Everyone wants a cure for Alzheimer’s. My own grandmother passed away 2 years from it after being completely healthy into her 90s.
The issue is companies like SAVA if they mislead investors, kill generalist capital investment into the biotech industry.
This makes it a PvP zone for biotech genius autists like Martin and similar types and long term reduces the propensity to experiment and drop large amounts of capital on “long shots”.
Not all capital is in bio and much more should be. Tirzeptide and soon retatutride will probably have more of a positive impact on humanity by utilitarianism philosophy yet all investment wants to be in ai. (Guilty…I work in ai)
Spacex vs Anthropic vs. OpenAI vs. Gemini
It seems people are realizing none of the frontier models are truly "1 shot" for most tasks and are accepting using chinese models for efficiency might be the right solution to a business problem based on ROI not dreams @ZssBecker mentioned this with his HR department.
I work in AI and I think we will see a commoditization as we realize a perfect frontier model isn't coming and we need cheap tokens for volume, or else we use a chinese model (xD probably a no go at most enterprise but depends on how their security staff likes to roll)
If this ends up being the case, and the "good enough" models commoditize, Spacex orbital data centers become their efficiency source, the other labs will want their own hardware solutions.
I think photonics is their best bet, using light chips could reduce energy per token to 1/100th current costs.
$QCLS and Neurophos are the only two players here in this niche, early, but huge potential market. Worth a lotto ticket for anyone imo.
If i'm Anthropic or OpenAI I want to invest asap in Photonic chips and we already see Altman announcing they will compete on cost....there is a way that promise becomes a reality, with profit...thats hardware advances...
The battle isn't over it has just started.
@bryan_johnson This is painful to read because I like you Bryan. You will learn that women don’t love the same way you love. That doesn’t make them bad. But this behavior is like taking a tiger as a pet and then being confused when it scratches your face.
Tonight you have a choice
You can be a panican; oil might rise to $200 a barrel!
Or you can realize in the short term the only possible outcome is up, infinitely. Parabolically.
Kevin Warsh, the Fed, and all boomers one-shot by AI think this is a manhattan project.
It's a unique problem where no spend is enough; we see this in CAPEX and if you handed these big tech companies free money at 0% they would pour it into capex even further.
We had >3% CPI inflation from 87 to 97....the world didn't end.
Now we have 1.8% Inflation IF removing the extreme outliers (like Oil).
If the fed uses 1.8% avg. inflation (as discussed) and takes decisive action to maintain american economic hegemony via the "AI Manhattan project", we are at the bottom. At least until oil prices significantly raise prices across the board in goods etc.
IF the Fed cuts rates liquidity will go insane. Missing this will be disasterous as an investor. You must be exposed.
If the Fed chooses to let the market cruise, or raise rates, they risk losing the AI "Cold War, Manhattan project, etc.", and we all expect a crash from this bubble in this instance anyways.
Kicking the can is just the optimal strategy here, because even if the US gets outsized inflation, it will help outgrow and inflate away the national debt.
The alternative is likely stagnation, not enough growth to service natl. debt, which would be brutally reinforced with tax raises and govt. spend being cut.
Politically, including for Fed. members since they are all political despite what anyone says, this is untennable. It's political suicide for either party.
I think everyone is aligned; and the #1 weapon in the US arsenal is the US dollar. The US Dollar is at risk at either default from stagnation, or too much inflation. But one strategy has a chance of working without ruining a political party, they will choose that strategy first until it is completely untenable (crazy inflation).
Long or wrong. the only way out is through.