Red Rock Capital

Multi-award winning Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA). Exploiting capital flows in commodity futures using statistics & probabilities.

[Red Rock Capital @RedRockCapital]

Funny how the retail trader crowd + MSM Financial channels used to push the "FAANG" narrative...then it became #FAANGMAN...then "Mag 7"

Those not-so-subtle shifts say a lot. What happened to just FAANG - and FAANGMAN?

#Survivorshipbias #behavioralfinance #FAANG #Mag7

[Red Rock Capital @RedRockCapital]

It doesn't-

[Bruno @COMETcapital]

@jaykaeppel @sentimentrader wasn't aware that Bloomberg data existed that far back

[Red Rock Capital @RedRockCapital]

Credit where credit is due: @EdwardOThorp dubbed it the Kelly Criterion and pioneered its use in investing

#ConvertibleArbitrage #StatisticalArbitrage #StatArb

[Papo Econômico @opapoeconomico]

Você alavanca 10x achando que vai ficar rico mais rápido.

Matematicamente, está fazendo o oposto.

Em 1956, um engenheiro da Bell Labs chamado John Kelly Jr. resolveu um problema que ninguém tinha formalizado: qual é o tamanho ÓTIMO de uma aposta?

A resposta mudou cassinos, hedge funds e mercados de previsão. 🧵

[Red Rock Capital @RedRockCapital]

@kwongja Please unsubscribe me from all of your email spams...I've asked nicely previously.

[Red Rock Capital @RedRockCapital]

You should run the same analysis using the returns from our Commodity Long-Short Program :-)

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

Corrections come and go, and if all we get is a 10-15% drawdown while the fundamentals remain robust, then it will just be a simple matter of rebalancing. Still, a balanced portfolio should have diversifiers, especially in word in which the tail risks on both sides are fat. Bonds have been the traditional diversifier and did that job well until the rate reset in 2022. Since that time, the correlation has started to fall again, and as the chart below shows, on a 52-week bass bonds are once again negatively correlated.

[Red Rock Capital @RedRockCapital]

Except T-bills are not paying 5% - LMAO

[Red Rock Capital @RedRockCapital]

I will (bet against them) if Oil goes up and not down

Re: JPM & Goldman: a broken clock is right twice a day

Make enuff predictions...& eventually a couple will come to fruition ;-)

Meanwhile pull a salary...and not be held accountable for of the inaccurate predictions :-(

[Correlation Economics @GoldForecast]

Goldman Sachs $40 oil.
JP Morgan $30 oil.
Wanna bet against them? 🤔

[Thomas Rollinger @tomrollinger]

I can honestly (and happily) say that, as a professional commodities trader, "excitement" never enters the picture. "Calm" and "deliberate" much more accurately describe how I and much better traders that I've known historically have succeeded...

@EdwardOThorp

[Red Rock Capital @RedRockCapital]

Hopefully not someone's brother or brother-in-law

(think: Madoff reference...)

[Cassandra Unchained @michaeljburry]

One more. OpenAI is the linchpin here. Can anyone name their auditor?

[Red Rock Capital @RedRockCapital]

I thought Nvidia *was* the entire market

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

Nvidia and the entire market just went red…

God save us.

[Red Rock Capital @RedRockCapital]

Btw, do you ever fully 'own' any of the three? Cars & homes require insurance, licensing & registration fees each year. (insurance for a home is not a requirement, I guess, but good luck..)

Also, I'd argue that unless you 'own' your home free & clear, you 'own' a mortgage on it.

[Thomas Rollinger @tomrollinger]

I own a car,
I own a business

I'd say my 'wealth' is due to my freedom and health

[Red Rock Capital @RedRockCapital]

When I have a new idea upon which I am doing R&D -- I automatically take it to the most difficult time period that I can find -- to try to fail it out of my strenuous stress-testing and R&D process.

Almost nothing makes it through.

[Red Rock Capital @RedRockCapital]

This is awesome

[Red Rock Capital @RedRockCapital]

Here you go @charliebilello

[Thomas Rollinger @tomrollinger]

Fed's balance sheet came down 24% from over $9 trillion...I just about spit up my tea just now. It still had over $6.5 trillion on the books this entire time (backing risk assets like S&P 500, housing, etc.). Take all fake backing away, & watch what happens... :-)

[Red Rock Capital @RedRockCapital]

But there's still $6.6 trillion on the Fed's balance sheet, Charlie. Their balance sheet shrunk, but the point is that there was between $6.6 trillion + 24% more than that the entire time...that the SPX was advancing upward. Undo *all* of the buying of assets & see how SPX does.

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

The Fed's balance sheet has shrunk 24% over the past 3 years while the S&P 500 has advanced 90%, dispelling the myth that the stock market is dependent on QE to rise. $SPX

Video: https://t.co/YVvoCnRG2L

[Thomas Rollinger @tomrollinger]

Wendy's is down -47.61% YTD

[Thomas Rollinger @tomrollinger]

Here are some "Consumer Staple" stocks that are struggling mightily YTD

[Thomas Rollinger @tomrollinger]

Also add: vacancy rates / periods

[Red Rock Capital @RedRockCapital]

Here's another: Salinas, CA

"The cities where condo prices are now below their housing bubble peaks 20 years ago..." (or close)

[Red Rock Capital @RedRockCapital]

"The cities where condo prices are now below their housing bubble peaks 20 years ago..." (or close)