Rod Alzmann

Private investor hunting for one (or three)-foot hurdles.

Special sits & other unsavory, unpopular, securities.

My edge (tax) is different than yours, DYODD.

[Rod Alzmann @RodAlzmann]

Five years ago I lived one of the craziest days in a lifetime, recording an Odd Lots interview during the morning peak of what would come to be known as meme mania.

[Bloomberg TV @BloombergTV]

https://t.co/siWD3KtGcT's Rod Alzmann has seen value in $GME since '17, before all the mania hit the stock. Hear how he stuck to his guns over the years til it paid off.

Want to hear more? Listen to @TheStalwart & @tracyalloway on the new Odd Lots podcast https://t.co/RRc9EnQxD1

[Rod Alzmann @RodAlzmann]

I voted!

Super easy. Early, in person, at any location in Hillsborough County. I made a mistake on my vote-by-mail ballot, brought it w, and they have a process where the worker cancels the VBM. Took less than 10 minutes to park, walk in, and do my civic duty 🫡

Haircut time!

[Rod Alzmann @RodAlzmann]

Ignore 'technicals', watch capex revisions.

The debt brakes have been tapped this summer, what happens if corporate earnings stop seeing marked up non-op income, or, gasp, a reversal?

[Anna Wong @AnnaEconomist]

Kevin Warsh said he is watching the second derivative of ai capex. Well, that second derivative has peaked this year, we think.

[Rod Alzmann @RodAlzmann]

@specsitsdigest This is a great resource. Honestly seeing what you'v'e been able to put out & iterate on has pushed me to improve my own internal AI-enabled investment process. Cheers.

[Rod Alzmann @RodAlzmann]

@resourcebull Meanwhile, Mosaic a Hormuz byproducts (sulfur) squeeze proxy

[Rod Alzmann @RodAlzmann]

Remember when the lifelong swamp thug claimed he’d drain the swamp? Lol. Lmao.

[Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63]

Corrupt autocracies prefer to do business with other corrupt autocracies because the profits are personal on both sides, not for the state or the country. No oversight, no investigations.

[Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63]

Corrupt autocracies prefer to do business with other corrupt autocracies because the profits are personal on both sides, not for the state or the country. No oversight, no investigations.

[Rod Alzmann @RodAlzmann]

@Ksidiii Great thread, and series worth studying.

The GameStop volatility that week was simply stunning to live through. The tail writing breakevens with spot vol into the four figures were incredible

[TDR @TheDalesReport]

Judge Rejects Bid to Reopen the Rescheduling Hearing https://t.co/V12e8FOcp8

[Rod Alzmann @RodAlzmann]

Sour Grift

[Adam Kinzinger (Slava Ukraini) 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @AdamKinzinger]

Trump’s oil deal with Venezuela was negotiated in secret. Now we know why. The contract just leaked, and it doesn’t say what Trump says it says. 

What it does say is that we bought 35 percent of a company for a penny a share. The company is run by Alejandro Betancourt, a Venezuelan businessman who’s been investigated for money laundering in Switzerland, Spain, and the United States. DOJ officials reportedly asked foreign governments to close those investigations and let him travel.

The parent company is registered through a Barbados shell, so nobody can see who the other owners are. Any dispute goes to a court in Texas. One person involved said it was built to insulate the deal from future administrations.

The company pumps about 200,000 barrels a day. America burns through that in 15 minutes. If this were a good deal, they wouldn’t have had to hide it. I break it all down in today’s show (link in reply).

[Rod Alzmann @RodAlzmann]

Just remarkable how the internal weakness of one bullying man can override all else.

Titanic Trump damns all prudence & long term strategy—fueled by well-done burgers & whatever gut reaction bacterium has been warmed by the last handler loudest in his ear, and Putin his pocket.

[Rod Alzmann @RodAlzmann]

I’ll take things not seen in healthy democratic institutions for $200, Alex.

[Eric Katz @EricM_Katz]

SCOOP: The State Dept has started asking career diplomats up for promotion if they voted for Trump in 16, 20, 24.

Federal law prohibits politically based hiring for career staff.

State tells @washingtonsun it's screening for "fidelity" and execution of the president's vision👇

[Rod Alzmann @RodAlzmann]

Looks like an eventual split-off exchange come 2027 from $ABT Hopefully performs better than MDT/MMED.

[Bloomberg @business]

Abbott Laboratories said it plans to spin off its embattled nutrition unit into a separate company. https://t.co/Jl3CJq4OEw

[Rod Alzmann @RodAlzmann]

Correct, probably. Let’s see how firmly the Russian handlers tug Don’s chain

[Hu Xijin 胡锡进 @HuXijin_GT]

Zelensky’s position has not changed; freezing the front lines has been his long-standing demand. However, Putin’s requirement is that Ukraine must cede the entire Donbas, so the core of the confrontation between the two sides remains the same. In addition, Trump’s inclination to pressure Ukraine into making concessions remains unchanged, while Europe’s firm support for Ukraine also continues. The situation in Ukraine is still maintaining the previous balance. Winter is approaching soon, battlefield activity will decline, and the situation is likely to remain as it is until next spring.

[Mitt Romney @MittRomney]

Churchill could have shortened WW2 by years if he had just “done a deal” with Hitler. George Washington could have done a deal to end the American Revolution. Zelenskyy is in good company.

[Rod Alzmann @RodAlzmann]

@BerkelKip Looks like this split-off is proving highly accretive after year 1.

[Rod Alzmann @RodAlzmann]

Useful datapoint

[Anthony Martinelli @AMartinelliWA]

Tilray Brands is using a 70% probability of federal marijuana legalization to value a MedMen-linked investment worth $4.36 million, according to a new SEC filing. https://t.co/MGE2Xq9pfB

[Rod Alzmann @RodAlzmann]

@JapanDeepValue1 @essential6t7 @ChopraUSA Thanks for the FOIA. I've been blown away watching this as both an investor in IMXI pre-deal who sold close to $16 after initial HSR (feels like a lifetime ago, a year ago)... I still have a small <100bp allocation, boy has this been something. https://t.co/9ygesFjczL

[Rod Alzmann @RodAlzmann]

I reduced my position size in the $11.50 area, as there's just too much range of uncertainty given how I had sized before the regulatory switcheroo and calendar tightness. I expect it to, and hope IMXI shareholders get their deal to close. But it reasonably may not, and ~halve.

[Rod Alzmann @RodAlzmann]

@srg444 @TheDankInformer As someone vocal about securities that’s been wrong bigly to date in the space (MAPS), and afar, & will again be wrong … I appreciate SRG’s candor and willingness to communicate views publicly in good faith.

[Rod Alzmann @RodAlzmann]

@Short_Sq_Corner