Gilt yields hit their highest level since 2008 this week.
Here's why that matters for your mortgage:
Lenders price fixed rates off swap rates, not the base rate. Swap rates move with gilt yields.
Yields spike → brokers tell clients to lock in now. That's happening right now.
Quick fact check on the "London is a Labour lock" assumption:
Labour 33% Conservatives 20% Reform 17% Greens 15%
Cleverly just quit shadow cabinet to run for Mayor. If Khan goes too, Labour's likely replacement is far less established.
This isn't 2024 anymore.
My Election Day Monologue on @TimesRadio. In praise of British democracy.
It’s election day in the United Kingdom, a seminal event we too often take for granted. We also do it in a very British way.
There will be no armed guards at the polling stations. No intimidating mobs. Just paper and pencil, trusted tellers and friendly canvassers.
If the British people decide it’s time to change governments, that will happen quickly and without fuss. The military will not be mobilised. Barbed wire will not be arranged around public buildings. Defeated candidates will not be fleeing the country. Riot police will not be assembling on side streets.
But a removal van — something we’ve all had to use at some stage in our lives — will turn up sometime Friday morning to help the incumbent move out. Another will bring the belongings of the new prime minister and family.
A few words from the winner outside 10 Downing Street, a round of applause as he goes through the famous door — and the business of government continues as before. Even with a new broom there will be a sense of continuity. And calm.
Nobody will contest the overall integrity of the result, whatever minor challenges there are at the margins. The loser will concede defeat and wish the winner well. The winner will try to be magnanimous.
Nobody will be exiled. There will be no talk of being cheated, of a rigged election, or lawyers getting rich on endless court challenges. No mob will descend on the Palace of Westminster determined to overthrow the result. The pigeons will continue to peck away, undisturbed, on Parliament Square.
However people voted the result will be accepted. Folks will just get on with their lives and wait to see what the next government has in store for them.
Such a peaceful, uneventful, very British passage of power is to be treasured. It is perhaps THE distinguishing hallmark of democracy that power is passed in this way, without upheaval or protest, at the behest of the people.
Democracy requires a winner to be gracious and a loser to accept that they’ve lost, without quibble. That is the British way. It is not now true of that great democracy across the Atlantic.
It is also the case, if today heralds a change, that a centre right government will give way to a centre left one. Whatever the result the numbers in Parliament who might be deemed hard right or hard left will be de minimis. Pretty much irrelevant.
There is something quite British about that too. It will not be the case when that great democracy across the Channel votes on Sunday, where the extremes on both sides of the political divide are likely to make up almost two thirds of the National Assembly.
We broadcasters don’t do British party politics on election day. That can wait until you’ve voted and we know the result sometime after 10 o clock tonight.
So we will spend the next hour looking at elections in France and America, two countries with their own strong democratic traditions.
Also two countries, as we shall see, with democratic challenges we don’t face, whatever else may confront us.
They are our allies — fellow democrats in a world threatened by autocrats — and we must wish them well in overcoming their problems, as we tackle ours. While taking some comfort and pride from the fact that there is something quite special about our own British democracy.
So let us savour this important day.
Not again! I have NOT given my permission to be used in political adverts. This is NOT an endorsement by me in any way. I maintain strict party neutrality and am unhappy at the weaponizing of my reputation in this way.
While this isn't as bad as the first terrible representation – which said it this about tax - there's still a misdirection. As I’ve already stated, in that private conversation I was referring to Labour hoping to make a positive change I’ve been campaigning for, but it didn’t want to lock it in the manifesto as it can’t promise to deliver.
NO party’s manifesto tells the full story. ALL parties have things they hope to do but that aren’t in manifestos – as they can’t guarantee to deliver. The idea that Labour is an outlier for that is preposterous.
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2 1/2 years since the ref, a disastrous 2017 GE & only now the PM formally reaches out.... to an opposition leader unable to get off how ideological fence. This system of politics is broken. We need change and we need it now. Support @TheIndGroup here: https://t.co/pEqHwOm3bS
@sjors Yes. Or any small city car. The point is to allow people to suggest a small car, a bigger car, or doing away with a car and using bikes, public transport, etc. You assert that there are a lot of things you’d want to understand about their lifestyle, health, interests, home, etc
@sjors Tell the audience that a colleague asked you to advise how they should replace their family car. They are two adults with 2 children under 6, and they have a Smart car now. What would they suggest and why? Responses will either reveal biases or the fact that they already get it.
Nothing that has happened so far since the beginning of the world has been the end of the world, so this is not exactly reassuring https://t.co/jNTvYg89YC