The reality is people love simple shit.
It makes things “easy” to understand and when people feel like they understand it makes them feel good.
“Bitcoin has always been down in mid term years during X, Y and Z months so expect the same, don’t overcomplicate it”
“Bitcoin always has its major run after the halving, every 4 years, don’t overcomplicate it”
“Bitcoins last cycle was X days, so the fact we topped after X days this time too means the cycle is over, don’t overcomplicate it”
“Sell in may and go away, don’t overcomplicate it”
“Bitcoin always performs poorly in Q2, so expect a dip in X month, don’t overcomplicate it”
The reality is markets are anything but simple and often quite complicated and nuanced- but if you try explaining this to the average person it’s going to confuse them and/or make them feel in over their heads- you won’t resonate with many except for those that actually employ critical thinking and have the ability (and will) to try and understand the nuance.
A global market like this has 1000 factors affecting it every day- the month of the year we are in is likely not going to be the primary determinant as to whether the market is “up” or “down”.
Yes there may be some things that happen during specific months of the year that *might* have *some* effect on global markets consistently, year after year, but this is often impossible to quantify and it ignores the reality which is that at any given time there are a 100 other factors also at play, many of which probably have a more measurable effect on these markets than the time of year that it is.
Markets are complicated but trying to explain this to the masses doesn’t get views and engagement- so many find success in oversimplifying it.
This is also why you often see those global market news channel segments on TV where the host is drawing a simple trend line (with the occasional head and shoulders thrown in) on their charts to demonstrate why they expect price to go up or down - because they know if they try to explain liquidity, order flow, open interest and leverage it’s going to go over their audiences’ heads and they will lose them.
So instead, you get “August is typically a bad month for Bitcoin, expect a big drop” and when we coincidentally do have a bearish August (because of some totally unrelated reason) people think that there is now some truth to this idea that Bitcoin doesn’t like the month of August and so the oversimplified logic being used becomes something the average person latches on to even more.
Yes, it’s important to sometimes try and “keep things simple” but there is a difference between that and oversimplifying things in what is a very complicated and nuanced world.
The @vibes_tcg drops Birb & Pengu this Friday.
So we let them battle a little early.
Two epic IPs. The community picks the winner.
You Decide. Vote below. 👇
OS is making moves.
This is the moment everyone in the space should be paying attention to.
Whether you’re a creator, collector, or traders, now’s the time to jump in. 😎
@opensea LFG ! ❤️
⛵️ OPENSEA REFBACK
2 days left until they close the option to claim back the commission you spent on OPENSEA. I decided not to claim it.
If you want to claim it — I have a question: why the hell were you farming the project's points in the first place? 🤔 Because everyone was farming? And now you wanna claim it back because everyone's claiming it back?
What are you gonna spend the refunded money on? Farming a new project? You think it's better than OS?
Short answer: I see zero point in claiming back the spent commission.
OPENSEA decided to postpone the TGE because the market is shit, and there's no real desire to come out at 300m. For us, us - this is a good sign. 💪
Yes, there's uncertainty now about how long to wait for the TGE. And it might not be 1-3 months. Could easily be 9-12. I think until we see a normal market - there's nothing to wait for.
There are also doubts about whether it's worth leaving all the points in. They're about to open futures for everyone soon. They'll 100% be sprinkling points there. And if big volumes come in - i hope seasons will not get extended forever again.
Yes, the guys completely missed every opportunity and probably missed like 2 bull runs to get to TGE. No argument there. But unlike the ruggers (who recently came out at 200m) they postponed the TGE - which means they actually give a damn about a high valuation.
If you have a balanced farm - you can totally play it 50/50: claim back half of the spent fees, but stay in the game.
Personally, I decided not to twitch and leave all the points in. But as you know, I often love points with dreams of riches 🤑 - which often punishes me.
So what are you doing?
Claim the fees here 👉 https://t.co/clJyt2EtrM
our team has been onboarding testers for os mobile 1-by-1 via live meetings, collecting real-time feedback.
literally hundreds of sessions with our engineers observing reactions live. which has led to significant improvements and new features.
this is a product people love. and we can’t wait to get it into everyone’s hands.
all of your assets. all of your wallets. all of your chains. all in one place. all in your pocket.