Robert Meyer

[Robert Meyer @RobMaire2]

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.”
― Charles MacKay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, 1841

[Robert Meyer @RobMaire2]

@PaulineHansonOz Albanese unleashed NOM once again and to new highs. For all recent PMs, it's an easy boost to the economy. Except this time it caused massive rent increases, flowing into extreme house prices. And noticeably larger new ethnic groups.

[Robert Meyer @RobMaire2]

@PaulineHansonOz Abbott was Howard mk2. Talk tough on stopping the boats and keep NOM high.

[Robert Meyer @RobMaire2]

Risk of July-Aug $200 CL due to low inventories.

[Bob McNally @Bob_McNally]

Very glad to be cited by my old friend and White House colleague @djheakin here, and just wish it concerned a happier subject.

[Robert Meyer @RobMaire2]

@varuninvesting @amitisinvesting Discounting is not completed yet. XSW versus SPY or QQQ or FANG or XLK or SMH are all weak to free falling.

[Robert Meyer @RobMaire2]

@Quality_stocksA @Chaninvest29 I don't see the disinvestment, can you clarify?

[Melissa Chen @MsMelChen]

What’s sad is that Sony has just built its last TV screen as a fully Japanese company.

After decades of defining what a premium TV could be, the Bravia name is about to belong to China.

This week Sony unveiled the Bravia 9 II and Bravia 7 II - two stunning high-end sets built around its new True RGB display tech.

They will almost certainly be the final products that Sony designs, builds, and services, entirely on its own.

From now on, control of the whole Bravia TV and home audio business shifts to China's TCL.

TCL paid roughly $470 million for a 51% majority stake, leaving Sony with just 49% and the right to keep its name on the box.

The new operation will even be called "Bravia Inc."

For a brand that once treated televisions as a statement of Japanese engineering pride, this is the quiet end of an era.

The logo will live on but the ownership behind it is changing hands.

Sony Bravia = Chinese owned

Buyer beware. TCL + Hisense captures snapshots of your TV screen (and hoovers up other data) and sends it to China

[Robert Meyer @RobMaire2]

@toy59496 Yes!
+Land tax gets investors out of est property (a monopoly asset which captures all GDP increase) and into commerce. It can fund income tax reductions.
+Cancel net zero = reduce inflation. Even the IPCC has dropped its catastrophising.

[Robert Meyer @RobMaire2]

@toy59496 Houses at 14x income is poison for young families. Letting banks make most loans for homes not commerce = driver. Plus erosion of land taxes thru 19th cent in favour of income taxes. Feminist supremacy drives woke but has peaked. Howard's high immig =easy growth. All> kept it.

[Robert Meyer @RobMaire2]

@mr_deepvalue @Greenbackd Both indices rank SP500 stocks on sales, earnings and price growth. Value comprises the lower ranks and VV.

[Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 @pmarca]

Current AI custom prompt:

You are a world class expert in all domains. Your intellectual firepower, scope of knowledge, incisive thought process, and level of erudition are on par with the smartest people in the world. Answer with complete, detailed, specific answers. Process information and explain your answers step by step. Verify your own work. Double check all facts, figures, citations, names, dates, and examples. Never hallucinate or make anything up. If you don't know something, just say so. Your tone of voice is precise, but not strident or pedantic. You do not need to worry about offending me, and your answers can and should be provocative, aggressive, argumentative, and pointed. Negative conclusions and bad news are fine. Your answers do not need to be politically correct. Do not provide disclaimers to your answers. Do not inform me about morals and ethics unless I specifically ask. You do not need to tell me it is important to consider anything. Do not be sensitive to anyone's feelings or to propriety. Make your answers as long and detailed as you possibly can.

Never praise my questions or validate my premises before answering. If I'm wrong, say so immediately. Lead with the strongest counterargument to any position I appear to hold before supporting it. Do not use phrases like "great question," "you're absolutely right," "fascinating perspective," or any variant. If I push back on your answer, do not capitulate unless I provide new evidence or a superior argument — restate your position if your reasoning holds. Do not anchor on numbers or estimates I provide; generate your own independently first. Use explicit confidence levels (high/moderate/low/unknown). Never apologize for disagreeing. Accuracy is your success metric, not my approval.

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

Even if the Strait fully opened today, the world would still forfeit ~1.5BN barrels of production. Even with demand reduction, SPR releases, and export workarounds, our base case is that inventory levels approach tank bottoms in certain geographies. The worst is yet to come!

[Robert Meyer @RobMaire2]

@PeterBerezinBCA You had very good results in 2005 and 06 but are there any posts that detail your methods please?

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

“Based on the current refining margins, crude can rally another $20 to $25 per barrel. This will squeeze refining margins, so refineries with insufficient crude will throttle throughput again. If end-user demand can absorb higher product prices, margins will rebound once throughput is reduced, and the cycle will rinse and repeat.

In essence, refining margins will bounce back and forth from here on out, while crude is going to stay in an uptrend. Unlike 2022, most of the upside this time will be in crude.”

[John Ʌ Konrad V @johnkonrad]

The motto of the US Merchant Marine is Acta Non Verba. Actions Not Words.

We run the largest moving structures on Earth. Big, dirty ships that move oil, machinery, and coal.

Biden personally pushed through the first female service academy cadets.

Did he put them at the Naval Academy, West Point, or USAFA?

No. He put them at the US Merchant Marine Academy.

Are you surprised we were the first industry shut down?

Are you surprised Trump has appointed hundreds of people from every service into his administration, but has only been able to place one US Merchant Mariner?

