B E N

Son, husband, father and friend. beloved and believer. passionate about all things macro.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

As shown in our analysis below, there is a near-perfect correlation between oil prices and US CPI inflation.

Oil prices are up another +22% since the last CPI inflation report was released on August 12th.

It's pretty clear what comes next.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

BREAKING: US 30-year bond yield hits 5.35%, its highest level in 19 years.

This comes right after hot PPI data showed producer prices rising faster than expected, adding to inflation fears.

It's also happening the same day the US Treasury tripled its bond buyback to $6 billion, an effort meant to bring yields down.

Is the Treasury's own effort failing to control this yield crisis?

[B E N @RuncimanBen]

😳

[Yuto 🇯🇵 @yutokanzakireal]

彼らは言う、ハウスはいつも勝つ。

今回、日本はただハウスに対して賭けるだけではない。

日本はハウス全体を倒す。

今回、システム全体がマージンコールを受ける。

[B E N @RuncimanBen]

Pride comes before a fall

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

Incredible quote by Bessent…

"I am the house now."

[Fred Krueger @dotkrueger]

Over the next 7 years, China will dump all of their US Treasury reserves and replace them with Gold.

We are moving into a hard money world. US Treasuries are trash.

[TFTC @TFTC21]

"Insurance companies would rather own Treasuries at 5% all day long than private credit. The fact that they're not tells you the problem is way worse than anybody thinks."

@LukeGromen on the hidden crisis at the long end.

[Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" @LawrenceLepard]

Holy Crap! check out this nugget highlighted by Luke Gromen @LukeGromen this week. Want to know what one possible fuse is for the next Big Print, check out Nick Nemeth's substack (free linked below):

https://t.co/RPT1G3akGO

Incredible.

[NoLimit @NoLimitGains]

Gold and silver became legal tender in Texas yesterday under HB 1056.

Only privately produced specie marked with weight and purity. Nothing that looks government issued.

And nobody has to accept it. Businesses, agencies, individuals, all optional.

The part that actually matters starts May 2027.

That’s when the Comptroller can run an electronic payment system backed by bullion held in the Texas Bullion Depository.

Deposit metal, get a card, spend it anywhere. The merchant sees a normal transaction.

So the legal tender bit is mostly symbolic. The real move is a US state building the rails to make metal spendable.

Florida, Arkansas and Missouri are working on similar laws.

Same year gold overtook Treasuries as the largest reserve asset globally.

Interesting.

[Fthegurus @fthegurus]

The world’s 10 most valuable assets right now:

1. Gold — $32.46T
2. NVIDIA — $5.12T
3. Apple — $4.56T
4. Alphabet — $4.15T
5. Silver — $3.84T
6. Microsoft — $3.68T
7. Amazon — $2.81T
8. TSMC — $2.16T
9. SpaceX — $1.80T
10. Saudi Aramco — $1.68T

In the last 50 years, only one name on this list has never left the top 10.

It isn’t a company.

Gold has outlasted wars, tech revolutions, the dot-com bubble, the financial crisis, and pandemics — while every corporate champion of the 1970s and 1980s has been replaced.

Sometimes the safest bet is the asset that doesn’t need to reinvent itself every decade.

[SilverTrade @silvertrade]

🚨Wikileaks Releases 1974 State Dept Cable Confirming Gold Futures Market Was Created for Price Suppression ⚠️

⚡️For those who missed our prior report, Wikileaks has released a 1974 State Dept cable confirming that the US Deep State CREATED the gold futures market to DIMINISH DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL GOLD:

"TO THE DEALERS’ EXPECTATIONS, WILL BE THE FORMATION OF A SIZABLE GOLD FUTURES MARKET. EACH OF THE DEALERS EXPRESSED THE BELIEF THAT THE FUTURES MARKET WOULD BE OF SIGNIFICANT PROPORTION & PHYSICAL TRADING WOULD BE MINISCULE BY COMPARISON.

ALSO EXPRESSED WAS THE EXPECTATION THAT LARGE VOLUME FUTURES DEALING WOULD CREATE A HIGHLY VOLATILE MARKET.

IN TURN, THE VOLATILE PRICE MOVEMENTS WOULD DIMINISH THE INITIAL DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL HOLDING & MOST LIKELY NEGATE LONG-TERM HOARDING BY U.S. CITIZENS…"

https://t.co/QBaObskr8H

[B E N @RuncimanBen]

Scott saying the quiet part out loud

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

WHAT IF the biggest bubble of our lifetime isn't crypto?

Not AI stocks.
Not real estate.

What if it's the one asset every pension fund, every retiree, every "safe" portfolio is loaded with?

Bonds.

200 years of rate cycles say the same thing:
Every peak lasts 56–67 years.
The 1981 top was 14% yields.
The 2020 bottom was 0%.

39 years of falling rates just ended.

What if we're now at the start of the next 50-year cycle — upward?

Most investors have never managed money in a rising rate world.
Their entire career happened inside the bull.

The unwind has barely started.
And no one is talking about it.

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

During the greatest gold bull market in history, gold increased 24×... yet most investors wouldn't have been able to stomach the volatility.

During that bull market, gold suffered four pullbacks of more than 20%:

- 1973 (4 months): -29% / 100% higher four months later

- 1974 (3 months): -26% / 50% higher five months later

- 1975-76 (9 months): -49% / 150% higher within 13 months

- 1978 (1 month): -23% / 320% higher within 14 months

None of these pullbacks marked the end of the bull market... Each set the stage for the next major advance, with the final rally being the most explosive.

Today, we are in a secular gold bull market and the current pullback is setting the stage for the next upswing.

The fear of rate hikes will subside as fiscal constraints become impossible to ignore.

Gold will rise to new all-time highs.

[B E N @RuncimanBen]

FYI

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

This has arguably been one of the most consequential 20-day periods of America’s history.

Two interventions to save the Treasury market.

Both failed.

We may look back on this as America’s emerging-market moment.

None of us own enough hard assets.

https://t.co/RnZqdPy0sK

[MONETARY MAYHEM @MONETARY_MAYHEM]

Live footage of sovereign bond yield interventions

[B E N @RuncimanBen]

😆👌

[VBL’s Ghost @Sorenthek]

Devious bastards!!!

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Total US debt officially hits $40 trillion for the first time in history.

That's $119,699 in US debt for every American.

This puts the total US debt balance up +$17 trillion since 2020 and +$30 trillion since 2008.

We are on an unsustainable fiscal path.

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

We are experiencing a major monetary gap closing right before our eyes.

Gold is money. Everything else is credit.

https://t.co/by6wLgPhCw

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨 THERE'S NO STOPPING JAPAN'S ECONOMIC CRISIS

Japan's 2-year bond yield just hit 1.692%, its highest level in 31 years. It was negative in early 2024.

That's a rise of nearly 170 basis points from below zero in just two years.

The 5-year is at 2.173%, also a 31-year high, and the 10-year is at 2.929%, a 30-year high. The entire curve is repricing at once, not just the short end.

Japan already carries debt worth around 205% of GDP, while Q2 GDP growth came in at just 1.1% annualized versus 2.0% expected.

Rising debt, weakening growth, a falling currency and higher borrowing costs are all hitting Japan at the same time.

It is the worst combination a country can face.