@MartinShkreli@shortcut Yeah forecasting ability is trash and formulas hardly reference where they should so much finding errors and rework it’s quicker to build from scratch impressive compared to other competitors out there but premature
I’ve observed a few hi stakes negotiations over the years and one tactic I’ve seen work well over and over is when you find the leverage to bring your opponent to the edge of the cliff, hold them over the cliff so they see the abyss and threaten to push them off.
Turns out when you then don’t push them, but back off, they often develop Stockholm syndrome and give you more than you would have otherwise because they are thankful for the reprieve.
I don’t know that this is the plan here but the conditions for that are the same.
75 countries are on a 90 day shot clock to get a grand bargain done. Based on what I’ve heard from some of them, they are thankful for a chance to egress off the tariff highway and find a new normal - even if that’s much worse for them than what it was previously.
Despite the Fed tightening economic conditions, the economy has continued to power ahead, fueled by consumers with large excess savings. However, the dynamic is beginning to shift moving into the second half of the year
Part of the confusion about recession rn is because the fake recession signals we had 12 mths - the bullwhip in global manufacturing & the big squeeze on real incomes - are starting to unwind while we are simultaneously getting genuine demand destruction from monetary policy