisca @PriscaMutema2]

Zimbabwe's impact on South Africa's economy is so wild that, if it went away today, it'd cause unemployment in South Africa to rise by a full 4%.

This is out of a study we've just concluded for a multinational that's looking to "diversify risk" out of SA.

Last year Zimbabwe sent US$4 billion to South Africa for official imports.

That's roughly equivalent to A THIRD of South Africa's total exports to her largest trading partner (China: ~US$12 billion. Not bad for a country (Zim) of only 16 million people,

It's also roughly 1% of South Africa's entire GDP for 2025 that was exported to Zim, officially.

The actual total Zim spent on imports from SA is about US$7 billion, since smuggled goods from South Africa are conservatively calculated to be about ¾ of official imports in value.

During the same period, South Africa imported only ~US$400 million in Zim goods.

Already, some South Africa companies are being impacted so heavily they're begging @CyrilRamaphosa's @MYANC to batten down the hatches & impose illegal protectionist measures on Zim👇

Dinson Steel in Zim has led to the shutdown of ArcelorMittal SA. Sunny Yi Feng's tiles out of Zimbabwe have seen Italtile crying foul after their turnover was impacted heavily.

If Zim's useless @Min_of_IC were to take the China/Singapore approach to Industry/Commerce that I've been advocating for years now, it'd be catastrophic for SA, @edmnangagwa @MthuliNcube01

@matigary @Mavhure @mimmitwit

[🇺🇸 Kyle Bass 🇹🇼 @Jkylebass]

Texas is the growth engine of the Western world.

With 32 million people, Texas generates nearly $2.9 trillion in GDP. Elon @elonmusk ‘s new Terafab project in Grimes County is projected to add another $1 trillion to the Texas economy over the next decade.

At current pace, Texas will surpass France 🇫🇷 in GDP by 2031.

For comparison: France has 66 million citizens and a GDP of roughly $3.3 trillion. Yet Texas GDP per capita is nearly twice that of France.

President Macron and his government should take a hard look at why a single U.S. state is creating wealth at this scale.

This piece from the Economist gets the gist right but the dynamism and understanding of the sheer scale of what’s happening is missed.
https://t.co/Jz454PEpkV

[Olufemi AWOYEMI @OlufemiAwoyemi]

The substance of the article below is right on point. However, the framing needs to be sharpened further to locate what is missing in the triumphalism that seems to follow such upgrades.

Tilewa Adebayo makes this point clearly when he said that “Nigeria’s move from B− to B (Stable) is positive, but it is not investment grade. It remains in the speculative / non-investment-grade (“junk”) category”.

At 'B', Nigeria sits in what S&P classifies as "highly speculative" territory, two notches above the CCC tier and five notches below the lowest investment-grade rating of 'BBB-'. The Bloomberg news we referenced in the article below captured this in its reporting by noting the upgrade placed Nigeria "five levels below investment grade", which is the standard counting convention

Therefore, in reading the ladder properly, we must note that from B, the path to BBB requires five single-notch upgrades. The sequence runs B to B+, then B+ to BB-, then BB- to BB, then BB to BB+, then BB+ to BBB-. Each is one notch on the S&P long-term scale, and the boundary crossing into investment grade is the fifth step rather than a separate destination beyond the ladder. Most sovereign upgrade events move a single notch at a time.

The African comparison deepens the point materially. Per Samira Mensah, Managing Director of Africa Research and Analytics at S&P Global Ratings, only four African sovereigns currently hold investment-grade ratings on the S&P scale, comprising Mauritius (BBB-), Botswana (BBB after the October 2025 downgrade from BBB+), Morocco (BBB-), and St Helena, which is a British overseas territory.

The harder fact, drawn from the historical record summarised in the African Union's AfCRA brief and corroborated by the OECD Africa Capital Markets Report 2025, is that no African sovereign has ever climbed from speculative-grade to investment-grade through reform-driven upgrades.

The four sovereigns currently at investment grade were rated at that level from initial assignment. Nigeria's prospective path is therefore historically unprecedented on the continent, not merely long.

The cost-of-capital prize is therefore substantial. S&P's own published commentary cites Morocco issuing Eurobonds in 2025 at approximately 250 basis points lower than Benin or Côte d'Ivoire in the BB-range, despite all three being African issuers tapping the same global investor pool. The full spread between a B-rated sovereign and a BBB- rated sovereign in normal market conditions is typically 400 to 600 basis points across the Eurobond curve, widening in periods of stress.

For Nigeria, sustained compression of that premium is the quantifiable measure of reform success, with each successive single-notch upgrade plausibly delivering an incremental 80 to 150 basis points of issuance saving on long-dated paper.

