Reid Callahan

Long term investor, trader that’s it

[Reid Callahan @Reidaround]

@PraiseKek

[Reid Callahan @Reidaround]

Warsh cuts. He’ll quote Iran winding down, AI productivity gains and maybe the tapped out consumer. 25bp.

Trump didn’t spend 18 months bashing Powell over no cuts to let Warsh sit on his hands for the rest of the year and hike toward the end like the market is pricing.

It’ll be so obvious after the fact. Peter Schiff will be having convulsions over it for the next month as gold pops.

[Reid Callahan @Reidaround]

@SCapStrategist Haha rate cut locked in😉

[Reid Callahan @Reidaround]

@0xcoked Trump will BS, say they caused 500bil in damage so giving them the money isn’t bad🤷‍♂️

[Reid Callahan @Reidaround]

@Sorenthek I noticed that. Do these guys not want it above 100🤔

[Reid Callahan @Reidaround]

Personally I think Warsh cuts next week and I know it’s 97% no cut but Powell always gave the market what it wanted.

The odds were reinforced by the Powell premium and I think we might be about to get the Warsh discount.

But that aside Trump heckling the shit out of Powell endlessly to cut and now with Warsh at the helm, he sits on his hands to the end of the year and possibly hikes like the market is forecasting.

Somehow I don’t see it, I’ll gladly eat my words if he turns out to be Volcker👇

[The Macro Pulse @TheMacroPulse]

The gold and silver sell-off is absurd. The market is pricing Warsh like he’s the next Volcker. He isn’t. Trump didn’t install his own Fed pick through the most partisan chair vote in history so he could nuke markets before the midterms. Warsh is not Volcker.

[Reid Callahan @Reidaround]

Warsh gives us a cut next week that could be the catalyst.

I know there’s a 97% chance of no cut but that was under Powell and Fed pricing was Powells guide ie he gave the market what was priced usually.

Warsh will probably be different, we have Powell fed pricing for Warsh currently.

They’re clearly on the war and global conquest path and looking for cheaper money now in the hopes resource dominance secure them lower rates later.

[Reid Callahan @Reidaround]

@zerohedge 1hr later “they’re gonna make a deal”.

[Reid Callahan @Reidaround]

@Geiger_Capital Warsh will cut probably get a spike in the long end. Trump will find a way to weasel out of Iran. Inflation will probably come down afterwards so to yields. Then everything will crash🤷‍♂️

[Reid Callahan @Reidaround]

The precious metal bulls calling for 7k gold and 200 silver, or whatever crazy targets have this in front of them.

The channel this month opened in is one of the biggest structures on the GSR. If we close above it a retest of 50 for silver is pretty much locked in and probably 3500 for gold and it could easily go lower than that.

62ish looks like the level.

Personally, I’d like to see it breakdown coz you’ll see some crazy rallies.

Whatever happens we’re at a significant turning point in the market. A big move is loading ⬆️ ⬇️

[Reid Callahan @Reidaround]

Yeah, if there’s a final pump into a top that monthly candle has a lot of work to do.

[Graddhy - Commodities TA+Cycles @graddhybpc]

The red slingshot parabolic move for gold held for several years.
But now, it has broken down, and the pattern is now negated.
Pity on such a good looking chart, but eventually at some point, all patterns fail. #joinus

[Reid Callahan @Reidaround]

@Larryjamieson_ Totally, completely normal.

You’ve clearly never negotiated a peace deal😂😉

[Reid Callahan @Reidaround]

@GavMcCracken Trump just gave them 3 billion yesterday to fix it🫠

[Reid Callahan @Reidaround]

I keep thinking about this one @HFI_Research posted highlighting the way Trumps truth social posts have purged speculators from oil markets.

These folk won’t keep betting on higher prices if they’re constantly taking heavy losses, instead they’ll trade elsewhere out of frustration.

Or…they’ll wait on the sidelines for a price level that seems totally nonsensical given the backdrop before loading up on longs.

Assume we’re being fed slop on Iran ie there’s progress towards resolution behind the scenes despite the grim outlook on your devices.

@Dioclet54046121 points it out, there’s no way the normies have the full scoop and if there is a deal, no doubt when it’s dropped it will be timed to benefit markets.

Will Trump compromise for a deal in ways no one expected at the exact moment oil traders are max long? Tanking prices heavily.

Is Hormuz gonna suddenly open? Will we see oil 40-50? Will the US admin take that opportunity to start refilling the SPR? It would make a lot of sense if they did, it’s got Trump written all over it.

[The Old Pretender @Dioclet54046121]

Contrarian position: I suspect the US and Iran have already made a deal, but part of the deal is that it will not be released until the time agreed in the deal. Everything we see now is just theatre.

[Reid Callahan @Reidaround]

Only Donnie can save the market now🦸‍♂️

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

Trump is distancing himself from the new escalation btw Iran and Israel

But a post is not enough

US supplies Israel with everything that just hit Iran

Only material containment of Israel can save what's left of the "ceasefire"

Red sea oil -- and far higher oil prices -- now in the balance

[Reid Callahan @Reidaround]

A deal to end the war was close and Israel knew it.

That’s why they struck Beirut yesterday, bait Iran with their redline to justify strikes against them and to receive strikes back.

Then hope the US re-engages - and just like that we’re back to full scale war.

Iran probably made the calculation that opening the SOH and making concessions otherwise was pointless if there wasn’t going to be region wide peace and stability at least medium term.

What happens next is all about the US admins next move.

Ball is in Trumps court🥎

[Najam Ali @najam_ali]

Trump has no other choice. Deal is the only option. Netanyahu making a last attempt to stop the deal. Won’t succeed.

[Reid Callahan @Reidaround]

@rickjeff78 It’s wild to think how much benefit of the doubt markets have given Trump. When they probably wouldn’t have if it were any other president. Trumps really got to deliver on this otherwise it’s gonna get ugly.

[Reid Callahan @Reidaround]

If you don’t see any retaliation from Iran it could mean the US is cutting deals with them behind the scenes and will promise to reel in Israel later in exchange.

Or that Iran doesn’t want to risk being bombed again😂

[Conflict Radar @Conflict_Radar]

Will Iran respond to Israel's attack on Beirut?

[Reid Callahan @Reidaround]

@SilverSurfer_23 US gives GCC Irans frozen funds, GCC backdoors it to Iran for rebuilding and the strait miraculously opens the next day😮

Trump sells the US public Iranian surrender.

It sounds crazy which is why it’s probably gonna happen.

[Reid Callahan @Reidaround]

You gotta hope someone in the Trump admin is forward looking, ie knows that a price spike in oil is coming and Jawboning the market lower won’t work forever.

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

😮‍💨