Roger Zhang

Gamelover and amateur investor - Funplus/Xterio; ex- Hillhouse, Tencent

[Roger Zhang @Rogerust001]

@zerohedge @grok Explain what does this imply and how investors should react under current circumstance

[Benny Johnson @bennyjohnson]

I’m howling 🤣

[Roger Zhang @Rogerust001]

@BillAckman @realDonaldTrump Mr. President actually does not care about the tariff at all. Only he cares about is the trade deficit and the word "reciprocal” used is not for tariff rate itself but for trade value. Also I didn't see any benefit of threatening additional 50% tariff to China for his post...

[Kintsugi Investing @kintsugiinvest]

Howard Marks just went on Bloomberg.

Not to sell fear.
Not to time markets.

But to explain how Liberation Day redefines how we should think about investing.

Here are my 2-min insights from the full interview:🧵

[GREG ISENBERG @gregisenberg]

this is what's keeping me up at night these days...

1. chatgpt 4o image gen is as big as the chatgpt launch. probably will birth 1000+ $1-$100m/year vertical software businesses.

2. we’re in the “mp3 napster era” of content. millions of creators don’t realize their entire back catalog is being weaponized into their competition because of AI.

3. every calendar, inbox, and CRM will be rebuilt from scratch in the next 3 years. not “AI-enhanced,” fully rethought.

4. i thought ai was creating digital employees. but it's more like digital employers. the first ai systems that can manage human workers will cause a restructuring of labor markets more significant than the industrial revolution.

5. if your job is interviewing people who will train ai systems that will replace people who do interviews, you're just a step in a weird recursive extinction.

6. ai is turning "service businesses that don't scale" into "product businesses with service margins." the new unicorns will be productized services with ai doing 80% of the work.

7. building communities is harder than building products but everyone pretends it's the reverse. the reality is most startups fail because nobody cares.

8. it's been 739 days since the will smith spaghetti video. imagine what could happen to gen ai in 739 more days?

9. people building "ai assistants" have never actually had assistants. real assistants need context, history, and relationship. 95% of chatbots have none of those.

10. most customer support will be automated within 36 months. not just tier 1 tickets, complex, multi-step resolution that previously required senior support staff.

11. the worst thing that can happen to your startup is mediocre success. enough to keep you going but not enough to change your life. most founders are trapped there. thinking about this a lot with respect to shutting down or doubling down on projects.

12. the ai backlash won't just come from replaced workers, it'll be from everyone who realizes their entire digital identity is being converted into training data without consent.

13. no one has ever read a terms of service ever

14. the "sketching economy" is the real ai revolution. when anyone can turn rough sketches into production-ready designs, taste and ideation become the only scarce resources.

15. i dont know how else to say it, the money (and opportunity for the avg joe) is in ai startups is in vertical-specific applications that actually understand industry context. no, adding industry terms to your prompts isn't the same thing.

16. consumer mobile is back in full swing. we went from desktop-first apps to mobile-first apps to now ai-first mobile apps. the next wave of $100m/year apps will start mobile-first with ai baked in from day one.

17. the ai middleman boom is just starting. companies that sit between foundation models and specific industries will capture most of the value while both ends get commoditized.

18. we're witnessing the birth of a whole new job category: ai workflow designers. people who can map human processes into ai-augmented workflows will be the highest-paid consultants of the next decade.

19. ai is creating winner-take-most markets overnight. the window to establish yourself as the go-to solution in a specific vertical is maybe 6-12 months before it closes for a decade. this isn't helping my sleep lollll.

20. really smart strategy to rebuild traditional products with ai as your unfair advantage, hiding the complexity behind familiar interfaces. basically, just look at proven apps that have no ai, make them ai-first (if it adds a ton of value to end customer). use ai features (don’t sell ai) in creator-led marketing. this is the playbook.

21. distribution is the only moat left. your product, tech, and team can all be replicated. your direct connection to customers cannot.

