Ryan. Reeves

Jesus-follower who invests ⬇️
Trying to help people save time and boost their investment returns.

[Ryan Reeves @RyanReeves_]

2/3 https://t.co/8BpmjR0DmX

[Ryan Reeves @RyanReeves_]

What are some of the best comp plans you've ever seen?

A few that come to mind:

1. Amazon

- No annual bonuses because it promotes shorter term thinking
- Equity awards for Jassy are vested over 10 years, 80% of which is years 5-10
- Long-term incentives are solely based on the long-term stock price as operating metrics can be gamed

2. MercadoLibre

- For the long-term retention plan, 50% of the 6-year equity awards are linked to the stock price but paid in cash. The other 50% is fixed and also paid in cash. Minimal dilution.

3. Constellation Software

- Bonuses are based on a combination of ROIC and net revenue growth. If ROIC < 5%, no bonus. Then at least 75% of after-tax bonus must be used to buy stock on the open market and held for at least four years.

4. Markel

- Long-term incentives are based on this simple formula:

(50% * five-year average operating income goals) + (50% * five-year CAGR in TSR (total shareholder return) goals)

What else?

[Ralph Molina @ralphinvests]

In conjunction with my breakdown of $AMNF on @RyanReeves_ podcast, I am pleased to share the 50-page Research Report I wrote in 2021.

This deep dive report not only gave me the conviction to invest 100% of my net worth, but it also caught the attention of the Board and led me to being hired by the CEO as a consultant in 2025.

Full report: https://t.co/eNbpb67JEG

[Ryan Reeves @RyanReeves_]

Ralph is a close friend and a talented investor. He does a ton of scuttlebutt and is in the market for his next role. Check it out!

[Ryan Reeves @RyanReeves_]

Is $HOOD prediction market already almost 2x as large as simple equities? 😅

[Ryan Reeves @RyanReeves_]

Also, $100 mil for this?

[Ryan Reeves @RyanReeves_]

Wait, Adyen does M&amp;A? I thought that was their whole thing -- that they don't. $adyen
https://t.co/kExNFSZYxP

[Ryan Reeves @RyanReeves_]

Would you be able to hold this portfolio for 10 years and not look at it? What would you change?

1. $AMZN
2. $ASML
3. $LNG
4. $SPGI
5. $TDG
6. $VMC
7. $ISRG
8. $DHR
9. $WM
10. $AWK

[Ryan Reeves @RyanReeves_]

Some that didn't quite make the cut:
11. $BN
12. $SHW
13. $DE
14. $CME
15. $JOE
16. $LLY
17. $DIS
18. $GOOGL
19. $JPM
20. $PWR

[Ryan Reeves @RyanReeves_]

Why have I not been long $FIX 🤦‍♂️

[Ryan Reeves @RyanReeves_]

Awful quarter. I made many mistakes. No excuses.

Link to the letter:
https://t.co/qd3hQUmSZt

[Ryan Reeves @RyanReeves_]

Wait, so &lt;9x NTM EBIT was a rich deal when earnings were estimated to grow &gt;1,000% 😂

Guess 100x TTM but still...

[Ryan Reeves @RyanReeves_]

One under-discussed thing -- the US will likely be the AI winner for the foreseeable future because we have abundant natural gas.

You can't build huge 1 GW data centers without knowing you have the natural gas secured.

[Ryan Reeves @RyanReeves_]

If you look out a bit further, China's nuclear rush could pose a threat but they still probably reach parity at 100 GW of nuclear by 2030. The problem is they have a goal of 200 GW of nuclear by 2035 and we don't have anything cooking. SMRs better ramp up!

[Ryan Reeves @RyanReeves_]

A twist on this whole thing would be that higher oil prices would lead to more drilling/fracking and we'd just continue to stockpile natural gas. If all of our natural gas was used on data centers (of course, that is not possible) we'd have enough for roughly 700 GW annually. That is an insane amount of gas 🇺🇸

Who would have thought that fracking would lay the foundation for the AI revolution?

[Ryan Reeves @RyanReeves_]

If SpaceX goes public at $1.25 trillion, then the IPO date will be June 9th and they’ll sell the precise number of shares to have 2.976 billion outstanding

iykyk

[Ryan Reeves @RyanReeves_]

Every $TOST exec has this fun fact lol:

[Ryan Reeves @RyanReeves_]

$MELI revenue growth if you strip out credit revenues

Disc: long $MELI

[Ryan Reeves @RyanReeves_]

A whole lot of value was captured by the public since Nvidia IPO'd at 1/1,000th the valuation that SpaceX might.

[Ryan Reeves @RyanReeves_]

I've been early/wrong on $DUOL thus far and I know this isn't guidance but new CFO basically outlining they could get to $2.5 billion in revenue by end of 2028.

Based on the 2026 guide ($1.223 billion), that's a doubling from 2026 to 2028, which would imply a re-acceleration back 40% revenue growth at some point.

Market clearly doesn't believe it though.