Ryan

Software engineer exploring the world of sports betting

[Ryan @RyanPlusEV]

On PrizePicks, picks that win 51% of the time lose you more than 25% PER BET 📉

So, how often do your picks have to win to make money?

How much does a small edge return in profits?

Let's break down a $100 6-pick PrizePicks slip.

Anatomy of a Pick'em Slip - a thread 🧵

[Ryan @RyanPlusEV]

@TotallyUnders I wrote it myself, just some Python.

[Ryan @RyanPlusEV]

I ran 100,000 simulations of my bets from October-December 2023.

Profit: $28,854.35
Max drawdown: -$22,329.65

Let's talk about variance.

[Ryan @RyanPlusEV]

I think that's all I've got.

Originators, I'm curious on your thoughts regarding the "north star" and how to evaluate your system and process during times of variance.

Thanks for reading if you got this far, let me know if there's anything else you're interested in seeing.

[Ryan @RyanPlusEV]

In reality, most people will have instances of multiple bets on the same event, where outcomes are correlated.

This isn't represented in the first set of sims, but I did do a few runs where I kept all bets in the same order within a day, and simply randomized the days.

It seems that the effect this has is actually condensing the distribution a bit. I would guess that this is just due to my sample of days, the volume of bets each day, and the variance within each day from my sample.

The atomic units I am randomizing are fewer (92 days, not 2400 bets), and so this on it's own is probably responsible for the condensed distribution.

Although the change to the distribution would be dependent on the nature and strength of correlations, I would expect in general correlated events would increase variance.

I'm not a statistician. I think I took one stats class in college - this is all mostly intuitive analysis of what I've visualized.

[Ryan @RyanPlusEV]

@MasterBettor44 @PlusEVAnalytics @capjack2000 Let’s see the math on how you got .4% from that, more interested in that than seeing what the bet is

[Ryan @RyanPlusEV]

PrizePick’s goal when choosing props on average is probably to get it as close to 50/50 as possible, so they have the highest chance of profiting per pick (maybe adjusted for standard over/under biases).

But yeah, the -104 I’m talking about is no-vig, fair value calculation. To find something worth taking, it usually has to be something close to -140 or shorter on books (with vig) in order to devig to something with -127 FV, where the implied probability is high enough for it to be a profitable pick.

[Ryan @RyanPlusEV]

On PrizePicks, picks that win 51% of the time lose you more than 25% PER BET 📉

So, how often do your picks have to win to make money?

How much does a small edge return in profits?

Let's break down a $100 6-pick PrizePicks slip.

Anatomy of a Pick'em Slip - a thread 🧵

[Ryan @RyanPlusEV]

@Cooper_Norman_ Fair odds meaning no-vig. Your example would be roughly -115 fair odds (no-vig), or an implied probability of 53.49% per leg, and so would be slightly losing.

[Ryan @RyanPlusEV]

Alternate picks for add ons/replacements.

Any combination with this free pick should be quite +EV:

- Saquon Barkley u0.5 TD
- Malcolm Brogdon o0.5 Steals + Blocks
- Stephen Curry o10.0 Reb + Asts
- Herbert Jones o3.5 Reb

These on their own are break even or very slightly -EV, but combined with a free pick are still +EV slips and the best plays on UD now.

[Ryan @RyanPlusEV]

🚨Underdog Promo🚨

1️⃣ Kenneth Walker III over 0.5 total yards 🔒
2️⃣ Spencer Dinwiddie o6.0 assists 🎯

Books have Dinwiddie at 6.5, some even favoring the over, clear value.

[Ryan @RyanPlusEV]

@Rhapp9 @AlexMonahan100 The math never works out with them, no matter the type of slip.

[Ryan @RyanPlusEV]

Brunson o7.5 assists is heavily favored by the books and one of the sharpest books, Pinnacle, has this line set at -151/+113.

Fair value is probably somewhere around -125, we only need > -122 to be profitable.

There is also likely some positive correlation of this slip with OG.

[Ryan @RyanPlusEV]

☕️ Early morning value

PrizePicks 5-pick flex slip

https://t.co/Q4I2pFfRfP

[Ryan @RyanPlusEV]

James Harden o30.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts

Same thing!

PrizePicks is the only book listing this line at 30.5, and it’s still there at the time I’m posting this.

16 other books I saw all have his line at 31.5.

[Ryan @RyanPlusEV]

Donovan Mitchell o34.5 Pts + Rebs

Most books have his line set to either 35.5 or 36.5, and DK had over 34.5 set at -140.

A very clear outlier with very clear value, detected with @OddsJam’s Fantasy Optimizer.