22. we'll soon hit the tipping point where custom ai tools are cheaper than hiring humans, even for small businesses.

23. nobody's talking about how ai is making previously "un-acquirable" businesses suddenly attractive targets. when you can automate operations, the owner-dependent business problem disappears.

24. the coming smb acquisition frenzy will make the 2021 tech bubble look tame. when ai drops operating costs by 60%, every small business becomes a cash flow engine.

25. if vibe coding will be a $100B opportunity, how big of an opportunity is vibe marketing? (you can follow my co-founder @boringmarketer for more on that)

26. Video game studios will separate into two distinct types: agent-driven content farms that generate infinite assets, and boutique studios focused on core mechanics. The middle will disappear entirely.

27. Corporate photography is effectively dead. No company will pay $2K for a stock-style photoshoot when they can generate unlimited perfectly on-brand imagery for the cost of a subscription.

28. enterprise sales is being completely inverted by ai. using ai to identify exactly when and how to talk to the right buyer, and set off automations. ill probably talk about this more on a pod soon.

29. i wonder if AGI will emerge from interconnected agent networks that develop emergent properties nobody designed? we're building the neural connections without realizing it.

30. while genai looks to be the $1T category, many quiet fortunes will be built in predictive ai. knowing what will happen is more valuable than generating new content.

31. the "ai bubble" is actually an excise tax on vcs who can't tell the difference between genuine innovation and repackaged openai apis.

32. interfaces will become personalities. when every tool can talk back, vibe and tone will drive trust, loyalty, and retention. It's why I'm investing more in our design firm for the AI age @meetLCA (you can follow for more insights on designing/taste/brand that will stand out)

33. ai will kill the homepage. interfaces will get replaced by entry points that change based on who you are, what you need, and when you show up.

34. no one will pay for "ai", they’ll pay to solve a $10,000/hour problem in 3 clicks. sell outcomes, hide the ai.

35. ai is unbundling google. every vertical search engine, directory, and comparison tool is a billion-dollar opportunity in disguise.

36. every small business will get a “ghost team.” automated bookkeepers, sales agents, marketers—run by one founder and 5 bots.

37. ai-generated content is creating a monoculture of ideas. when everyone uses the same models, we get the same outputs. original human thinking is becoming the ultimate premium. be weird. weird will sell.

38. schools won’t be disrupted by ai. they’ll be disintermediated. smart teens will skip formal education, build audiences, run experiments, and learn faster. kids say they want to become creators but creators are becoming entrepreneurs. entrepreneurship becomes the most popular profession.

39. in 18 months, 80% of the “ai startup” category will look like spam. the rest will become infrastructure.

40. conversion rate product debates are obsolete. Why argue over 2 button colors when AI focus groups can test 200 variations overnight?

41. most of what we call “marketing” is about to be done by ai. humans will move upstream into storytelling, vibes, and brand energy.

42. the best hiring decision you can make this year? a head of ai ops. someone who can build workflows, glue tools, and ship outcomes.

43. the first $1b AGI startup will look like a toy at first. all world-changing interfaces do.

44. ai-powered distribution > ai-powered product. a mid product with elite reach will beat a great product with no attention every time.

45. people still hate monthly subscriptions. outcome-based pricing is still in early days. implementing this will be a competitive advantage for lots of companies. large saas wont be able to compete with you.

46. i don't know how long this window stays open, but we're in a moment where all the rules of building businesses are being rewritten. for the people playing with these new tools, creating audiences and communities, you've got an unfair advantage.

i hope you get some sleep.

[Dwarkesh Patel @dwarkesh_sp]

.@satyanadella on:

- why he doesn’t believe in AGI but does believe in 10% economic growth

- Microsoft’s new topological qubit breakthrough and gaming world models

- whether Office commoditizes LLMs or the other way around

Links below. Enjoy!

