Respect Gwenzi

Investments Analyst- MD Equity Axis. Interested in business, finance, economics & 🎾

[EQUITY AXIS @EquityAxis]

CAFCA aims for SADC Eastern Flank dominance, from Mozambique to Malawi.
CEO Nyakudya sits down with Equity Axis to discuss financial performance
https://t.co/9AjVprZW9x

[Respect Gwenzi @RespectGwenzi]

In the lead article for this week's issue i wrote about what financial results from leading banks in SA, West & East Africa instruct on the direction of banking. As 🇿🇼 banks enter earnings season, ite key to watch how these strategies compare

[EQUITY AXIS @EquityAxis]

This week's issue of The Axis Top story :
The New Banking Divide, Technology Reshapes Africa’s Financial Hierarchy
*️⃣Unpacking Zimbabwe’s National AI Strategy
*️⃣Invictus Faces Funding Reality
*️⃣Illicit Cigarettes Redefine Market Dynamics
*️⃣ZSE Venture Board Links Minerals to Capital

[EQUITY AXIS @EquityAxis]

Business News Highlights 16.03.26
*️⃣Zimbabwe Bans Key Imports, Orders Local Sourcing
*️⃣Government Orders ZiG-Only Payments for All Procurement
*️⃣BAT Zambia Grows Profit but Market Shrinks
*️⃣MTN Group Swings to USD2.81 Billion Profit From a Loss
*️⃣Oil Hits Peak as US Bombs Kharg Island, Iran Shuts Strait of Hormuz

[EQUITY AXIS @EquityAxis]

Why is #Zimbabwe’s #fuel consistently more expensive than that of its regional peers? Listen to the breakdown of the factors, from the heavy burden of domestic levies to the impact of #global shipping chaos.

[Respect Gwenzi @RespectGwenzi]

The Missing Gold Factor (War Crisis)

The US-Iran war shock transmits directly into margins, FX inflows, and macro liquidity via 🇿🇼's Gold exports receipts.The impact is more severe than through fuel import cost & prices which has been the focus of most commentaries. CHART:EA

[Equity Live @EquityLive]

Highlights 02.03.26
*️⃣ #Mineral Export Ban Threatens US$ 1Bn #revenue Hit
*️⃣ @ZSE_ZW Halts Trading @OKZimbabwe Shares
*️⃣ #Maize #Imports Ease Slightly to US$30 Mn
*️⃣ #Tobacco Season Opens, Record Output Projected
*️⃣ #OilPrices Rise Most in 4 Years

[Respect Gwenzi @RespectGwenzi]

This is our best edition since we started this almost 5 yrs ago. It is a must read if you are in the interested in the rise of critical minerals, gold and African economics. This one focussed on copper

[EQUITY AXIS @EquityAxis]

This week's issue of The Axis Top story :
Capital Dodges Africa Flocks the Americas
*️⃣Caledonia's Biggest Bet in a Quarter Century
*️⃣Zimbabwe's Smart AI Future
*️⃣Beijing's Global Trade Ascendancy
*️⃣Tongaat's Fall: Cross-Border Chaos

[Respect Gwenzi @RespectGwenzi]

In an election year lowering interest rates has a positive impact in swaying votes especially after yrs of tightening.
However it has to be fundamentally anchored to be sustained. Zambia is exploiting the Copper rally & the outlook is positive

[EQUITY AXIS @EquityAxis]

The Bank of Zambia has cut the benchmark interest rate by a larger than expected cut of 75 basis points from 14.25% to 13.5%, a 2nd cut in 4 months. The cut follows a downward trend in inflation and strengthening fundamentals.

The country however carries a risk if drought hits & the commodities cycle tilts

[Respect Gwenzi @RespectGwenzi]

A worthy read

[#ThePeoplesChampion👊🏾🤝✊🏾 @acielumumba]

https://t.co/jcHU9TL7MS

[Respect Gwenzi @RespectGwenzi]

@ZtaUpdates @BarbaraRwodzi When can we expect Zimbabwe numbers? The tourism sector, pundits and investors plan against these pertinent numbers. A smaller country than SA with under 1.5m annual intl visitors should take less time to compile such data. cc @JojMan1 Consistency*

[EQUITY AXIS @EquityAxis]

South Africa’s tourism is officially back.
International arrivals reached 10.5m in 2025, returning to historical highs and edging past pre-COVID levels.
Cape Town led the recovery, recording a record 11.1m air passengers, including 3.3m international travellers, up 7% YoY. ✈️
Tourism is once again a key FX and services-sector growth engine. #statssa @ZtaUpdates

[Respect Gwenzi @RespectGwenzi]

The performance contrasts that of Zimplats. Both are owned by @Implats SA. The 2 are the top most PGM producers in Zim with peak collective annual income of nearly $2b.

