Ryan

Horse Racing Handicapper | Betting The Odds on @YouTube & @SubstackInc | Subscribe & get an eBook to help you handicap more consistently ↓

[Ryan @RyanPip_]

@RacingDownWind You too this week!

[Ryan @RyanPip_]

Belmont Racing Festival at Saratoga Wednesday Selections

New York Showcase Day

[Ryan @RyanPip_]

BAQ Trends Last Week

• Posts 1-3 won 8-of-12 dirt sprints
• 6-of-8 turf sprints were won by posts 1-3
• Stalkers were 4-for-7 in dirt mile races

[Ryan @RyanPip_]

Belmont at the Big A Spring Meet Track Profile Week Three

• Early runners are winning 52% of mile races
• Posts 4-6 are winning 51% of dirt sprints
• 50% of turf routes have been won by early runners, but outer turf routes, they are 1-for-12

[Ryan @RyanPip_]

Curious how everyone with way more knowledge on this issue would feel about this idea.

What are the pros and cons?

[1MinuteToPost @1MinutetoPost]

I like the idea of an equal rebate for everyone that is on a sliding scale.

20 MTP 10%
10 MTP 5%
5 MTP 2.5%
2MTP to Post time 0%

And wagers cannot be cancelled.

It would encourage players and syndicates to wager early.

[Ryan @RyanPip_]

Most bettors say they want to “bet better.”

The problem is that they never define what that actually means.

They keep handicapping and betting the same way…Hoping for a different result.

Reverse engineer it. Know your target, bet to make that goal, pass when it doesn’t fit.

[Ryan @RyanPip_]

Churchill Downs Friday Selections

[Ryan @RyanPip_]

A race can be handicapped correctly and still be a terrible betting opportunity.

That’s the disconnect most never realize.

Picking winners and making profitable bets are not the same thing.

[Ryan @RyanPip_]

Churchill Downs Thursday Selections

[Ryan @RyanPip_]

CD Profile cont.

• Closers are winning 60% of turf routes. Last week, they were 4-for-9.

One of the sneakier biases is that posts 7+ are winning 44% of turf routes. They were 4-for-9 last week.

See the full profile breakdowns for Churchill Downs ⬇️

https://t.co/vqznWNOCfn

[Ryan @RyanPip_]

Churchill Downs Spring Meet Track Profile Week Three

• Early runners are winning 48% of dirt sprints. Last week, they were 8-for-13. Watch posts 1-3 this week, since they were 7-for-13 in week three.

• Posts 4-6 are winning 50% of dirt routes. Last week, they were 5-for-7.

[Ryan @RyanPip_]

Outer Turf Routes

Early speed is not as strong on the outer turf. They are 1-for-10 overall, and that lone win came last week.

Stalkers went 3-for-5 last week and are winning 50% of races so far. Closers are right behind, winning 4-of-the-10 races.

[Ryan @RyanPip_]

🧵 Belmont at the Big A Spring Meet Track Profile Week Two

Inside posts had a terrible time last week at BAQ in the one-turn dirt races.

Also, be sure to check out how the outer turf is playing since it is opposite of the rest of the turf routes.

[Ryan @RyanPip_]

Turf Routes

Early runners are controlling the turf routes so far, being 6-for-11 over the two weeks. This past week, they were 3-for-5.

[Ryan @RyanPip_]

Too many bettors are conditioned to “like” horses.

That’s the problem.

Because liking a horse has nothing to do with whether it’s a good bet.

You don’t need to like a horse.

You need to understand its chances.