๐บ๐ธ๐ฎ๐ท America may be trying to step back from the Middle East just as Iran is finding new ways to pull it back in
Tehran is preparing thousands of civil defense units for a potential attack, anti-ship missiles are being fired around Hormuz, and Iran is nowhere near the economic collapse Trump has suggested.
Instead, Tehran will keep finding ways to increase the cost of American pressure.
That may already be happening through Yemen.
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline could take roughly 6 weeks to fully repair after attacks on its pumping infrastructure, while Saudi Aramco has reportedly told European refiners they will receive no Saudi crude in October.
And another American intervention against the Houthis could play directly into Iran's hands.
It could drain U.S. resources, create a new recruitment cause for Ansar Allah and potentially bog Washington down in another long Middle Eastern conflict.
Meanwhile, another confrontation is building across the Atlantic.
Britain is telling its population to prepare for severe disruption from a potential war, forces are reinforcing Gotland, Lithuania is preparing evacuation plans and NATO is planning around the possibility of major conflicts involving Russia and China at the same time.
Europe is badly overstating the Russian threat. And fear itself can become dangerous.
If European governments increasingly prepare for a Russian attack that Moscow isn't planning, he argues they could eventually create the confrontation they're trying to prevent.
So Washington now faces two very different versions of the same problem.
In the Middle East, Iran may be trying to make American disengagement too costly.
In Europe, America's allies may be trying to make disengagement too dangerous.
Trump wants the United States to carry less of the world's security burden.
The rest of the world isn't exactly cooperating.
@WeTheBrandon
@HumansNoContext Why must we assume he could only acquire one or the other. Rather he chose the key or the bread first the outcome would be the same under the right circumstances.
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