On pace, S&P typically reassesses sovereigns every twelve months and moves single notches when positive trajectories hold. Five notches would imply at least five to seven years of unbroken progression, and the historical African record cautions against assuming linearity.

Commodity cycles, security events, and fiscal slippage have repeatedly stalled or reversed upgrade cycles for peer sovereigns, including South Africa, Namibia, and Tunisia, all three of which previously held investment grade and have since lost it.

We should now learn how to calibrate outcomes, not celebrate inevitables.

READ THE INITIAL ANALYSIS>>> https://t.co/F9W2dxbvi7 via @proshare

[ADEWOLE @AdewoleofGod1]

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FlackBox CCNA Lab Guide: A free 300+ page PDF that walks you through practical configurations.

Keith Barker (YouTube): Excellent for "Subnetting Saturdays" and deep dives into specific tricky topics.

[Rufybaba @Rufyb]

If you want to really, really stay at the top and flawlessly eat in the financial services industry, you need to have a very solid knowledge and understanding across these four cardinals:

✑ Understanding macroeconomics
✑ Knowledge of finance
✑ Understanding how businesses work and the various types of business models
✑ Knowledge of accounting

It is like combining economics, finance, business admin, and accounting into one.

[Blossom Ozurumba-Ehiarinmwian @blossomozurumba]

According to the World Giving Report 2025, Nigeria tops the world in key philanthropy metrics. Nigerians give an average of 2.83% of their income to charity. This is the highest, globally.

[Immortal Stat @immortalstats]

PETER OBI
🇳🇬PUBLIC PURSE VS PERSONAL GIVING: WHO FUNDED HEALTHCARE ?

[Olúṣeun Onìgbìndé @seunonigbinde]

Approx FG numbers:

Debt Service Cost ~ N16tn
Salaries ~ N7tn
Statutory Transfers ~ N4tn
Overhead costs ~ N500bn
Service wide votes ~ N1.5tn

FG needs approx N30tn to recurrent costs. If you properly rinse the revenue, it doesn’t do more than N20tn currently.

That’s why it needs to capital expenditure discipline. There’s no substitute.

[Jola @Jollz]

Nigerians oh

Please register to vote/ Review your voter registration.

https://t.co/RUpenJZIej

[CHUKS 🍥 @ChuksEricE]

“One of the pilots who flew me said I gave him a scholarship to learn how to fly. A Reverend Father who preached here also said he benefited from my scholarship, even though I have never met him before. I want a country where people can attain certain positions without knowing anyone. I once met a man working at a restaurant in Abuja who said he was a first-class graduate, how can someone with such qualifications be in that position? Any contractor who can come forward with evidence that they received a contract under my government and that I asked for a percentage from the money of the contract, I will quit politics.”

— Mr. Peter Obi

[Peter Obi @PeterObi]

From Pharisee to Tax Collector: Rethinking Tinubu’s Kenyan Comparison

In a recent remark in Yenagoa, Bola Ahmed Tinubu suggested that Nigerians should find solace in being “better off than Kenya and other African countries.” While this may have been intended to soften the impact of economic hardship and rising fuel prices, the comment risks downplaying the severity of the current crisis. It echoes the biblical parable of the Pharisee and the Tax Collector in the Gospel of Luke (18:9–14). A similar warning is found in the Qur’an (53:32), which cautions against self-righteousness.

Like the Pharisee who boasted of his superiority over others to mask his own spiritual void, such downward comparisons serve more as a refuge than a remedy. This validated an earlier dismissive remark by President Ahmed Bola Tinubu during electioneering: “Na statistics we go shop?” Yet statistics remain indispensable - they are the language through which nations understand their condition and chart progress. No country can develop in isolation from measurable realities or without comparing itself with peers. Comparisons, when properly grounded, are not instruments of escapism but tools of accountability. What is objectionable is not comparison itself, but comparison stripped of credible, verifiable data—mere tax collector comparisons that soothe rather than solve.

On key development indicators such as security, the Human Development Index, life expectancy, GDP per capita, literacy levels, and electricity access, Kenya consistently outperforms Nigeria. Nigeria is the fourth most terrorised nation in the world, while Kenya is not among the ten worst. Kenya’s HDI ranking is 143 out of 180 countries, with a coefficient of about 0.630, compared to Nigeria’s ranking of 164 out of 180, with a coefficient of about 0.530. Its GDP per capita is roughly $2,200–$2,300, compared to Nigeria’s $807–$835. Kenya’s poverty rate is about 43% of the population (approximately 23 million people), while Nigeria’s is about 63% (around 150 million people), over six times that of Kenya. Kenya’s life expectancy is about 67 years, while Nigeria’s is about 54 years. The literacy rate in Kenya is approximately 81–85%, compared to Nigeria’s 62–65%.

