Tom's 12% feels high. I'm closer to @adcv_ and @TradingAlpinist in the ~8% range, some spread over SOFR plus a basic expected loss premium
But most of the discussion ignores the demand side
DeFi yield today is largely driven by looping:
ETH leverage, vol trades (Ethena), staking carry.
Strip that demand out, ratchet up the rates, and credit demand disappears, bye to APY for depositors
The core issue is what is structurally supporting the lender yield
DeFi needs yield diversification to sustain a risk-adjusted premium
That's where RWAs come in:
Treasuries: ~3–4%
AAA credit: ~5%
Private credit: ~8–12%
But lending to the safest tokenized RWAs won't consistently clear that 8% hurdle on their own.
Looping isn't going away. It's too structurally important
The rise of tranching also brings new options for r/r
imo both have a place going forward