Timestamps
0:00:00 - Intro
0:05:48 - AI won't be winner-take-all
0:16:02 - World economy growing by 10%
0:22:23 - Decreasing price of intelligence
0:31:03 - Microsoft's Quantum breakthrough
0:43:35 - Microsoft's gaming world model
0:50:35 - Legal barriers to AI
0:56:30 - Getting AGI safety right
1:05:43 - 34 years at Microsoft
1:11:31 - Does Satya Nadella believe in AGI?

[Roger Zhang @Rogerust001]

2. ETH通过ETF后，由于ETH本身相对BTC更为人所认可的是应用属性，所以虽然不能进行质押，本身也和BTC的ETF一样更多场外的资金是cash in & cash out，但是因为其是整个生态的生产工具，生产工具价��上涨后会自然而然带动生态的其他代币价格上涨

[Roger Zhang @Rogerust001]

在ETH ETF通过前夕，总结下和小伙伴讨论的BTC和ETH的ETF通过两者差别：
1. BTC通过ETF，资金的进出更加直接反映在BTC的价格涨跌以及交易量上，且对于其他altcoin的传导（尤其是量方面）较弱，包括诸如ordi这样的token都表现一般般；这与BTC本身的非应用属性相关

[Roger Zhang @Rogerust001]

互联网时代所有创业企业拿融资来买量，AI时代所有AI关联创业公司拿融资来买卡；互联网时代存货的公司现在二级市场更多的看盈利，��知道这个类比AI时代会不会有变化🙄

[Roger Zhang @Rogerust001]

@hongkongdoll 晚饭券

[Roger Zhang @Rogerust001]

@PPai_Crypto 蹲一下来学习

[Roger Zhang @Rogerust001]

@CryptoBigTomato @myanTokenGeek @rickawsb 1. crypto相比较股市是24*7的，所以面对任何消息都没有消化的时间，而是直接反应，所以会出现急上急下；
2. 无论是股市债市还是Crypto（w/ 和w/o ETF）本质都是capital allocation的问题，考虑到crypto的sharpe ratio和vol，就是个风险资产，只是现在随着ETF的加入，与美股更加同质化了

[Roger Zhang @Rogerust001]

@octopusycc 看5月份的GPT5了

[Roger Zhang @Rogerust001]

@PPai_Crypto 好奇应该追市价，还是等限价单？

[Roger Zhang @Rogerust001]

@PPai_Crypto 我感觉降息或者鸽派发言被price out了，如果这次能出现哪怕鸽派的发言，都能再引起一波涨潮

[Roger Zhang @Rogerust001]

@PalioAI @XterioGames @aiarena_ ���👏

[Palio @PalioAI]

🎮 𝐏𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐨���𝐈 𝐱 𝐀𝐈 𝐀𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐚🚀
𝐅𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐨 𝐅𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐀𝐌𝐀

The brains behind @XterioGames & @aiarena_ join us for a deep dive into AI's role in gaming! 🎉

𝐸𝑥𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑡 𝐴𝐼'𝑠 𝑔𝑎𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛? 𝐷𝑜𝑛'𝑡 𝑚𝑖𝑠𝑠 𝑜𝑢𝑡!

🎁3 Palio Aura Whitelist for top AMA questions
🎁3 for lucky listeners!

[Roger Zhang @Rogerust001]

@0xKirara @Rosentica @TabinekoKIKI 这张cos好看的！

[BNB Chain @BNBCHAIN]

Another thrilling addition to opBNB, @ageofdino 🦕

With super-cheap fees and lightning-fast transactions, Web3 gaming projects will benefit massively from our Layer 2 solution.

Roar into the future with opBNB!

https://t.co/r7MebPzIvD

[Xterio @XterioGames]

👑Designed for the hit-makers of tomorrow building today

Our Ecosystem Fund leverages decades of hit-making expertise and cutting edge technology for those who believe in web3 games like we do.

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