JJC

'Monitoring' the international situation.
LLB Durham, MSc International Security @ Birkbeck. Ex-Met. 🇬🇧🏳️‍🌈

[JJC @RedSherbet1]

Ukraine's "largest ever" strike on Moscow hit on the final day of Russia's first wartime election.

Casualty and interception figures are official claims from both sides.

Moscow's mayor says 450 drones were stopped en route to the city, a major refinery was hit, and Russia has vowed to intensify strikes on Kyiv.

The target set is primarily economic, not symbolic (Ukraine's main focus recently). Expect more strikes and harsher political statements. A strike like this doesn't by itself change Russia's force posture.

Key indicators:

1. Mobilisation: any announcement after the vote, partial or general.

2. The Narva curfew: an extension past 26 September, or a wider zone.

3. Estonia's response: border closures or a change in guard posture.

4. Force movements beyond the 5 km strip, or NATO redeployments.

5. New Duma measures on conscription or leaving the country.

Estonian analysts (via ERR) think short-term mobilisation is unlikely. If none of these appear by early October, I think it's most likely exit control and signalling, not invasion prep.

[Financial Times @FT]

Ukraine hits Moscow with ‘largest ever’ drone attack https://t.co/MI3bdq195S

[JJC @RedSherbet1]

Mariah Carey having completed her masterpiece 'The Last Supper'
Circa 1498

[JJC @RedSherbet1]

👀👀👀

[electionmapsuk @electionmapsuk]

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 30% (+2)
RFM: 25% (+1)
CON: 17% (=)
GRN: 11% (+1)
LDM: 9% (-1)
SNP: 2% (-1)

Via @OpiniumResearch, 30 Sep - 2 Oct.
Changes w/ 23-25 Sep.

[JJC @RedSherbet1]

“Race” would be the incorrect word, but then again, so is ‘nationality’. English is an ethnicity: yes, a people formed from Britons, Angles, Saxons, Danes, and Normans. The nationality is British. Being a blend of these doesn't make it any less valid. Every ethnic group is a blend; this is how they form.

[Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound]

I’ll be honest, it never once occurred to me that ‘English’ was a race rather than a nationality.

The English are a mongrel race of Normans, Germanic tribes and Anglo Saxons who themselves were a melting pot of old English, Danes etc

[JJC @RedSherbet1]

@Nigella_Lawson is the only person I have notifications for btw x

[JJC @RedSherbet1]

Preemptive damage control.

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 NEW: Zack Polanski says he won’t resign as Green Party leader if he loses in Holborn and St Pancras

“It doesn’t depend on it whatsoever… I think it’s probably 50-50 right now”

[@guardian]

[JJC @RedSherbet1]

@tomhfh @RhonddaBryant @grok “Primary school level” is a bold description of a tweet that you’ve relied upon Grok to regularly help interpret it for others. "Mid-Atlantic" can mean a place, a posture or an alliance, and you never said which. If the clarity is that basic, supply it. Don't blame the readers.

[JJC @RedSherbet1]

@jakonian I was thinking more like Hillary Clinton

[JJC @RedSherbet1]

From POLITICO 🚨:
The Pentagon has left the UK, France, and the Baltic states out of a meeting on the future of NATO, in Poland.

Though, Britain, France and the Baltics are among the ones doing the deterring.

It's a US-run subgroup (not the full alliance), and one of the countries left out says it doesn't know how the attendance list was selected. If it's about who agrees with Washington rather than who pulls their weight in the alliance, that's how you end up with a two-tier alliance (something Trump has hinted at before with Art. 5, for countries not meeting the NATO target).

A tad awkward for the Baltics, provided they're the ones next door to Russia.

[Faytuks Network @FaytuksNetwork]

The Pentagon has excluded several major NATO allies, including the UK, France, and the Baltic states, from a Poland meeting on NATO's future led by policy chief Elbridge Colby, according to POLITICO.

[Faytuks Network @FaytuksNetwork]

The Pentagon has excluded several major NATO allies, including the UK, France, and the Baltic states, from a Poland meeting on NATO's future led by policy chief Elbridge Colby, according to POLITICO.

