Rick Joe

if you type long enough into the abyss, the abyss will type back

[Rick Joe @RickJoe_PLA]

I don't know if the proper F-47 (EMD onwards) will ultimately have canards, but it would certainly be the funniest outcome if it does.

[Fighterman_FFRC @Fighterman_FFRC]

I'm starting to believe

[Rick Joe @RickJoe_PLA]

@wuthi11_ @WenJian0922 Correct. The turret is not new at all, and is actually from a while ago and fairly well established.

[Rick Joe @RickJoe_PLA]

Even if we scale 09V's hull diameter with this mystery submarine (for illustration purposes), it is a fair bit shorter, meaning it probably isn't a 09V, but it also doesn't correspond to what a 10m diameter, 120m length submarine would look like...

I'm open to ideas.

[Rick Joe @RickJoe_PLA]

At a glance, this hull doesn't look like a 120m length, 10m diameter sub.
Tbh it's similar to proportions of 09V (~110m length, ~12m diameter), when factoring in an obscured tail by the crane.

I wonder if this hull is 09V (sail shadow not visible due to angle of sun?).
To await.

[Rick Joe @RickJoe_PLA]

At a glance, this hull doesn't look like a 120m length, 10m diameter sub.
Tbh it's similar to proportions of 09V (~110m length, ~12m diameter), when factoring in an obscured tail by the crane.

I wonder if this hull is 09V (sail shadow not visible due to angle of sun?).
To await.

[KAROTASU @type36512]

CSSC渤海造船　新型潜水艦の進水

5/29撮影の衛星画像。記事で取り上げられている120m級セイルレス新型潜水艦はこれのことだと思う。ただ、分解能の都合もあり、はじめ見たときはセイルレス船形とは分からなかった。潜水艦が進水したのは間違いないが、慎重な判断が必要だった

@SkyfiApp
@Satellogic

[Rick Joe @RickJoe_PLA]

@AlexLuck9 @teortaxesTex If it's 12m the same as 09V then that would be... even more impressive.

[Rick Joe @RickJoe_PLA]

@Hurin92 A smaller hull diameter (~10m) means it would very unlikely be related to 09V or be a variant (~12m)

[Rick Joe @RickJoe_PLA]

Nice find.

Though the 12m diameter SSN launched in February this year, should overwhelmingly likely be 09V, that doesn't change imo

For 09V, its emergence and characteristics weren't a surprise (in the same way this one is).

[Naval News @navalnewscom]

**BREAKING** New Mystery Submarine Signals China’s Rapid Undersea Expansion 🇨🇳
https://t.co/axjKZzrvxV

[Rick Joe @RickJoe_PLA]

@AlexLuck9 Nice article.

If it is indeed at JN as well as Bohai, the good thing is that the overflight near JN may provide us with some decent imagery in due time... if they choose to release pictures.

[Rick Joe @RickJoe_PLA]

@teortaxesTex The closest parallel is the PRC EV industry of the mid-2010s. Many burgeoning players (but none proven at scale yet), w/ many lines of effort, and with foundational technologies either demonstrated or in the works.

Favourites are less relevant in context of overall groundswell.

[Rick Joe @RickJoe_PLA]

@teortaxesTex I don't think any Chinese player will do SpaceX style "fail fast, fix faster" cadence. Costs, stakeholders, other reasons.

Landspace has aesthetics and their PR is good, and they're the most credible commercial player so far.
But be careful to not miss forest for the trees imo.

[Rick Joe @RickJoe_PLA]

@teortaxesTex Going forwards with methalox was a good choice by Landspace but there's also still room for Kerolox.

CZ-10A/B and CZ-12A/B are also fine as well. No player is big enough to scale rapidly, so having multiple players with multiple lines of effort is a strength for now.

[Rick Joe @RickJoe_PLA]

@RickJoe_PLA I think there is no single Chinese player national or commercial who's doing aggressive live tests with high cadence, and it's a shame. The state is theoretically better resourced for this, but I have more faith in LandSpace's design and taste.

[Rick Joe @RickJoe_PLA]

@teortaxesTex Do you mean PRC state players, or PRC commercial?

Either way, imo direct comparisons with SpaceX from both market share and organisational pov is misleading. Many ways to skin a cat etc.

Ofc there's a bigger conversation re PRC space, but not practical with tweets.

[Rick Joe @RickJoe_PLA]

@kaskaide1 @Ahmed_kv44 I explained the relevant likely domains of advancements in a previous reply above... it's not only improved fuel that factors into for range gains

Also, range is only one of multiple aspects of BVRAAM performance. Don't lose forest for trees.

https://t.co/RVPEXiK8fk

[Rick Joe @RickJoe_PLA]

@Ahmed_kv44 @kaskaide1 Range depends on of advancement of fuel/propulsion, flight control laws, guidance, battery, materials, warhead, among other factors.

10 years of progress between PL-15 and PL-16 of all those, can definitely allow a slightly smaller missile achieve much greater range.

[Rick Joe @RickJoe_PLA]

@kaskaide1 @Ahmed_kv44 It probably can carry 6x folding wing PL-15s, yet they've gone for PL-16 which is said to be slightly smaller in footprint.

Don't obsess over missile size -- if technology allows next gen capability requirements to be met in a smaller missile , why do they need a bigger missile?

[Rick Joe @RickJoe_PLA]

@kaskaide1 @Ahmed_kv44 A slightly smaller missile allows more to be carried in the internal weapons bay.

J-20/A/S or J-35/A can carry 4x PL-15 or 6x PL-16 internally. The latter is much *more* capable than the former despite enjoying a greater magazine size due to a smaller munition footprint.

[Rick Joe @RickJoe_PLA]

@ad200430 Lots of plausible reasons which a tweet isn't enough to fully explain.
Speed; dual/multi-pulse being good; cross sectional drag; air feeding when maneuvering; trajectory; and probably more.

A good concept is only as good as what the alternatives are, after all.

[Rick Joe @RickJoe_PLA]

PL-21 (and solid ramjet) isn't something the PLA are pursuing as a BVR solution.
There's a reason they've gone with advanced solid rocket motor variants

The image being cited goes back to the early 2010s and is out of date and misleading. Better for people to actively ignore it

[CrystalAura @Ahmed_kv44]

The Chinese PL-21 is an ultra-long-range air-to-air missile designed primarily to target high-value assets like AWACS and refuelling tankers. It boasts an estimated operational range exceeding 200kilometers.

[Rick Joe @RickJoe_PLA]

@Ahmed_kv44 @kaskaide1 Range depends on of advancement of fuel/propulsion, flight control laws, guidance, battery, materials, warhead, among other factors.

10 years of progress between PL-15 and PL-16 of all those, can definitely allow a slightly smaller missile achieve much greater range.