[EQUITY AXIS @EquityAxis]

PGM prices are surging but #mimosa 's production is slipping.
*️⃣A 5% H1 FY’26 #output decline exposes deeper #execution #risks as power constraints, #ore quality and a deferred North Hill project widen the gap with @zimplats .
Read Full Story 👇
https://t.co/IQN1l5tAlE

[Respect Gwenzi @RespectGwenzi]

Well done Kudzie and the ZTN team

[kudzanai @kudzie_sharara]

https://t.co/oRevKv8xNt

[Respect Gwenzi @RespectGwenzi]

Effective Central banking

[SA Reserve Bank @SAReserveBank]

The MPC keeps the repurchase rate unchanged at 6.75%
#SARBMPCJan26 #InterestRates

[Respect Gwenzi @RespectGwenzi]

1 underexplored dynamic is the impact of LS Royalty adj by 🇿🇼 gvt from 5% to 10% effective now. This undercuts profitability and will require prices to rise above 5300/o maintain margins. LS miners are disintegrating creating numerous SC mines to evade royalty & taxes. Arbitrage*

[EQUITY AXIS @EquityAxis]

Gold at US$5,000: Windfall or Stress Test for Zimbabwe’s Mining Model?

"Price-driven optimism masks important structural realities. Zimbabwe’s gold sector remains heavily skewed toward artisanal and small-scale miners (ASM), whose contribution is now nearly 80% from 50% a decade ago.

While this segment has proven resilient and responsive to price incentives, it also raises concerns around sustainability, environmental degradation, safety standards, and revenue leakages.

The case for riverbed rehabilitation following environmentally damaging mining practices is a point in question.

High prices intensify these risks by encouraging rapid, often uncontrolled extraction, particularly in riverbeds and ecologically sensitive areas."
👇
https://t.co/zlZjcyHo5t

[Respect Gwenzi @RespectGwenzi]

Think Tanks typically work to influence public policy & debate (gvt is target client). Consultancies in Research work to help Org profitabilty & efficiency (pvt sector target). Once you work for 1, you are conflicted on the other & credibility is lost.

[PROFESSOR GIFT MUGANO (Ph.D) @gift_mugano]

@AEDS_ZW confirms that the current economic stability is sustainable into the future.

All indicators shows that durable stability is possible & we are on course to achieve it.

⁦@melodymbira⁩ ⁦@ReserveBankZIM⁩

[Respect Gwenzi @RespectGwenzi]

@ChiraeraeA Thats clear. Stakes are high, bankability is key. 2025 power situation was drastic. The firepower of record Copper production & earnings was significantly undercut by energy shortages. It requires more than rhetoric to reemerge

[Respect Gwenzi @RespectGwenzi]

The conundrum as @baba_nyenyedzi tries to decipher is around reading GDP from Per Capita basis. As in SA, Zim gap is widening between classes. For 🇿🇼 the fraction of rich by number is even very smaller. The diff is,🇿🇼 GDP informally driven suddenly jumped, making it dif to verify

[EQUITY AXIS @EquityAxis]

Global GDP per capita is 10% above pre-COVID.
Africa isn’t.
The gap with advanced economies has widened ~10% since 2019—growth without jobs, capital without productivity. That’s not a cycle. It’s a regime shift.
#GlobalEconomy #AfricaMarkets #CapitalAllocation #Macro

[Respect Gwenzi @RespectGwenzi]

A majority of illicit cigarettes traded in SA are domestically manufactured. The trend has reversed from 2010 when illicit cigars were largely smuggled from 🇿🇼. Just as in Zim, SA goods which evade duties have killed formal retail. BAT 🇿🇼 is market leader, (75%) mkt share.

[𝑲𝒖𝒅𝒛𝒂𝒊 𝑴𝒖𝒕𝒊𝒔𝒊 @KMutisi]

A month ago, Zimbabwe commissioned the LARGEST tobacco processing plant in Africa.

Zimbabwe is, BY FAR, the largest producer of tobacco in Africa… 4th in the world.

More than 75% of cigarettes smoked in South Africa are made in Zimbabwe. They are high quality & cheap. They were banned to protect BAT & other producers but the ban made it worse.

[Respect Gwenzi @RespectGwenzi]

Of 🇿🇼's 36.7 tonnes delivered in 2025, this company 👇 through its Blanket Mine contributed about 6%. Blanket is the 2nd biggest gold mine in Zim.

Caledonia is set to ramp production to 3 fold once Bilboes comes on board in 2029 to become the biggest miner in 🇿🇼

[EQUITY AXIS @EquityAxis]

1/2 Caledonia Mining's 2025 income to swell past a quarter billion US dollars

Produced 76200 ounces (2.12t).

Set to spend US$500m to develop another 1 of its mine.

To become a billion dollar co' once Bilboes mine starts production at 200,000 ounces pa.

Full Read 👇

[Respect Gwenzi @RespectGwenzi]

The remarkable production is stimulated by artisans & small scale miners, a strong price rally & artisans friendly policies. However the model is replete with huge fiscal losses.

[EQUITY AXIS @EquityAxis]

United Arab Emirates (UAE) is now Zimbabwe's top export destination accounting for about 40% of total exports in 2025. In Nov-25, 44% of 🇿🇼 exports were destined for UAE. Over 90% of gold exports for 2025 went to UAE. Gold reached an ATH of 46.7 tonnes in 2025. @zimstat