CPO scale out earlier than expected:
> Foxconn: est. units register upward and optical switches shipped early to $NVDA
CPO scale up timelines from $LITE Mizuho Technology Conference today:
“The company expects to start shipping Scale-Up optical products in the second half of 2027, with formal volume ramp-up in 2028”
SVP $NVDA networking: “We’re going to ramp up CPO second half of this year”. No delay indications.
I’m gonna go ahead and trust industry projections. Where they all reiterate faster timelines for scale out CPO H2 onward. And scale up CPO H2 2027 onward (with main growth happening 2028)
Over a questionable motive analyst firm that said $MU had no share of HBM4 Rubin (causing a selloff)
Where micron went out shortly later to into enter mass production. (Triple digit return shortly after)
I think people going long on temporary bridge architectures from this incorrect report won’t be too happy.
Appreciate the buying opportunity though.
A massive catalyst arrived today with $SIVE:
Sivers announced $8.2M volume orders starting for Space applications (allspace).
This is for Beamforming ICs powering Space LEO/multi-orbit satellite communication.
The bigger implication is not the contract size:
But that Sivers now powers a larger defense prime in $YSS following their allspace acquisition (similar to $MRVL design-in with Celestial).
Which typically leads to more follow-up orders + volume contracts for Sivers, rather than just this specific contract.
Turns out Sivers is also a Space/Defense supply chain chokepoint (ahead of SpaceX IPO) on top of their photonics AI DC sector lasers...
This win aside, I'm expecting more volume ramps to be coming soon as well from their photonics side (looking at you Jabil + other pluggable makers)
$SIVE is my favorite CPO / photonics stock after AAOI.
Partly because it's Swedish and you have entertainment from comedians over there.
Today a new non-technical hedge fund called Protean Funds (likely shorting), went on air.
To said $SIVE CPO applications are imaginary.
Right after $GFS just made $SIVE their reference laser.
(Just for some context to newer readers: Lot of people in Sweden can only look at past 12 month revenue, and don't understand concepts of forward growth)
Also because they don't understand that no CPO application has scaled up yet at all.
So Swedish hedge funds keep going short (with many of their hedge funds like Colosseum / Origo heavily underwater).
But... for the technical readers... from H2 2026 to 2028, it goes from near $0 to $91B TAM in 1 1/2 years. (we're entering H2 now).
Overall TAM hits $141B (which is also 10x+ or so in 1 1/2 years)... and $SIVE has scaled into pluggable market with $JBL + other unnamed pluggable players with that too.
Probably not going to end well for the local Swedish firms, shorting right before the largest inflection points ever hits for $SIVE.
Just a matter of time before volume ramps.
$LITE rode the first optical wave from $3B to $75B in 2 years time with EML and pluggables.
My thesis is $SIVE can do the same from $3B, with CPO/Pluggables and CW.
Sivers + GFS SiPH reference laser news, alongside the +54% increase today.
Is just one step of the way.
DID YOU LISTEN ANON?
Reuters: New Sivers x GFS strategic collaboration.
$SIVE has now announced its lasers will be integrated into reference designs built on Globalfoundries Silicon Photonics Platform.
For pluggable optical transcivers, CPO, and SiPH.
This is fundamentally the most groundbreaking news for Sivers in history.
As Broadcom, Nvidia, Marvell, AMD, and anyone who goes through GFS silicon photonics has Sivers embedded as a default laser route.
I personally think this news alone should easily 2x or 3x Sivers market cap over the medium term, given how fundamental this is to their revenue.
To have Sivers be the standard laser route for the many hyperscalers that use the world's leading photonics foundry.