Gunasekhar T 🇮🇳

नारायण समारम्भाम् व्यास शंकरमध्यमाम् |

अस्मदाचार्य पर्यंताम् वंदे गुरुपरंपराम् ||

Learning to trade equities. I oppose tax regime

[Gunasekhar T 🇮🇳 @ReallyGuna]

नारायण समारम्भाम् व्यास शंकरमध्यमाम् |
अस्मदाचार्य पर्यंताम् वंदे गुरुपरंपराम् ||

On this Guru Purnima I bow down to my guru Sri Sri Sri Siddheswarananda Bharati swami, Shankaracharya of Siddeshwari Peetham, Courthallam. 🙏🙏🙏

[Gunasekhar T 🇮🇳 @ReallyGuna]

@sandipsabharwal @Dev_Fadnavis I am ok with this if the same can be applied to govt officials/ministers responsible if ppl die due to bad roads, bridge collapses & other negligent actions.

[Gunasekhar T 🇮🇳 @ReallyGuna]

@RShivshankar Pipedreams

[Gunasekhar T 🇮🇳 @ReallyGuna]

@sandipsabharwal @FinMinIndia Not just initiates, they destroy the economy before BJP goes out of power. Why not just nationalize all pvt wealth & give rations for sustenance. 70% of ppl are dependent on them anyway.

[Gunasekhar T 🇮🇳 @ReallyGuna]

@_healthZwealth_ The 2047 buffoonery inspired a lot of ppl to become wannabe experts on everything.

[Gunasekhar T 🇮🇳 @ReallyGuna]

@sandipsabharwal @indSupremeCourt Is that really supreme courts X id? Why it doesn't have blue tick?

[Gunasekhar T 🇮🇳 @ReallyGuna]

@TheClubJunto If someone believes Indian policy makers ever look anywhere else for inspiration, go get your brain checked. We are Vishwaguru, we don't need to improve anything. We are already no.1.

[Gunasekhar T 🇮🇳 @ReallyGuna]

@NoLimitGains It's in downtrend, forming lower lows.

[Gunasekhar T 🇮🇳 @ReallyGuna]

@IronyMeter What will be the MTF meltdown impact?

[Gunasekhar T 🇮🇳 @ReallyGuna]

@ShereenBhan No country has 30% income tax rates starting at meagre salaries like India. We have a cancerous administration since decades.

[Gunasekhar T 🇮🇳 @ReallyGuna]

@thechartist26 Pack of cards will fall... MTF is highly concentrated in small & midcaps which are mostly locked in 5% circuits.

[Gunasekhar T 🇮🇳 @ReallyGuna]

@DealsDhamaka May be they are right. What's the point of frugality when you can achieve nothing meaningful? At least it will leave a lasting memory, who cares if orhers remember it or not?

[Gunasekhar T 🇮🇳 @ReallyGuna]

@deepakshenoy Without US tech companies, India will collapse. It's just a pipe dream that India has leverage over US. We don't.

[Gunasekhar T 🇮🇳 @ReallyGuna]

@Swamp__Watch At least in US you have bunch of these billionaires, in India you can count them on your finger tips of just one hand who own everything.

[Vikas Vij @TheClubJunto]

FM Cites Exit Liquidity (SIPs)

(a) Liquidity does not cause FII selling. It only reduces the seller’s discount (pain) (b) If liquidity is up, prices should rise. But they fell. So what is setting the price: RISK of ₹ fall (c) Here are the FACTS:.

FM Speaks to CNBC

CNBC attributed the following comments to India’s longest continuously serving Finance Minister:

a. Excess liquidity in the Indian stock market has contributed to under-performance and may continue to do so.

b. Capital outflows are one of the biggest risks for India in 2027. Capital flight toward AI is a “concern.”

c. India’s economic fundamentals are “fine.”

Reality Check for Investors

a. Liquidity does not cause FII selling. Liquidity only reduces the discount a seller must accept in order to sell. SIPs are reducing the pain of FII exits.

b. If fundamentals are fine and liquidity is abundant, stock prices should rise. They are falling. So, something else is setting the price: Risk.

c. Risk: FIIs are not willing to bet on India as long as India’s oil import bill remains high, widening the current account deficit (our exports cannot offset excess imports).

d. This single factor (current account deficit) causes ₹ depreciation.

Effects of ₹ fall:

1. Erosion of FII stock holdings
2. Domestic inflation
3. Demand destruction
4. RBI raises interest rates
5. Industry hit by costly loans
6. High FD rates: equities lose

Earnings Rising; Index Falling

Nifty 50 earnings grew 18% YoY in the Q1 FY27, the fastest earnings growth in 10 quarters. Yet, Nifty 50 is falling. Why?

Nifty PE De-rating Is Going On:

FY25 PE: 21.37x
FY26 PE: 19.62x
FY27 PE: 18.66x (fwd PE)

INTERPRETATION:

a. From FY25 to FY27, Nifty 50 PE ratio has de-rated from 21.37x to 18.66x. That’s a decline of 13%.

b. This means, even if the earnings (E) are rising, investors are willing to pay a lesser price (P) for each rupee of profit. (13% less than FY25)

c. Further PE de-rating will happen if ₹ crosses the psychological barrier of 100 in 2027. FIIs won’t keep watching their India stock holdings evaporate.

d. If oil remains above $100 per barrel in 2027, further ₹ fall is virtually unstoppable. India has no export cushion; no defence against oil.

Endpiece: Investor Strategy

The bull case for Indian equities rests on one key assumption: Oil prices will go back to pre-war levels in 2027. But what if they don’t?

Do not go all-in on equities when the odds are so completely unknown. Invest with discipline, and not like a gambler.

@arabicatrader

[Gunasekhar T 🇮🇳 @ReallyGuna]

@WeekendInvestng They were spooked by her IQ.

[Gunasekhar T 🇮🇳 @ReallyGuna]

@thrmchrctvst Pls distinguish consumption tax & income tax. Income tax in our country is brutal.

[Gunasekhar T 🇮🇳 @ReallyGuna]

@NoLimitGains While $10 million USD is the new million, in India earning just $850 USD/month is enough for govt to label you high net worth individual & tax at the highest slab of 35%, 10% cess. Life can be brutal.

[Gunasekhar T 🇮🇳 @ReallyGuna]

@TheSpaGroupBlr Starting from 12Cr. Is it for Indians?

[Gunasekhar T 🇮🇳 @ReallyGuna]

@IndiaNewGen In Bangalore big big apartments get approved without sufficient water supply. 3 months into occupation they call for tankers.

[Gunasekhar T 🇮🇳 @ReallyGuna]

@REDBOXINDIA Finding out the IQ of the entire ministry, the FIIs realized it's high risk to keep their capital here. They are fleeing.