忘れる前にメモ

[cis@株 先物 FX 新信長の野望 @cissan_9984]

俺の今の持ち高ベスト5理由付き

1.日経平均、インチキとか歪んでるとか言われてるが、上がれば上がるほど寄与度が上がるという優良株まみれのインフレ時は最優秀指数

2.ハゲバン、優秀な人が有利な立場でエンドレスバブルのアメリカ未公開株を超有利な金利で円キャリー投資してくれるというバグ銘柄

3.アドバン、テスター界のエヌビディア、実は世界シェア7割、50%値上げしても世界はアドバンテスターを買うしかない

4.キオクシア、時価総額同じ規模のサンディスクの全て上位互換、あれ？サンディスク買うよりここの方が遥かに良いんじゃね？を外人も気が付き始めてる

5.レーザー、ここの製品買いたい企業殺到の予約が取れない店状態、2年後まで受注埋まってて納期も一年以上、いくら値上げしても売れる状況、これから数年は値上げするだけで利益が増える状態、下方修正はまず無し

[Szymanski @Szymansk_ii]

Next time you think of giving up, remember this photo of Elon in 2008.

[Actu en Vif @actuenvif]

🚨🇪🇸✈️ L’avion du Premier ministre espagnol Pedro Sánchez a dû atterrir en urgence à Ankara, en Turquie, en raison d’un problème moteur survenu en vol alors qu’il se rendait en Arménie.

[GeoInsider @InsiderGeo]

Looking at Trump's latest post, something's shifting. Tone is completely different from the last 48 hours.
No more "no more Mr. Nice Guy," no regime change, no threats on power plants. Instead he's building a comparison with Obama's JCPOA.
"My deal will be far better." When a president starts explaining why his deal beats his predecessor's, a deal is usually coming.

Notice what's missing. No mention of uranium transfer to the US. No "zero enrichment." No "no money exchanged." All the hard points Iran publicly rejected.
He's quietly dropping them without admitting it. Classic Trump pattern, max pressure to get them to the table, then walk back the maximalist positions once they're seated. Same playbook as North Korea 2018, Mexico tariffs, China trade.

My read: Trump is already pre-selling the deal that's coming. The fact that he's framing it against JCPOA suggests the final agreement will probably look more like JCPOA than he'll ever admit. Some monitoring, some enrichment limits, probably no physical uranium transfer like he claimed yesterday.
Packaged as "the greatest deal in history" for domestic consumption.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Details emerge regarding tomorrow's second round of US-Iran negotiations which President Trump calls the "last chance" for Iran.

Details include:

1. VP Vance and Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are traveling to Pakistan to represent the US

2. Trump is seeking a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and dismantle Iran's nuclear program

3. Trump believes there is a "divide" within the Iranian government

4. If no deal is reached this week, Trump says he will be ordering strikes on Iran's power plants and bridges

5. "If they don't sign this deal, the whole country is going to get blown up," Trump says

High stakes talks commence with 2 days left in the ceasefire.

[ヤバそれまじかよ @douga111www]

これすごいな。
何度観ても脳が納得しない…。

[マックン@米国株トレーダー @pennyhunter_sub]

体感90%ぐらい当たる自信ありですが、

・2020年新型コロナからの金融緩和バブル
・2025年関税緩和
・2024年からのインフレ軽減

以来のチンパンジーでもまともな株買えば儲かる相場が始まりました🥴

ここで長期的にショート目線やキャッシュ厚めを推奨するインフルエンサー(短期は除く)はチンパンジー以下の可能性ありますので、そういう人はフォローせずにミュート、又はブロックしときましょう🧱(過激派)

[Pepesso @0xPepesso]

🚨 TRUMP TORE UP THE DEAL WITH IRAN

WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY CAROLINE CONFIRMED IT:

"TRUMP THREW THE IRANIAN 10-POINT PLAN IN THE TRASH"

PLEASE STOP DOING THIS I’M TIRED OF BUYING THE DIP!

[Wimar.X @DefiWimar]

🚨 BREAKING

TRUMP WILL MAKE AN EMERGENCY IRAN-RELATED ANNOUNCEMENT TODAY AT 1 PM ET!

REPORTS EXPECT HIM TO CANCEL THE CEASEFIRE WITH IRAN AFTER THE LATEST ISRAEL-LEBANON STRIKES.

IF TRUE, THIS WOULD BE REALLY BAD FOR MARKETS...

[Jackson Hinkle 🇺🇸 @jacksonhinkle]

🚨🇮🇷🇮🇱🇱🇧 BREAKING: Iran OFFICIALLY CLOSES the STRAIT OF HORMUZ until further notice due to Israel’s attack on Lebanon - Fars New Agency

[Iran News 24 @IRanMediaco]

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf:

Violation of three clauses of the ten-point plan before the start of negotiations, including breach of the ceasefire in Lebanon, intrusion into Iranian airspace, and denial of Tehran's right to uranium enrichment.

