📋 Husband & Father | Truth seeker, curious about: investing, stoicism, Mungerisms, compounding across the human condition , healthspan and financial freedom.
@pangpangyanjiu1 What’s to worry about? It’s not like the current swipe product path will help with growth as is. Meanwhile the AI matching might have growth tailwinds that can serve as strong asymmetrical catalysts.
@Geiger_Capital How is this bullish? Neutral at best. Cepeda trending higher relative to Feb’26. All polls hint at Abelardo being the candidate the left wants to go against in 2nd round. This is less Milei and more so a coin flip between Kast and Lula vs. Bolsonaro. Anchor more on the latter.
@juanortega3 Juan, acá fue un hueco tapando otro hueco. Utilizando caja menor de Albany, Hochul adportas de elecciones transpasando $4B a NYC. Estudiar para no emular. Demagogia.
@Geiger_Capital Inflation worst across all LatAm markets. High rates clamping down investments. Congress majorities held by the extreme left. Fiscal health in shambles. All time high cocaine exports. Violent armed groups entrenched in the economy. There no asymmetric alpha left.
@MisterAccord Funny how math works. Given refi guidelines, going forward the stock’s intrinsic value increases by $0.11-0.14 every single quarter purely from amortization and another $0.23-0.27/share per quarter in equity value from cash accumulation. Hurray for forced deleveraging!
@Projectcynic You’re getting triggered from isolated commentary in the call. Every company (even Mag7) has had technical debt at some point. All code needs to be re-written with AI at some point. New technology has come up in the past 3 months that could play a hand in re-shaping 2.0 plans.
@Projectcynic Negatives
-Q2 EBITDA guided down 20% from Q1. Peak margins behind us.
-2.0 delayed Q2→Q4. No product catalyst for 6 months.
-Revenue still -14% Y/Y post-reset. When does it moderate?
- SBC +161% to $11M
-Refi at SOFR+8%. No word on FCF sweep constraints (per buybacks)
@Projectcynic By December 2026, BMBL at $4.2-4.4 would be trading at 2.2-2.8x forward EBITDA. For context, here’s what else trades at sub-3x: Essentially nothing with this margin profile. You’d have to go to coal companies, dying newspapers, or pre-bankruptcy situations. Bonkers!
Life is too short to worry about little things. Have fun. Fall in love. Regret nothing, and don't let people bring you down. Study, think, create, and grow. Teach yourself and teach others.
You enter a warp somewhere around the age of 18 and then come out of that warp at 35
The rest of your life is determined by what you did and what decisions you made in that time period
@MultibaggerRsch So much more to expand on. TRA buyout at 50% discount. $60M per year tax shield (retained post TRA, worth more than current market cap). Ownership cleanup, Blackstone exit (short term overhang). Debt refinancing. Trading at 75% discount (2.5x vs. 10x EV/EBITDA) vs. Match. $BMBL
@emprendencristo Estimado, buena catarsis bursatil. En mi caso, reduzco el modelo a simples observaciones. Cada vez que salgo, lo que veo son gente poniendose Hoka, On, Adidas, Vuori, Uniqlo y Lululemon. Es un ajuste cultural dificil de modelar. Como diria Warren, “too hard” pile.
@valcosecurities@PotentialSeekin It’s likely a combination of contractual obligation (registration rights) and practical necessity (enabling an orderly exit and potentially facilitating a structural simplification of the Up-C).
Warren Buffett: "If I can add 1% or 5% to my net worth by being around people who make me want to throw up, I'm not interested."
"If you go into business with somebody who causes your stomach to churn, I say that's a lot like marrying for money. It's probably not a very good idea under any circumstances, but it's absolutely crazy if you're already rich."
@realroseceline Framed/tailored for the average investor? Buffet/Munger have on repeated occasions mentioned that with sub $1M AUM they could easily do 50% returns. Albeit in that environment they would most likely fish where they have the most edge, which is not in high quality.
@colinvestor De acuerdo doc, una asimetría muy desfavorable. Incluso en escenario que no gane Cepeda, es un congreso/senado dividido, con un pais sobre-endeudado, un empresariado asediado y con riesgos inflacionarios vigentes proximos 18-24 meses. Vendí toda mi posición en Colombia en Enero.
@BowTiedGlobe At TRM $3.650 exchange rates it doesn’t feel cheap anymore. Average dining out for two is $100.000 or more. Most of the metropolis have a real estate bubble, $12M COP for m2? The good old days are behind us.