Joel Soo

Bayesian probabilistic swing trader.

Get that 🍞!

[Joel Soo @RealJoelSoo]

May 2026 has been quite good!

Took partial profits on most positions and now letting the rest run. Booked more than 100% profits in $ARM $DELL $MU $SNDK with long term position in $VOO making all time highs.

[Christian Flanders @CFlanders7]

The nature of this game is just brutal. Survival rates are low. Only 16% of the USIC field is reporting profitable in June....I imagine it will be lower after July.

Anyone who has been doing this for 10+ years is an outlier. I always listen when they are generous enough to share their hard-won knowledge/wisdom.

I don't think technically I've improved that much as a trader over the years, I knew everything I needed to know within a year or two. The wisdom to know when to apply it. The patience to WAIT. The patience was, by far, the hardest part for me. It still is. I'm getting much better though!

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

The hard part about this part of the move, which we just got to see through news is that we are breaking down, moving lower and completely reshuffling the order book and flows...

All of this leads to more bearish and lighter exposure.

But knowing Trump we will see a headline or 180 soon enough, which can trigger a massive rally and move back right as exposure levels are thin.

That can create massive moves.

It puts investors in a very weird position of:

1. trusting the breakdown and that trump will act in a different manner than countless times before.

2. Hold tight and be long into a breakdown, risking a massive escalation and blowup.

A market that is headline driven like this is good for active traders but it makes it very hard to position for investors, especially those that want to pyramid and build a position in a trend.

[Joel Soo @RealJoelSoo]

Just entered some $VOO at $679 for long term entry

[Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily @bluechipdaily]

I believe there is at least one more big up move that will set up before end of year, but your financial and mental capital have to be fresh.

My decision to start raising cash and reducing buying in mid-June was when my account volatility started to pick up and my recent news buys in June started to struggle.

When you aren't in sync with the market, and/or your new buys aren't working, it's often a good idea to dial it back and preserve your mental and financial capital until you get back in sync.

[Joel Soo @RealJoelSoo]

@jfsrev never misses. Look at $DDOG today 🤣

[Jeff Sun, CFTe @jfsrev]

$DDOG could easily become another $DELL if you don't use some form of entry criteria as part of your execution to filter yourself from the crowd.

A good setup alone isn't enough. Long-term profitability comes from combining quality setups with quality execution. Without an execution filter, you're simply buying the same pattern everyone else sees and grinding suboptimal result.

PS: 5 years is too long to spend doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different outcome https://t.co/IoQZMPf3VT

[The Setup Factory @thesetupfactory]

Someone is lying

[Joel Soo @RealJoelSoo]

100% cash now

Software RS seems to be fading. Patience..

[Nathan Bancroft @n_bancroft2]

$QQQ

Expectation for me here is that this is just a bear flag in to declining MA's.

Seeing lots of stocks in tech land that look similar on watchlist as well. Might have stocks up 8-15% but remember that oversold rallies can often produce the largest one day gains.

Happy for my expectation to be broken, which would of course be a positive. But guilty until prove innocent here

[Nick Drendel @NickDrendel]

Market pressure lifts a bit and software/cyber security which has been showing great relative strength dumps.

RS still being punished while beaten down stocks get an oversold bounce.

[Leif Soreide @LeifSoreide]

A crash is significantly easier to trade than the chop we are seeing right now. In a crash, nothing sets up, so you simply step aside and sit in cash. This tape, however, is a psychological trap. It offers just enough random movement to tempt you in, only to sell breakouts on contact and squeeze shorts with violent, stop-hunting ramps. Our tradeable universe is shrinking as the market actively hunts liquidity in both directions. Trading serious size in this environment is a losing proposition. Don't take the bait.

[Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc]

Correct. And also not so bad that it cannot get worse. In other words, not oversold enough yet.

[Joel Soo @RealJoelSoo]

The more times $SPY tests the SMA50, the more it will break below it.

[Joel Soo @RealJoelSoo]

Big yikes $SPCX

[PurpleDrinkCapital @PurpleDrink_LLC]

Thought today was an extremely alarming session and cut a lot of exposure into the close

[Prof @TheProfInvestor]

The simple rule of thumb.

Trend up VS Trend down

When the index's 21 EMA crosses above the 50 SMA on the daily - you add exposure.

When the index's 21 EMA crosses below the 50 SMA on the daily - you reduce exposure.

That's it.

No panic selling. No FOMO buying. No guessing.

Complication resolved for everyone.

[The Setup Factory @thesetupfactory]

No buys today, still in cash, I see no reason to risk my hard earned money in this crappy tape

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

$KOSPI showed no continuation off of the $SOXX $SOXL bounce on Friday and instead failed and closed weak.

The US side might be gapping up this morning but $QQQ is pushing into resistance and the market that started the fail is not bouncing for now.

This dynamic opens up a short trade to me, with far smaller size than prior days but nonetheless one I like participating in.

The weak day 2 post bounce day gap up is one I have chased many times over the years and almost always got burned on.

Trade below.

[Joel Soo @RealJoelSoo]

Not the time to be cute when $VIX just popped above the trend line and is hovering above the EMA20.

Deleveraged most positions today, only long $PANW

[Clement Ang @Clement_Ang17]

20 July 2026:

Market Plan: Facemask and chill as the mean reversion takes its course 😛

[Joel Soo @RealJoelSoo]

Broke even on $SNOW $AAPL

Don't want to get chopped up if there's any weakness.

[Joel Soo @RealJoelSoo]

Current positions (17 Jul 2026)
$AAPL $CRWD $PANW $SNOW potential new soldiers for the next leg up while market chops.

Nothing to do for now.