Richard Fargose

Editorial Consultant at BasisPoint Insight

[joy fargose @joyfargose]

@mpcb_official वसई पश्चिम भागातील गास–सन सिटी रस्त्यालगतच्या खारटनातRMC(Ready Mix Concrete)मिक्सर ट्रकमधून काँक्रिट टाकून पर्यावरण व सार्वजनिक आरोग्यास धोका निर्माण होत असल्याबाबत तक्रार व कारवाईची मागणी. @vvcmc_official
@collectorpal
@CMOMaharashtra
@MBVVPOLICE @RichardFargose

[Dr. Brahma Chellaney @Chellaney]

Trump’s Call to Modi Was Damage Control

Strip away the diplomatic niceties and the picture is clear: Donald Trump’s call to Narendra Modi was not routine consultation, but pure damage control.

By routing through Pakistan his 15-point “peace” plan to end the war that he started against Iran, Trump has made that country’s army chief an indispensable intermediary. Field Marshal Asim Munir’s emergence as Washington’s channel to Tehran not only underscores Pakistan’s geopolitical relevance to Washington, but also fits with Trump’s earlier description of Munir as his “favorite field marshal.”

For New Delhi, the optics are galling.

India bears the brunt of the economic fallout from a war launched by its two principal strategic partners, the U.S. and Israel. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively disrupted and Indian shipments exposed to risk, New Delhi is both stakeholder and victim.

Yet, in a stark inversion of roles, it is not India but Pakistan (which has long used its nuclear-weapons shield to export terrorism) that is Washington’s diplomatic conduit.

This explains Trump’s phone call. The language of keeping India “in the loop” is just reassurance — a way to soften the blow, not change the reality.

Because the reality is this: When it mattered, Trump chose Pakistan as the conduit, and is now trying to make sure Modi doesn’t take it personally.

This is just the latest occasion when Trump has sought to undermine his “very good friend” Modi.

[Krishnadevan V @krishnadevanv]

@HDFC_Bank's chairman resigned, rattled #markets, then walked back his own charges. An ambiguous letter. Zero specifics. Those bred in the sarkar rarely learn that in a boardroom, kowtowing runs both ways. Read @91basispoints https://t.co/xotFKyaBO3 @HDFCBankNews @FinMinIndia

[BasisPoint Insight @91basispoints]

India’s new GDP and CPI series do more than update base years, they quietly change the macro narrative. Growth is lower but less volatile, nominal GDP is smaller, and core inflation appears softer, all of which reshape how policy should read the economy.

But the signal comes with a complication. Just as data becomes more reliable, geopolitics is making the outlook more uncertain. If oil shocks push inflation higher while growth slows, the RBI will be forced to balance better data with a noisier world. The question is whether clearer numbers will lead to clearer policy, or more difficult trade-offs.

Sameer Narang, Head of Economics Research at ICICI Bank, writes for BasisPoint:
Rebasing Reality Resets India’s Growth and Inflation Narrative
https://t.co/jlXA3qTayL

#GDPRebasing #IndiaGrowth #InflationVsGrowth #EconomicData #MacroSignals #RBIPolicy #DataRevision #GrowthNarrative

[BasisPoint Insight @91basispoints]

Is the RBI still managing liquidity, or has it become the bond market’s buyer of first resort?

With ₹1 trillion of screen-based OMOs and ₹8.58 trillion of total net buying absorbing over 80% of net borrowing, the central bank is no longer at the margins of the market but firmly inside it.

Yet yields remain stubborn. If such large intervention cannot reprice the curve, what is holding it up? And more importantly, what happens when this support fades? The real risk may not be high yields today, but how sharply they adjust tomorrow.

Read @RichardFargose’s column for BasisPoint:
RBI Is Now the Bond Market’s Buyer of First Resort
https://t.co/mU7FggEIfZ

#BondMarkets #RBI #GovtBonds #MonetaryPolicy #Liquidity #FixedIncome #IndiaEconomy #YieldCurve

[joy fargose @joyfargose]

Subject: Request to Expedite Commencement of Work on Sanctioned Vasai Road Railway Terminus Project

@drmbct @WesternRly @AshwiniVaishnaw @PMOIndia @RailMinIndia

[BasisPoint Insight @91basispoints]

A must-read for all stakeholders.

India’s municipal bond revival is gathering pace — but incentives alone cannot substitute for governance discipline, revenue stability, and climate-aware risk management.

@SharmilaChavaly makes a compelling case for restoring the 2017 rigour while upgrading the framework for a more resilient urban future.

Urban infrastructure needs capital.
Capital needs credibility.

Read: Why India’s Municipal Bonds Need Founding Rigour, Climate Reset
https://t.co/prvnCEfLvc

#MunicipalBonds #UrbanFinance #Infrastructure #PublicPolicy #ClimateRisk

[atul kulkarni @atul_kulkarni]

जिस समाज की प्रतिभा को पहचानने की शक्ति कमजोर हो चुकी हो, उस समाज की प्रतिभावान पैदा करने की क्षमता बहुत पहले ही ख़त्म हो चुकी होती है।
और फिर जो बचा है वो कितना खोखला है ये समझ आते आते बहुत देर हो चुकी होती है…

#globalphenomenon

[BasisPoint Insight @91basispoints]

The 60:40 Reality

States today account for around 60% of total public expenditure in India, while the Centre accounts for the remaining 40%. On the revenue side, the picture is reversed: the Centre raises about 60% of combined revenue, while the states collectively raise around 40%. This asymmetry now sits at the heart of India’s fiscal and macroeconomic story, writes former RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao.

