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ANOTHER HUGE SWEEP +16.69U ๐งน๐งน
Ja'Kobe Walter O9.5 points โ
Moussa Diabate O2.5 asts (+260)๐ โ
Luke Kennard O16.5 pts+asts โ
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+73.76U last 19 days ๐ฅ
Just an incredible run the past 5+ weeks. We have been putting up unseen type numbers in terms of profit in this stretch ๐
Very happy with the reads, all sweat free. Walter 1st half cash, Diabate and Kennard both early 3rd qtr
We got ELITE odds in these plays, and cashed Kennard & Walter that also reverted to straights on Novig with Dejounte ruled out!
I greatly appreciate everyone in here, especially those who always are positive and engaging on here and Twitter! It doesn't go unnoticed. Glad to have this community and to help you all make major money being with me long term. Let's STAY HOT โผ
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Jaylen Brown over 27.5 points
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Posted hours early in Discord. Analysisโฌ๏ธ
Jaylen Brown gets an excellent spot tonight to score vs the Hornets. We've seen CHA has been stingy to spot ups and catch & shoot opportunities which has led to opposing teams best player to get good volume.
On the season the Hornets give up the 4th fewest pts on 5th fewest possessions to spot up shooters and tied for the 10th fewest catch & shoot 3-PT attempts per game. Just in the last 10 games, 7th fewest C&S 3-PT attempts.
This is good because it should help limit volume from the role players/shooters like Hauser, Scheierman, and White.
This should also induce high volume for Brown as not allowing many catch & shoot looks is indicative of playing alot of 1v1 defense with minimal help.
CHA allows tied for the 5th highest effective FG% on pull-ups this season. In their last 10 games the Hornets give up the 3rd highest pull-up frequency in the league. This is ideal for JB as opposed to his teammates because he takes 10.5 pull-up FGA per game making up for 47% of his total shots (7th highest pull-up volume in the NBA).
They also gives up 4th most pts to PnR handler which is about 20% of Brown's production and the 10th most made FG's in restricted area (28% of JB's FG's.
When facing bottom half pull-up andย restricted area defense with 31+ mins and Pritchard+White in, Jaylen Brown averages 31.2 ppg going over this line in 10/11 games.
Similar style high USG players have had big games on high volume vs CHA:
Cade 33 pts (34 FG+FTA)
SGA 27 & 24 FG+FTA in 29 & 30 mins
Brunson 26 and 33 pts on 24 & 33 FG+FTA
Good buy low here after Jaylen has been under in 5 of last 7 (alot of blowouts), notably all games decided by double digits and 6 of them by 16+ pts. Should be a closer game here with a 6.5 pt spread where he is needed to be aggressive.
Widely available on DFS sites and sportsbooks. Line was -110 on books at time of post in Discord. Current best odds I'm seeing is -120 on Bet365.
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All plays already posted in Discord โ
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Time to get back on track, due for a big day and no better time for it on a great slate
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Reed Sheppard over 20.5 PRA
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Posted hours early in Discord. Analysisโฌ๏ธ
Reed Sheppard gets a great opportunity to take advantage of increased minutes and Usage tonight against the Pacers.
The key news here is Kevin Durant being out for this game, obviously a huge piece of this team. His absence opens up a ton of shots to go around and I expect Reed to pick up alot of the slack here.
On the season when playing next to Durant, we see Sheppard has a 19.3 USG. However with KD off the court this season, he sees a major boost to a very solid 24.7 USG. With both Durant and Adams off the court, Reed has a 25.42 USG, 17.71 AST% and 5.78 total reb%.
There has been 2 games with Durant out this season, in those games Reed started both and played 27 and 37 minutes. One game was a major blowout vs PHX and it's important to mention Aaron Holiday played big minutes off the bench in both of those games (taking away some Reed playing time in the game vs PHX).
Holiday has barely been in the rotation lately, so I expect Sheppard to get around 30 minutes with upside for more. In the game he saw 37 mins without KD and with Sengun+Amen available, Reed put up an insane 45 PRA with a 28.4 USG.
Considering he has a 25.42 USG all year with Adams+KD off the court, we should expect a 20+% USG here.
That's important because in games with 20+% USG and 25+ minutes, Sheppard aversges 26.8 PRA going over this in 7/9 games. Misses vs DEN and DET who rank 6th and 1st in PRA allowed to guards.
Notably the Pacers are a great matchup for on ball guards as they play single coverage, they also give up the 10th most PRA to guards. IND allows 4th most points to Pick & Roll ball handlers, Reed scores nearly 30% of his pts as PnR handlers (should only rise without KD seeing more on ball reps).
With 24+ mins vs non top 10 reb+ast defenses vs guards, Reed avg 7.5 RA (IND allows 11th most RA to guards). He should be able to score as well as get peripherals in this pace up spot.
IND ranks 9th in pace, Rockets should play faster without KD as a half court offensive weapon. Game likely stays competitive being @ IND and the spread is just 6.5 pts.
Widely available on all DFS sites and sportsbooks, best line currently -106 on FD.
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Jarrett Allen O25.5 PRA โ
Julius Randle O34.5 PRA โ
Moussa Diabate O8.5 rebounds โ
Alperen Sengun O15.5 rebs+asts โ
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We move to +44U in January ๐ฅ
WHAT A DAY! Super satisfied with these reads, they all went very well for us including a few sweat free easy cashes!
This is why I stress LONG TERM mindset, down stretches mean nothing when we always end up getting back on track and make up for it and then some with the big days like this!
Stick around for the long run and you simply will make a ton of money each an every year ๐ค
Appreciate the support for each and every one of you. Any engagement means alot to me and helps me grow to help more people!