Kenya’s electricity access is higher, while Nigeria has one of the lowest levels of electricity access in the world. Kenya has about 3.5 million out-of-school children, while Nigeria has about 20 million. Kenya’s inflation rate has been about 4.5% or lower over the past three years, while Nigeria’s has remained above 15% within the same period. Kenya’s exchange rate has been around USD 1 to KES 130 over the past three years, whereas Nigeria’s exchange rate rose from below ₦500/$1 to above ₦1,250/$1 within the same period. Even with developments in the Middle East and rising oil prices, Kenyans have not experienced the sharp increases in petroleum product prices seen in Nigeria.

Across other key indicators, Kenya also performs better. In the end, these indices clearly show that Kenya ranks higher than Nigeria on several development metrics. The standard of living of Kenyans is better than that of Nigerians. If the President considers Kenyans to be suffering despite these stronger figures, then Nigerians are in a far more difficult situation. He should therefore refrain from self-consolation and, in honest reflection, take responsibility for the situation and make a determined effort to drive improvement. This requires a posture of humility, accountability, and commitment to addressing the factors that have slowed Nigeria’s development.

A new Nigeria is POssible. -PO

[M. O. @Apatapiti_]

If you don't have skin in the game. If your close relatives haven't been killed. If your village hasn't been ravaged. If you've not spent days looking for your relatives. If you sit and enjoy life in the comfort of your home and more, if you are observing a tragedy from afar, you will always find it very easy to speak with such fluency.

Curiously, you see so many good sides (positives) to the current administration BUT every other person is evil and no good sides to highlight.

Anyway, for some of us who have suffered immense loss since the advent of Tinubu and his APC horde, none of these things matter.

We have always had corrupt leaders. World over, leaders are corrupt everywhere. Ab Lincoln even had to resort to vote buying and other antics to get the amendment passed.

None of that can be compared to having malevolent and painfully evil people in power, to whom HUMAN LIFE DOESN'T HOLD ANY WORTH. Especially when such life doesn't share their faith or language.

All in all, God sees all.

[Immortal Stat @immortalstats]

COST PER KILOMETRE: OPEBI-OJOTA VS SECOND NIGER BRIDGE

[Nigeria Stories @NigeriaStories]

BREAKING NEWS: Nigeria’s poverty rate climbs to 63% despite easing inflation

~ World Bank says

[BusinessDayNG @BusinessDayNg]

Nigeria's public finances are facing renewed scrutiny after the World Bank warned that a growing share of federation revenues is being absorbed by deductions before funds reach federal, state and local governments, raising fresh concerns about fiscal sustainability despite stronger inflows.

More than 39 percent of revenues generated in 2025 were consumed by statutory and operational deductions limiting the cash available for public services at a time when borrowing costs remain elevated and fiscal pressures are intensifying.

https://t.co/QjcV5TMJF0

[Intelpoint @TheIntelpoint]

Nigeria’s subnational debt is heavily concentrated. Lagos sits far ahead of other states in both domestic and external debt, accounting for over a quarter of domestic debt and more than a fifth of external debt. But Lagos is not alone in shaping the debt landscape.

A small cluster of states — Rivers, Delta, Enugu, Ogun, and a few others — collectively carry a disproportionate share of Nigeria’s subnational liabilities. Together, they account for over half of domestic debt and a significant portion of external obligations. This concentration suggests that borrowing is not just about need, but also about access to credit markets, revenue streams, and investor confidence.

[Kalu Aja @FinPlanKaluAja1]

If you have not used banks outside Nigeria, I mean African banks, then your local champion post is ok

Many others and I harbour a deep fear of updating our Nigerian banking app, as it may not work after that

You go to Nigeria, and there is hardly any cash at ATMs, but folks under an umbrella in front of the bank have cash

The transfer times in SA, Kenya, and Nigeria are similar; no one waits 2 days for a cash transfer. How can anyone post that? Like 48 hours? In 2026?

Banking is also about credit. Do you know how many Nigerians have accessed a loan from a Nigerian bank? Less than 3%, if you add formal institutions, it rises to 6%. Kenya is like 16% itseat much higher in SA

Nigerian banks are very innovative and resilient, but to turn banking into another political WhatsApp-driven commentary is banal

[TE @Towchukwu]

Benchmark for this budget was $65 per barrel of crude. Brent crude is selling today for $110, a 70% windfall. But deficit is widening.

[Moe @Mochievous]

“Clarity comes from motion” is one of my favorite heuristics for life.