PredictiveHODL

90% of the time I'm 100% allocated to BTC.

I build models, not so much here though.

[PredictiveHODL @Ride64J]

One of the best cycle top/bottom oscillators, the MVRV Z-Score.

Market Cap (black)- self explanatory

Realized Cap (blue) - rather than current price x number of outstanding coins, it's the sum of each coin's price the last time it was moved.

One of the reasons I like Realized Cap so much is it's a way to quantify and view adoption in terms of dollars rather than users or wallets. Realized Cap is effectively the sum total of the amount of money invested into Bitcoin.

The 'Z-Score' component (orange) is really just a model residual, where Realized Cap is the model 'prediction' and Market Cap is your target variable. Stated differently, the Z-Score is the ratio of Realized Cap to Market Cap.

[PredictiveHODL @Ride64J]

BTC looking pretty lousy relative to... every other asset.

There's an argument that the bear market would be worse in a different environment, but the 2025 cycle top was somewhat disappointing anyway, so a deeper drop feels unwarranted on that basis alone.

A sustained run to 95-100k in the next 6 months would be a very positive signal. The 4 year cycles can't go on forever, and such a run would be a healthy departure from that narrative in the context of all other assets.

Otherwise, we wait for AI agents to begin transacting in and/or accumulating BTC.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

A message from a friend... made me laugh (and cry a little inside)...

"Mate, whats your take on why crypto has ebola?"

[PredictiveHODL @Ride64J]

@joeroganhq Fuck this guy.

His brain was broken by Trump's mere existence. But when Trump panders to the neocon warhawks, suddenly he's acceptable, borderline preferable?

Can't wait for the day I never hear a Sam Harris take again.

[PredictiveHODL @Ride64J]

@Oakmanbearcow @SwipeWright How can you not be at this point.

[PredictiveHODL @Ride64J]

@kara73872111 @ineedanothernap Single mom behaviour

[PredictiveHODL @Ride64J]

@ineedanothernap @kara73872111 It's a class issue. These are low-class people.

[PredictiveHODL @Ride64J]

@xorxorg @ineedanothernap Lol okay redditor.

[PredictiveHODL @Ride64J]

@NickStillHere We don't claim them.

It's fkng embarrassing though.

[PredictiveHODL @Ride64J]

@FraudFroag @asukagrypr K

[PredictiveHODL @Ride64J]

@scooptywoopity @asukagrypr How can you call it a movement if you have no motion?

[PredictiveHODL @Ride64J]

@brian_armstrong Never acceptable my ass. Since when? Coinbase is known for going down whenever there's volatility. Borderline criminal.

[PredictiveHODL @Ride64J]

@MyronGainesX @NickJFuentes He got the Ray Epps treatment after Jan6. Very sus

[PredictiveHODL @Ride64J]

@Fynnderella1 @MaryBowdenMD People are insane. It's kind of unbelievable.

[PredictiveHODL @Ride64J]

@navdeezi @mistressdivy It's much more nuanced.

If you have a mortgage, you're renting money from the bank.

[PredictiveHODL @Ride64J]

@DaveShapi The layman definition of consciousness is something along the lines of, "something that is aware it's alive." This does not map cleanly to something that is not a living being.

[PredictiveHODL @Ride64J]

@Ixions42 @mSanterre @LoganDobson Agreed. I think you're correct, but my recollection is admittedly spotty too. Usually these types of 'market failures' can be traced back to some asinine regulatory constraint.

[PredictiveHODL @Ride64J]

@ChrisAlvino Dude's a grifter lib through and through larping as a former conservative 😂

[PredictiveHODL @Ride64J]

We saw this with the freezing temperatures in Texas a few years back. Bitcoin miners supposedly altruistically went offline. I suspect they were just responding to exorbitant prices, but the point remains.

Energy producers should really have their own onsight bitcoin mining operations imo.

[PredictiveHODL @Ride64J]

@ai_sentience @GreatDecoupling @RichardDawkins You're debating the issue like a child.

[PredictiveHODL @Ride64J]

@TheGoblinnn If you could do it and weren't weirdly secretly impressed / openly jealous, would you care?