@chartistryta The problem with this one isnt the technicals, it's the fundamentals; $PDD is under massive scrutiny by the SAMR. They got over 100 agents at their headquarters doing active raids rn. An official investigation could be announced any minute
I drank a lot of beer in college. Stayed out too late.
Over half the team didn’t drink during the season to “take track more seriously.”
I became a D1 All-American in Track and left with 4 school records.
There is something to be said for not taking things too seriously.
I’m gratified by the response I received on my previous thread highlighting Nvidia’s $NVDA accounting tricks and buyback shenanigans.
Q3 was more of the same. Let's get into it.
🧵
Well if this isnt the ultimate quote for bubbles. Buffett always says that every bubble is started bc of a good idea.
The biggest mistake I see “investors” make is that their investment idea is purely qualitative. But as Prof Aswath says, a story without numbers is just a fairytale.
In the 1970s, North Korea ordered 1,000 Volvo cars from Sweden, as a response to its emerging economy. The cars were shipped and delivered but North Korea just didn't bother paying and ignored the invoice. To this day, the bill remains unpaid, making it the largest car theft in history.
🗣️ 𝘾𝙧𝙪𝙢𝙗𝙨 𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙝𝙚𝙧𝙚! 🥐🥐
𝗟𝗜𝗩𝗘 ➡️ @jam_croissant breaks down the latest trends in volatility and what to expect from the Fed with @OJRenick: https://t.co/9YGu1ApzG8
Perfectly matching and replicating colors just by seeing them is an art, and, while it's also a very useful task, people who can do this are primarily artists.
I feel that the most misunderstood and misused word in investing is “risk”
People often confuse risk with volatility. Something can be volatile and not risky, and something can be risky and not volatile.
With that said, risk is also about YOUR understanding, and not the market and its participant’s understanding of the asset. Risk isnt inately in the asset that has been purchased.
The goal for any investor is to find areas they understand better than most and to find mispricings in those areas that arent understood by the massss.
To me, risk is based on 1.) the price you pay for an asset and 2.) your understanding of that price relative to its intrinsic value
If I offer you an iphone 15 for $100000, it is far riskier than an iphone 15 for $100.
Same asset. Different price. Different risk.
Think about the tops snd bottoms of markets. Would you rather have bought in March of 2000 at 1500 on S&P or March of 2009 at 666 on S&P?
Would you rather have bought real estate in 2006 or 2009?
I dont buy #bitcoin bc even bitcoin “experts” cant explain why $300 vs $3000 vs $30,000 is the right price. They just talk qualitatively.
I dont own $NVDA or $TSLA bc the assumptions I have to make to justify todays price doesnt make sense to me relative to the cash flows that would likely occur from those assumptions.
Could my assumptions be wrong? Of course!
I own $pypl and $sfm and 10 other stocks bc even tho their prices could very well decrease, I feel I have enough margin of safety and understanding of their cash flows to give me a good LONG TERM return. Far better than the future cash flows of high flying hype stocks followed by the masses.
Understand risk by understanding your areas of competency and then figuring out if you can properly come up with intrinsic value for the asset. Factor in both qualitative and quantitative aspects to come up with proper intrinsic value.
The #Bears have Larry Borom and Teven Jenkins pull to the right.
Darrynton Evans gets the pitch to the left.
The Vikings stop this play for -5 yards.
What is happening?