Funny how the retail trader crowd + MSM Financial channels used to push the "FAANG" narrative...then it became #FAANGMAN...then "Mag 7"
Those not-so-subtle shifts say a lot. What happened to just FAANG - and FAANGMAN?
#Survivorshipbias#behavioralfinance#FAANG#Mag7
Você alavanca 10x achando que vai ficar rico mais rápido.
Matematicamente, está fazendo o oposto.
Em 1956, um engenheiro da Bell Labs chamado John Kelly Jr. resolveu um problema que ninguém tinha formalizado: qual é o tamanho ÓTIMO de uma aposta?
A resposta mudou cassinos, hedge funds e mercados de previsão. 🧵
Corrections come and go, and if all we get is a 10-15% drawdown while the fundamentals remain robust, then it will just be a simple matter of rebalancing. Still, a balanced portfolio should have diversifiers, especially in word in which the tail risks on both sides are fat. Bonds have been the traditional diversifier and did that job well until the rate reset in 2022. Since that time, the correlation has started to fall again, and as the chart below shows, on a 52-week bass bonds are once again negatively correlated.
I will (bet against them) if Oil goes up and not down
Re: JPM & Goldman: a broken clock is right twice a day
Make enuff predictions...& eventually a couple will come to fruition ;-)
Meanwhile pull a salary...and not be held accountable for of the inaccurate predictions :-(
I can honestly (and happily) say that, as a professional commodities trader, "excitement" never enters the picture. "Calm" and "deliberate" much more accurately describe how I and much better traders that I've known historically have succeeded...
@EdwardOThorp
Btw, do you ever fully 'own' any of the three? Cars & homes require insurance, licensing & registration fees each year. (insurance for a home is not a requirement, I guess, but good luck..)
Also, I'd argue that unless you 'own' your home free & clear, you 'own' a mortgage on it.
When I have a new idea upon which I am doing R&D -- I automatically take it to the most difficult time period that I can find -- to try to fail it out of my strenuous stress-testing and R&D process.
Almost nothing makes it through.
Fed's balance sheet came down 24% from over $9 trillion...I just about spit up my tea just now. It still had over $6.5 trillion on the books this entire time (backing risk assets like S&P 500, housing, etc.). Take all fake backing away, & watch what happens... :-)
But there's still $6.6 trillion on the Fed's balance sheet, Charlie. Their balance sheet shrunk, but the point is that there was between $6.6 trillion + 24% more than that the entire time...that the SPX was advancing upward. Undo *all* of the buying of assets & see how SPX does.
The Fed's balance sheet has shrunk 24% over the past 3 years while the S&P 500 has advanced 90%, dispelling the myth that the stock market is dependent on QE to rise. $SPX
Video: https://t.co/YVvoCnRG2L