This 60:40 reality means India’s macroeconomic outcomes can no longer be read through the Union Budget alone. Growth, borrowing costs and stability will increasingly depend on how state finances are managed—how they spend, how transparently they borrow, and how closely fiscal choices are coordinated across levels of government.

Read Subbarao’s column for BasisPoint:
State Finances are India’s New Macroeconomic Frontier
https://t.co/xv864X2b0X

#Budget2026 #BPIBudget2026 #DrSubbarao #StateFinances #FiscalFederalism #PublicDebt #BondMarkets #IndiaEconomy #Macroeconomics

[BasisPoint Insight @91basispoints]

Nearly ₹30 trillion in bond supply and fragile demand mean yields will remain high in 2026-27 unless the RBI steps in as the buyer of last resort.

Read ‘India’s Bond Market Will Test the RBI in 2026–27’ on BasisPoint Insight to see how this pressure is already visible in the data.
https://t.co/vG8u68x8aC

#Budget2026 #BPIBudget2026 #BondMarkets #RBI #GSec #YieldCurve #FiscalDeficit #OMOs #IndiaEconomy

[Shankar Sharma @1shankarsharma]

15 days ago, I spent 6 of the best hours I ever have, discussing the economy with two brilliant economic minds:
(@Dhananj89102936) & @kaul_vivek . No brain -killing sensex "5 lakh" target, " kya Lagta hai", etc .
Just core macro eco theory and practice. Decoding India's numbers is being Sherlock Holmes. A key clue is in the M3, broad money supply. That's anemic, and usually is 1.25-1.5 x of growth. It's just 9% growth, so impliedly, actual growth is more like 6%. Or if you normalise the deflator to a more realistic number, you will get 4-6% growth. That's the corroborated number across most data.

And that's why the markets are behaving as they are.

Baccha Party 🎉,
If there is only one analysis of the GDP data you should read, read this by Dhananjay Sinha.
https://t.co/s5zFCGO1HS

[Satish Acharya @satishacharya]

Sonam Wangchuk that we all know.
#SonamWangchuck

[Saurav Das @SauravDassss]

Justice Aravind Kumar (former CJ of Gujarat HC) and Justice N.V. Anjaria (the Gujarat judge who was the compromise candidate selected in Justice Pancholi’s stead) to hear the 2020 Larger Conspiracy bail pleas.

All hail the Master of the Roster.

https://t.co/rwR3MYPT4v

[Richard Fargose @RichardFargose]

@tajmahalfoxtrot Happy Feast

[Newton Bank Kumar @idesibanda]

Boardroom Blues @PiyushS_07 👏

[BasisPoint Insight @91basispoints]

India’s June inflation print fell to a six-year low of 2.10%—but not in Kerala. The state’s inflation soared to 6.71%, exposing a gap in policy lens. Surging coconut oil, fruit, and gold prices have pushed Kerala’s household budgets to the edge, highlighting how state-level shocks and consumption patterns can make national averages irrelevant.

Read @RichardFargose's analysis: Kerala’s Inflation Crisis Exposes India’s Blind Spot
https://t.co/B8OIEWLJip

#KeralaCrisis #InflationGap #CoconutOilSurge #GoldShock #FoodInflation #PolicyBlindSpot #IndiaMacro

[BasisPoint Insight @91basispoints]

Rupee, Rates, and Reforms: Nilesh Shah on India’s Market Shift

From jumbo rate cuts to the future of the rupee, and from corporate bond market bottlenecks to global FDI flows— Nilesh Shah doesn’t hold back in this wide-ranging, unscripted conversation with Manoj Rane on the latest episode of Market Makers, hosted by BasisPoint Insight.

As MD & CEO of Kotak Mutual Fund and a member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, @NileshShah68 offers a rare insider's view of:
🔹RBI’s evolving interest rate stance
🔹Liquidity, inflation, and market psychology
🔹Why India needs rule of law to unlock debt markets
🔹The elephant-in-the-room role of RBI in FX
🔹What it’ll take to deliver double-digit growth

Watch the full conversation here: https://t.co/JGl1AaJHzg

#NileshShah #MarketMakers #InterestRates #IndianEconomy #MutualFunds #RBI #FDI #INR #EquityMarkets #BasisPointInsight

[Dr Arvind Mayaram اروند مایارام अरविंद मायाराम @MayaramArvind]

Great insight - ⁦@SharmilaChavaly⁩

Why India’s Infrastructure Is Breaking Before It’s Even Finished https://t.co/f5onuLsjkg

[BasisPoint Insight @91basispoints]

https://t.co/r79XZNbNAO

[BasisPoint Insight @91basispoints]

The RBI just launched a full-spectrum monetary offensive:
•50 bps rate cut
•100 bps CRR cut
•₹2.5T liquidity injection
•Quick stance revert to neutral

Was this bold pre-emption—or quiet anxiety?

BasisPoint Groupthink calls it what it is: Operation Frontload.

Read: https://t.co/3Rs4jvcSxL

#RBIPolicy #RBIRateCut #MPCMove #PolicyWhiplash #FrontloadSignal #MonetaryDrama