$NVDA is becoming the backbone of the AI infrastructure buildout. It’s no longer just about selling GPUs, Nvidia has built an entire ecosystem around CUDA, networking, software and full AI systems, making it much harder for customers to switch away
Blackwell is driving the current cycle, while Rubin is next. The big question is how long hyperscaler AI spending can keep growing at this pace. That’s what makes Nvidia’s earnings so important: the numbers tell us what happened, but the guidance tells us where the AI cycle is heading.
$NVDA earnings tonight 🚨
headline numbers matter, but the guide matters more
Street:
> Revenue: ~$92B
> EPS: ~$2.09
> Data Center: ~$85.7B
The real questions:
→ Does Q3 guide above ~$104B?
→ How strong is Blackwell demand?
→ How quickly does Rubin ramp?
→ Can gross margins stay around ~75%?
→ Any signs AI capex is slowing?
→ China / competition commentary?
A beat alone probably isn’t enough
My view: the biggest catalyst is evidence that growth is accelerating again, not just that they beat estimates.
🚨 $WMT EARNINGS THURSDAY 20th (Before Open)
> EPS est: $0.74
> Revenue est: $186.9B
> Focus: consumer + e-commerce
$WMT sees EVERYTHING
Low-income consumer
Middle-income consumer
Grocery
E-commerce
This could be the most important retail report of the week 👀
🚨 $TGT EARNINGS WEDNESDAY 19th (Before Open)
$TGT is one of the best reads on the American consumer
Margins + traffic + guidance matter more than the headline EPS.
> EPS est: $2.32
> Revenue est: ~$31.8B
> Focus: consumer spending
Consumer strength gets tested Wednesday 👀
🚨 $LOW EARNINGS WEDNESDAY 19th (Before Open)
#Lowe gives us another read on the US consumer + housing market
> EPS est: $4.23
> Revenue est: ~$24.5B
🚨 $HD EARNINGS TUESDAY 18th (before open)
One of the biggest reads on the US housing market
If consumers are still spending on big-ticket home projects, that’s a bullish signal
> EPS est: $4.73
> Revenue est: $47.2B
Focus: housing + consumer spending
Watch the guidance 👀
The older I get, the more I realise that trading was never really about predicting the next move.
It’s about learning how to sit with uncertainty without letting it control you.
You can have the best setup, the strongest conviction, and still be wrong. You can do everything “right” and still take a loss. And sometimes you can make money for all the wrong reasons.
That’s what makes the market such a brutal teacher.
It slowly exposes your impatience, your ego, your need to be right, your fear of missing out, and your tendency to turn one bad decision into five.
Eventually you stop looking for certainty.
You start looking for clarity.
You stop chasing every move.
You start waiting for the ones that actually matter.
And maybe that’s the deeper lesson: the goal isn’t to control the market.
It’s to become disciplined enough that the market can’t control you.
🚨 CPI DATA IS OUT 🚨
US CPI came in at 3.4% YoY vs 3.4% expected 🟡
Core CPI came in at 2.5% YoY vs 2.5% expected 🟡
MoM CPI: +0.1% vs +0.1% expected 🟡
MoM Core CPI: +0.2% vs +0.2% expected 🟡
Inflation came in exactly in line with expectations.
CPI announcement in 10 minutes.
Nikkei futures have been ripping higher continuing the afternoon move through the overnight session and finally hitting ¥68,000.
The question now: can it keep pushing after CPI?
A move this strong ahead of the data usually means a lot of the CPI expectation is already priced in, which can create a “buy the news” reaction if the numbers come in as expected.
But this CPI is one I wouldn’t take for granted.
Expect volatility.