Retail Bear

Limit the number of retail bagholders. Not financial advice.

[Retail Bear @RetailBear]

WARNING: The US Stock Market ($GSPC $SPX $SPY) is approaching the most expensive it has ever been relative to its trailing 10-year earnings. The only other period it was more expensive was months leading up to the burst of the dot-com bubble.

[Retail Bear @RetailBear]

@Monkeys15142745 @AmitRay42840050 @ZaidJilani A Democrat hasn’t won a Senate seat in Texas in over 30 years you absolute moron. And Talarico has a good chance.

[Retail Bear @RetailBear]

Nice dose of karma today for @vercel! 😂😂

[Guillermo Rauch @rauchg]

🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇦🇷

Enjoyed my discussion with PM Netanyahu on how AI education and literacy will keep our free societies ahead.

We spoke about AI empowering everyone to build software and the importance of ensuring it serves quality and progress.

Optimistic for peace, safety, and greatness for Israel and its neighbors.

[Retail Bear @RetailBear]

Congrats to those who use the software of genocidal founders!! 😂😂

[Vercel @vercel]

We’ve identified a security incident that involved unauthorized access to certain internal Vercel systems, impacting a limited subset of customers. Please see our security bulletin:
https://t.co/0S939n3qHC

[Retail Bear @RetailBear]

@briebriejoy You deserve every bit of vindication for this. I remember @KonstantinKisin in particular attacking you for this coupled with his racist smears. But then again that guy and his special needs cohost are wrong about literally everything.

[Retail Bear @RetailBear]

@dagnytaggart009 @MartinShkreli “US union density peaked in 1945 at 34.2% and has since experienced a long-term decline, reaching approximately 10.0% by 2025. While membership was 20.1% in 1983, the shift has been driven by private-sector losses, leaving current rates at historic lows.” #MAGA

[Retail Bear @RetailBear]

I love when people display their retardation while calling others retarded. Props to @MartinShkreli for leaving this embarrassing tweet up though.

[Martin Shkreli @MartinShkreli]

Palantir very plainly paid $23m in income tax and $156m in payroll tax. That's 0/2. Are you retarded?

[Retail Bear @RetailBear]

I truly can’t fathom how stupid someone has to be to not invest in $CRCL at $50, but invest now at $100 immediately after such awful pair of news for the business.

[Kyle @zeroxkyle]

Loaded up the truck on CRCL today. Wrote the pitch at $70, saw it go to $50, didn't enter & watched it rip to $130 without me and now a knee jerk reaction from the market to dump it to $100 for a god given entry

CRCL is one of those stocks with a pretty strong adverse reaction. Lots of bears with very valid points:
- Tether IPO
- Losing $ to CB distribution
- CRCL team don't execute like HOOD / has negative optics similar to CB

But IMO that just means more room to grow if those levers get changed - it's adversely priced for failure right now, which makes the wall of worry that much steeper to climb. The bull case is real
- This bill has ST pain for USDC (Assumed TVL loss due to farmers) but has LT stronger outcome
- Second order effect = Can re-negotiate CB distribution ++ gives leverage to CRCL for the negotiations
- Stablecoins as still the best thesis (Even Druckenmiller is bullish stablecoins) ; CRCL remains the only pure play

IMO CRCL boils down to 2 levers at this point in time - USDC Growth Rate and % Cut to Coinbase; modelling that out (Claude is pretty insane) you get to build a pretty good bear / base / bull scenario.

At the most bearish scenario you basically had CRCL trading at mid ~50s (30x multiple) which basically means the market was pricing in the worst case scenario for CRCL

Anyways, all in all I think it's worth a punt

[Retail Bear @RetailBear]

Wow she inside trades and still produces such horrendous returns? $crcl

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

🩸CRASH:

Cathie Wood sold $5.9 million worth of $CRCL 4 days before it crashed 16%.

Crash is caused by a leaked bill, that would ban platforms from giving yield to Stablecoin holders.

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

$CRCL falls ~15% after the CLARITY Act deal signals no yield on stablecoin balances by allowing only activity-based rewards.

That weakens a key part of the bull case by making USDC harder to evolve from a payments utility into a real store-of-value product.

[Retail Bear @RetailBear]

Terrible news for $CRCL 😂

[Leo Lanza | Lanza.eth @leolanza]

🚨 BREAKING: CLARITY Act deal: no yield on stablecoin balances, only activity-based rewards

[Retail Bear @RetailBear]

@JamesStoverAnth @matthewstoller The backstop alone is enough to support the currency, even if marginally used. The same way FDIC insurance can prevent runs on banks. And I didn’t say it stopped their inflation. You asked “how external funding could slow inflation”.

[Retail Bear @RetailBear]

@JamesStoverAnth @matthewstoller Are you stupid? The US didn’t just airdrop a bunch of pesos in an isolated Argentinian economy. To an extent they did the opposite by buying pesos with US dollars. The US stabilized the peso, allowing Argentina to import things cheaply — reducing inflation (among other benefits).

[Retail Bear @RetailBear]

@JamesStoverAnth @matthewstoller If your currency is stronger then imports are cheaper

[Retail Bear @RetailBear]

$ACHR paying for X Ads to show off some wiring?! Scam company.

[Archer @flyarcher]

A peek into Midnight's wing integration process:

During manufacturing, each Midnight wing is inspected and assembled with subsystem parts before integration with the fuselage. The process of installation and validation includes high and low voltage wire routing and integration, as well as installation of wing extensions, tips, booms, and flaperon and control surface actuators.

Once each wing completes these checks, it’s handed off to be integrated with the fuselage.

[Andrew Marshall @AndrewM61370616]

Long $WLTH and short $CRCL conceptually makes a lot of sense here. Not sure if it would actually work, but makes sense at least.

[Retail Bear @RetailBear]

“Outdated data”, in other words it is the fault of $PLTR

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

U.S. MILITARY MISTAKENLY STRIKES SCHOOL IN IRAN

A preliminary U.S. investigation finds the Feb. 28 Tomahawk missile strike on Shajarah Tayyebeh Elementary School in Minab was a targeting error. Outdated data from the Defense Intelligence Agency led Central Command to strike a building formerly part of a nearby naval base, killing at least 175 people, mostly children.

Officials say the error reflects human and procedural failures, not new technology. Satellite imagery and videos confirm U.S. responsibility. The investigation is ongoing, with questions about why data wasn’t verified. President Donald Trump initially blamed Iran but says he will accept the findings.

[Retail Bear @RetailBear]

My HSA portfolio 😭😭😭

[Investing visuals @InvestingVisual]

Chamath Palihapitiya: Capital Loss as a Service.

[Retail Bear @RetailBear]

@commonsenseplay Hasn’t this move been telegraphed for months if not years? With respect, why were you still holding $PYPL beforehand if you fear X money so much?

[Retail Bear @RetailBear]

I called the top of $PLTR, despite expecting great 2025Q3 earnings, because the price had reached levels of absurdity. $PLTR is down about 25% since.

$TSLA now has a higher PE ratio than $PLTR! Beyond absurdity. $TSLZ

[Retail Bear @RetailBear]

Was planning to wait until after 2025Q3 earnings report to short $PLTR; however, its price is now impossible to justify.