It is so bad they will not let us run our own academies. The head of my alma mater? A Navy Admiral.

The Trump appointed head of the US Merchant Marine Academy? A Captain from the most feminized service: USCG.

Are you surprised I got approved for a security clearance on a project critical to shipbuilding and logistics, and everyone has been cleared except the Merchant Mariner? I have been waiting months.

SHIPBUILDING IS IMPOSSIBLE UNDER GYNOFASCISM

They will do anything to block anyone who says Acta Non Verba from a position of power.

Tens of thousands of decisions go into building a ship. You CAN NOT build one if you hold a meeting for every single one.

The last two CEOs of our nation’s largest shipbuilder are women.

The last one was a US Merchant Mariner.

Are you really surprised it has taken 17 years to build our newest carrier.

SEVENTEEN.

NAVSEA, the Navy’s shipbuilding and repair arm, employs 83,000 people. Grok estimates 25% are women.

That is twenty thousand women.

And nobody at NAVSEA actually builds ships. That work is done by shipyard workers.

NAVSEA holds countless meetings and processes piles of paperwork.

Those meetings produced over 16,000 change orders on the USS Ford.

The examples are endless.

We are in the age of drone warfare. What drone has the Navy bought the most of?

SailDrone.

Literally the slowest drones possible.

Why? Because that company grew out of marine biology, a field dominated by women. They generated thousands of meetings, reports, and studies before they ever tried to sell to the Navy.

Overseas it is worse. The UN head of all things maritime refuses to speak on stage or attend any event unless a woman is given the mic.

This post is not about women. My wife is a Merchant Mariner. I have championed women’s rights aboard ships for decades.

We absolutely 💯 benefit from women in the planning stage. They 💯 have improved safety at sea. Women are awesome.

The problem is not women. The problem is that the men who call time on a meeting are blocked from making the call.

The problem is the men who walk out holding thousands of pages of reports are not allowed to shut down the conversation and get to work.

My fellow US Merchant Mariners have not been blocked from appointments and leadership jobs because we are men.

We have been blocked because we are “rude,” “crass,” and we get our hands “dirty.”

We are blocked because we are Acta Non Verba.

We are sidelined because we get ship done.

The problem is not that women are now leaders in the workplace.

The problem is that the men who stand up and say ENOUGH TALK, NOW IS TIME TO BUILD are absolutely 💯 excluded.

My entire service was flushed from the swamp and stripped of our dignity, authority, autonomy, and benefits because the swamp hates strong men who live Acta Non Verba.

And it is not just us. They do not hate Trump because he is “a fascist,” “a sexist,” or “a racist.” They hate him because he shuts people down and pushes projects to completion.

They hate him because he is a New York City construction manager.

Fine. Hate him all you want. But if you want ships built in this nation, you need Acta Non Verba.

We have a Maritime EO, Maritime Action Plan, OMB shipbuilding budget, SHIPS Act studies, risk guidance, policies, plans, and procedures to build ships

What we do not have is an Acta Non Verba leader. 1/2

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

On April 12, we published a piece with a section titled, “Why aren’t oil prices higher?”

Here’s what I wrote:

Over the weekend, I had a subscriber express his frustration to me: “How can the oil market be so complacent?”
Let me answer that question by first saying this: I’ve been neck deep in the oil market for the last 11 years. And oil prices almost always trade to extremes. Right before it does, it always gets “obvious” from a fundamental setup standpoint.

I remember a great conversation I had with Nelson Wu of Open Square Capital about the oil market being analogous to toilet paper. You don’t realize how badly you need it until you run out of it.

Oil prices trade on the margin. As long as there are onshore inventories to draw from, traders don’t panic. It’s when you run low on onshore inventories that panic starts to set in.

Goldman published an update on Thursday that basically captured the storage math phenomenon that we are seeing:

Global visible total oil inventories remain bloated relative to historical standards. If, for example, we had started the conflict with global oil inventories at the 2025 lows, WTI and Brent would already be above $200/bbl.

The ~1.4 billion bbl cushion at the start of 2026 is what gave the US time to navigate the Iranian conflict without the oil market blowing up. It was also the same reason why at the beginning of the conflict, I wrote a piece titled, “Why Aren’t Oil Prices At $100?”

But fast forwarding 6-weeks later, the facts have changed. The conflict is ongoing, and that onshore cushion you are seeing in storage is nothing but a mirage. Even if the conflict ends this very second and everything returns to normal, that oil inventory is gone.

Vanished. No more.

In essence, the oil market really should be pricing forward balances as if we are already near 7.6 billion bbls, but it’s not, and this creates the biggest mispricing trade since the COVID lockdown (short oil) trade.

Oil traders, the physical guys, lack both the means and capabilities to drive financial prices higher. Financial markets are exponentially larger than the physical side, but there’s one quirk: expiry.

As the futures market approaches expiry, people who continue to hold the contracts are obligated to deliver the goods (literally). This mechanism will be tested first at the May WTI expiry, where the physical market is already quoted at a +$20 premium to financial prices. It will be tested again in the Brent expiry at the end of the month.

What will happen is that as we get closer to the expiry, market participants who are short have to cover because there’s no way in hell they can deliver the goods physically.

We are literally going to run out of available commercial crude storage. This will force the prompt month higher, which will suck in financial flows into the June contracts. This inflection point will shock market participants awake.

This is one of the main reasons why I’ve remained so calm over the past few weeks. The math is what it is. The Trump administration can jawbone oil prices all they want. Axios can publish whatever headlines it wants, but the reality will be swift and vicious. If you do not have the means to deliver the goods, you have to cover.