Alex Natour LV RE

New Homes Las Vegas. For the most up to date information call or text Alex 702-595-7338

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“When someone tries to buy all the world's supply of a scarce asset, the more they buy the higher the price goes. ” - Satoshi Nakamoto

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Private payrolls grew by 122,000 in May, stronger than expected, ADP reports

https://t.co/VTHZOSKgt3

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@RobertKennedyJr Congratulations absolutely happy for you guys

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@KobeissiLetter Nice

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@CryptoCon_ Agree. Sitting all cash waiting

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@elonmusk Nice

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@Irina_exh Indeed

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Piper Sandler says Strait of Hormuz to remain closed for months

https://t.co/kVawSE59Ww

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@WHLeavitt Indeed

[Libs of TikTok @libsoftiktok]

DISGUSTING

Sacramento City Councilor and Congressional candidate Mai Vang, REFUSED to say the Pledge and TURNED HER BACK on the American Flag

Her election is next week

Don’t let this anti-American lunatic anywhere near Congress

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@KobeissiLetter Disaster

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@TulsiGabbard Amen

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

Everyone in crypto is waiting for "the final capitulation" before they buy. The logic: bear markets always end with a violent crash at the very bottom, so wait for the pain, then back up the truck.

Three bear markets say this is wrong.

2022: Yes, the worst drop came at the end. FTX in November was the absolute low, one full year from the peak. If you were waiting for maximum pain, that cycle rewarded you. That's the data point everyone remembers.

But look at 2018 and 2019. The first dip after the peak was already the lowest point. The market did not make new lows later. The "final capitulation" never came. If you were waiting for it, you missed the entire bottom.

Same story in 2015. The first big drop around the six-month mark was as low as it got. After that, the bear market bottomed with a higher low. The catastrophic endpoint that everyone was waiting for was the first dip, not the last.

So now in 2026, the crowd is saying: "bear markets last 12 months, midterms are in November, Bitcoin always bottoms around the midterm cycle, so wait for October."

The problem is you are pattern-matching to 2022 and ignoring 2015 and 2018. You have exactly one data point supporting the "wait for October" thesis and two data points directly contradicting it.

Sitting out until the final month of a bear market is a coin flip, at best. And in the meantime, if Bitcoin goes to 60K in June and you are waiting for an October bottom, you are going to rationalize not buying. You will tell yourself: "It hasn't fully capitulated yet." You will watch it bounce from 60K and spend the next bull run wondering what happened.

The 200W SMA does not care about the calendar. In 2015, it hit the SMA early. In 2019, it hit the SMA early. One out of three bear markets bottomed late. Those are the odds you are betting on when you wait for the calendar instead of the chart.

My framework: when BTC touches the 200W SMA, currently around 61K and moving to roughly 63-64K in two months, that is the signal. Not October. Not one more leg down. The SMA is the trigger. Two out of three prior cycles confirm it.

If you are waiting for the worst, you may already be at it.

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@TulsiGabbard @ODNIgov May the lord be with you and your family give you strength and blessings. Thank you for your service

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@DocumentingBTC Massive news bullish for bitcoin

[Documenting ₿itcoin 📄 @DocumentingBTC]

SpaceX disclosed in their IPO paperwork today the company holds 18,712 bitcoin worth $1.4 billion, more than two times as much bitcoin as previously reported.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Bitcoin transaction volume is plummeting, which is a good thing if you're looking for the cycle bottom.

But, we're not quite to cycle bottom territory, and the difference does matter. 2014 spent 10 months at these same levels in the channel.

Crosses into low transaction volume have been pretty accurate for pinning the cycle bottom, usually within one month.

A lot of data is in a similar position. Close, but not quite there.

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Notice the map boundaries

It includes fujairah which is UAE oil and gas pipeline/ port on gulf of Oman.

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Map of dominance: Why Iran can’t afford to give up Hormuz control | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera https://t.co/mRPM1RHq1k

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Iran imposes tolls as new Persian Gulf Strait Authority takes control | The Jerusalem Post https://t.co/mHH8WeTli5

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Iran imposes new rules for Hormuz in effort to cement control of key waterway | CNN https://t.co/tf2NCSXMKm