[JJC @RedSherbet1]

Oh…

[JJC @RedSherbet1]

That's an argument against closed lists, not PR.

STV allows voters to remove individual politicians and AMS keeps constituency MPs. Labour hasn't picked a system: a commission would recommend.

On accountability: Labour won 63% of seats on 34% of the vote in 2024. Reform got 5 seats on 14%.

[Simon Clarke @SirSimonClarke]

If you move to PR and a form of list system, you lose the ability to get rid of politicians at the ballot box.

You also effectively end the role of the constituency MP…

And you also get nearly permanent coalition governments, whereby politicians cut deals to decide who governs without the public having a say.

[JJC @RedSherbet1]

Estonia says Russian intelligence ordered the arson attack on Milrem Robotics, which makes unmanned ground vehicles for Ukraine. Kremlin denies it, and the evidence isn't public.

The interesting MO is what is key: hired proxies, deniable, kept below the NATO trigger line. Expect more like this from Russia!

[MoD Estonia @MoD_Estonia]

It has been confirmed that the arson attack on an Estonian defence company was ordered by russia.

russia’s acts of sabotage across Europe are intended to undermine support for Ukraine and fuel fears of escalation. They demonstrate russia's desperation.

Our response is precisely the opposite of what russia seeks to achieve: more pressure on russia, stronger support for Ukraine.

russia will not intimidate us or alter our policy.

[JJC @RedSherbet1]

Ukraine says Russia lost 2,090 soldiers, killed or wounded, in a single day: the highest of the war. (NB: Kyiv is the source, so treat with caution.)

The bigger point: numbers have stayed high since summer. Russia is accepting heavy losses around Dobropillia for small gains.

Heavy losses don't mean Russia is losing but do show what they're willing to pay.

[Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 @DefenceHQ]

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 29 September 2026.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: Defence Intelligence – communicating probability - https://t.co/VTpkqPiqn6

#StandWithUkraine

[JJC @RedSherbet1]

Why so many Lib Dems in my FYP?

Ahhh – they heard about electoral reform 😏

[JJC @RedSherbet1]

@Katie_Lam_MP “Rigging” is scrapping the supplementary vote for mayors in 2022 to help your party win under FPTP. Proposing a commission and putting reform to voters in a manifesto is the opposite.

Who is rigging?

Do better.

[JJC @RedSherbet1]

"No local MP" is simply incorrect. PR is a family of systems, and the ones used in Scotland (AMS) and Northern Ireland (STV) both give voters local representation. FPTP leads to millions of votes essentially electing no one and safe seats rarely change hands. Which system is unaccountable?

What are you on about?

[JJC @RedSherbet1]

We literally know no substantial details about this.

Let the police do their job alongside with the CPS.

[GB Politics @GBPolitcs]

🚨POLL: Should the men arrested over the suspected RAF Fairford terror plot have been released on bail?

[JJC @RedSherbet1]

“Lowest in the G7” is a poor defence of the triple lock.

The UK is younger than Germany or Italy, and has greater provision of private pensions.

Protect pensioners from rising prices, but one freak year of wage growth shouldn't permanently raise the bill, and the 2.5% minimum is arbitrary.

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 UPDATE: The boss of Labour's biggest union donor says scrapping the state pension triple lock would be "electoral suicide"

"We’re the lowest in the G7 in terms of how much we spend on pensions... I cannot understand why we keep going back to pensioners"

[JJC @RedSherbet1]

👍 Not every form of hosting is equal. Refuelling or transit support is a lighter breach that usually doesn't tip into belligerency on its own. Knowingly basing an actual strike aircraft for a specific attack, such as the German bomber example, is a greater one and certainly closer to crossing the said line. That's the main distinction: degree of enablement.

[JJC @RedSherbet1]

Hmm that would suggest it’s merely semantics when it isn’t. On the surface it may seem that way, but combatant status legally changes what’s legally targetable and triggers different treaty obligations (Hague Convention V of 1907, still the basis for the law of neutrality). This is why Spain refused base access.