The deep distrust we hold towards the United States stems from its repeated violations of all forms of commitments — a pattern that, unfortunately, has repeated once again.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: We have received the full details on the US-Iran 2-week ceasefire announced by President Trump:

Details include:

1. The 2-week pause is subject to Iran agreeing to the "complete, immediate, and safe opening" of the Strait of Hormuz

2. Trump describes this as a "double sided ceasefire" brokered by Pakistan

3. Trump says the US has "already met and exceeded all military objectives"

4. Trump says the US and Iran are "far along with a definitive agreement for long-term peace"

5. Trump says Iran's 10-point proposal is a "workable basis" and this two-week period will allow an agreement to be finalized

We now await comment from Iran.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Iran says it has "forced" the US to accept its "10-point plan" which includes the following terms:

1. Commitment to non-aggression
2. Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz
3. Acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment
4. Lifting of all primary sanctions
5. Lifting of all secondary sanctions
6. Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions
7. Termination of all Board of Governors resolutions
8. Paying compensation to Iran
9. Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region
10. Cessation of war on all fronts, including in Lebanon

Trump says this plan is "a workable basis."

[Ibrahim Majed @IbrahimMajed]

𝗧𝗥𝗨𝗠𝗣 𝗥𝗔𝗖𝗘𝗦 𝗧𝗢 𝗦𝗘𝗖𝗨𝗥𝗘 𝗖𝗘𝗔𝗦𝗘𝗙𝗜𝗥𝗘 𝗪𝗜𝗧𝗛 𝗜𝗥𝗔𝗡 𝗨𝗡𝗗𝗘𝗥 𝗜𝗡𝗧𝗘𝗡𝗦𝗘 𝗣𝗥𝗘𝗦𝗦𝗨𝗥𝗘

According to an informed source cited by Fars News Agency, the U.S. is now actively pushing for a ceasefire with Iran through multiple backchannels.

Trump is reportedly working to open a direct path toward negotiations, using five countries and eight intelligence agencies to establish contact with Tehran.
Several allied heads of state and intelligence services have already conducted separate communications in an effort to broker a deal.

The urgency comes as Trump faces mounting political pressure after setting a deadline for negotiations with Iran, one he now risks failing to meet.
A collapse of this track could significantly damage his credibility and weaken his administration.

The situation inside Washington is becoming increasingly tense.
The “Isfahan incident” over the past two days has sharply intensified pressure on the White House.
At the same time, internal concerns are rising within the administration, with reports suggesting that leadership tensions in the Pentagon have already led to high-level consequences, with further changes potentially imminent.

Over the past 24 hours, the U.S. has reportedly reached out to any country it believes has influence with Iran, seeking urgent mediation to de-escalate the situation.

Meanwhile, pressure from Israel and pro-Israel lobbying circles continues to grow.
Trump is said to be fully aware of this pressure, yet unwilling to accept what is being framed as a strategic defeat.

The current U.S. approach reportedly includes reshaping the negotiation channel, moving away from figures seen as too close to Netanyahu, and attempting to build a more credible path for talks, while offering concessions in response to Iranian demands.

At the same time, concerns are rising in Washington over the economic fallout, particularly the risk of a sharp increase in fuel prices starting next week, something the U.S. is not prepared to absorb.

[marigu @marigu7850]

この犬、天才すぎる
どうやってあのタイヤを外すのか、そのテクニックを見て🔘🐕👏👏👏😲👍✨✨

[信太郎🏯米国株投資 @nobutaro_mane]

如何に原油が景気に及ぼす影響がでかいかがよくわかる。今年は仮に停戦が実現しても一波乱あるよなぁ時差を伴って、、

>
原油が100ドル超えを30日以上維持すれば、2013年を除くすべての類似例で市場が崩壊を示します。

[Isaac Jiménez @isaacjdotcom]

Ahora todo tiene sentido, no era una operación de rescate, era todo mentira, pretendían asaltar la central nuclear y robar todo el uranio almacenado.

Han perdido 12 aviones.

[Actu en Vif @actuenvif]

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 Un porte-parole iranien révèle que "l'opération désespérée de Trump pour voler de l'uranium enrichi a été un échec total."

Il confirme que l'armée américaine a subi un scandale désastreux après avoir rencontré une résistance farouche.

[Isaac Jiménez @isaacjdotcom]

Un piloto herido ha batido todos los récords de ultramaratón del mundo, 177 kilómetros en 24 horas.

4 maratones seguidas corriendo entre 100 y 160 kilómetros por hora sin descansar.

Los americanos nos toman por subnormales y si cuestionas su relato, es que estás financiado por Rusia.

[The Hormuz Letter @HormuzLetter]

NEW: Satellite imagery confirms three major UAE energy facilities are burning from Iranian strikes. Habshan, Asab, and Bu Hasa all show active fires per Sentinel-2L imagery.

Habshan is one of the largest gas processing complexes in the world, with a capacity of 6.1 billion standard cubic feet per day.

Asab Central Degassing Station processes ~720,000 barrels per day. It stabilizes crude into Murban, the UAE's main export grade.

Bu Hasa is the UAE's largest onshore oil field, with a production capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. It has been burning for over a week.

1.37 million barrels per day of crude capacity is on fire inside UAE territory.