I interviewed @bubbleboi about his ratings of AI supply chain bottlenecks.
We talked about DRAM, advanced packaging, CPO, HBF, PCBs, power delivery, etc.
0:00 HBM, DRAM, the cartel
7:24 Silicon photonics, CPO, Lumentum lasers
11:35 Advanced packaging: TSMC vs Intel
13:49 HBF: Sandisk/SK monopoly window
17:02 Memory accelerators + TurboQuant
22:35 PCBs + Unitika
27:27 Power: transition from 48V to 800V
31:32 Outsourced assembly + test, fiber coupling
36:23 HBM vs DRAM vs NAND in 2-3 years
42:03 Where will hardware founders come from?
44:10 Alt accelerators: Etched, Taalas, MatX
48:43 Emerging tech: CPO bearishness
49:23 Hyperclouds
49:53 HBF timeline + CXL
51:48 Voltage + cooling wall
56:30 Rapid fire: Intel, Nvidia, TSMC, Alphabet
1:05:25 ASML, Hynix, Lumentum, Wolfspeed
1:13:25 Building conviction in Intel
1:19:37 Pitching Intel to funds
1:22:39 X accounts, analysts + why care about any of this
Six essays working through Aschenbrenner's "Situational Awareness" from an investor's standpoint: the compute arithmetic, the power bottleneck, the geopolitics and government-takeover question, and
the alignment risk the framework cannot price.
https://t.co/BcTpIhwDzY